IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i2p607-d1316585.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Urban Metro Section Flow Forecasting Method Combining Time Series Decomposition and a Generative Adversarial Network

Author

Listed:
  • Maosheng Li

    (School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China)

  • Chen Zhang

    (Smart Transportation Key Laboratory of Hunan Province, Central South University, No. 22 South Shaoshan Road, Changsha 410075, China)

Abstract

Urban metro cross-section flow is the passenger flow that travels through a metro section. Its volume is a critical parameter for planning operation diagrams and improving the service quality of urban subway systems. This makes it possible to better plan the drive for the sustainable development of a city. This paper proposes an improved model for predicting urban metro section flow, combining time series decomposition and a generative adversarial network. First, an urban metro section flow sequence is decomposed using EMD (Empirical Mode Decomposition) into several IMFs (Intrinsic Mode Functions) and a trend function. The sum of all the IMF components is treated as the periodic component, and the trend function is considered the trend component, which are fitted by Fourier series function and spline interpolation, respectively. By subtracting the sum of the periodic and trend components from the urban metro section flow sequence, the error is regarded as the residual component. Finally, a GAN (generative adversarial network) based on the fusion graph convolutional neural network is used to predict the new residual component, which considers the spatial correlation between different sites of urban metro sections. The Chengdu urban metro system data in China show that the proposed model, through incorporating EMD and a generative adversarial network, achieves a 15–20% improvement in prediction accuracy at the cost of a 10% increase in the calculation time, meaning it demonstrates good prediction accuracy and reliability.

Suggested Citation

  • Maosheng Li & Chen Zhang, 2024. "An Urban Metro Section Flow Forecasting Method Combining Time Series Decomposition and a Generative Adversarial Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-19, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:2:p:607-:d:1316585
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/2/607/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/2/607/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Mu-Chen & Wei, Yu, 2011. "Exploring time variants for short-term passenger flow," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 488-498.
    2. Deepak Gupta & Mahardhika Pratama & Zhenyuan Ma & Jun Li & Mukesh Prasad, 2019. "Financial time series forecasting using twin support vector regression," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-27, March.
    3. Huang, Haichao & Chen, Jingya & Sun, Rui & Wang, Shuang, 2022. "Short-term traffic prediction based on time series decomposition," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 585(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huang, Hai-chao & Chen, Jing-ya & Shi, Bao-cun & He, Hong-di, 2023. "Multi-step forecasting of short-term traffic flow based on Intrinsic Pattern Transform," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 621(C).
    2. Kamaladdin Fataliyev & Aneesh Chivukula & Mukesh Prasad & Wei Liu, 2021. "Stock Market Analysis with Text Data: A Review," Papers 2106.12985, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    3. Sumit Saroha & Marta Zurek-Mortka & Jerzy Ryszard Szymanski & Vineet Shekher & Pardeep Singla, 2021. "Forecasting of Market Clearing Volume Using Wavelet Packet-Based Neural Networks with Tracking Signals," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-21, September.
    4. Zhang, Weibin & Zha, Huazhu & Zhang, Shuai & Ma, Lei, 2023. "Road section traffic flow prediction method based on the traffic factor state network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    5. Xuliang Tang & Heng Wan & Weiwen Wang & Mengxu Gu & Linfeng Wang & Linfeng Gan, 2023. "Lithium-Ion Battery Remaining Useful Life Prediction Based on Hybrid Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-18, April.
    6. Zefan Dong & Yonghui Zhou, 2024. "A Novel Hybrid Model for Financial Forecasting Based on CEEMDAN-SE and ARIMA-CNN-LSTM," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-16, August.
    7. Lu, Hongfang & Ma, Xin & Huang, Kun & Azimi, Mohammadamin, 2020. "Prediction of offshore wind farm power using a novel two-stage model combining kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model with a multi-objective grey wolf optimizer," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Sanghyuk Yoo & Sangyong Jeon & Seunghwan Jeong & Heesoo Lee & Hosun Ryou & Taehyun Park & Yeonji Choi & Kyongjoo Oh, 2021. "Prediction of the Change Points in Stock Markets Using DAE-LSTM," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-15, October.
    9. Xiangzhou Chen & Zhi Long, 2023. "E-Commerce Enterprises Financial Risk Prediction Based on FA-PSO-LSTM Neural Network Deep Learning Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, March.
    10. Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & Jeon, Jooyoung, 2021. "Treating and Pruning: New approaches to forecasting model selection and combination using prediction intervals," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 547-568.
    11. Yang, Kailing & Zhang, Xi & Luo, Haojia & Hou, Xianping & Lin, Yu & Wu, Jingyu & Yu, Liang, 2024. "Predicting energy prices based on a novel hybrid machine learning: Comprehensive study of multi-step price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    12. Moreno, Sinvaldo Rodrigues & Seman, Laio Oriel & Stefenon, Stefano Frizzo & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos & Mariani, Viviana Cocco, 2024. "Enhancing wind speed forecasting through synergy of machine learning, singular spectral analysis, and variational mode decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    13. Lin, Yu & Lu, Qin & Tan, Bin & Yu, Yuanyuan, 2022. "Forecasting energy prices using a novel hybrid model with variational mode decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    14. Dongsu Kim & Yongjun Lee & Kyungil Chin & Pedro J. Mago & Heejin Cho & Jian Zhang, 2023. "Implementation of a Long Short-Term Memory Transfer Learning (LSTM-TL)-Based Data-Driven Model for Building Energy Demand Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, January.
    15. Yuan, Hong & Ma, Xin & Ma, Minda & Ma, Juan, 2024. "Hybrid framework combining grey system model with Gaussian process and STL for CO2 emissions forecasting in developed countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    16. He, Deqiang & Yang, Yanjie & Chen, Yanjun & Deng, Jianxin & Shan, Sheng & Liu, Jianren & Li, Xianwang, 2020. "An integrated optimization model of metro energy consumption based on regenerative energy and passenger transfer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    17. Yang, Xin & Xue, Qiuchi & Ding, Meiling & Wu, Jianjun & Gao, Ziyou, 2021. "Short-term prediction of passenger volume for urban rail systems: A deep learning approach based on smart-card data," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    18. Seyed Mehrzad Asaad Sajadi & Pouya Khodaee & Ehsan Hajizadeh & Sabri Farhadi & Sohaib Dastgoshade & Bo Du, 2022. "Deep Learning-Based Methods for Forecasting Brent Crude Oil Return Considering COVID-19 Pandemic Effect," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-23, October.
    19. Kang, Yanfei & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Petropoulos, Fotios & Athiniotis, Nikolaos & Li, Feng & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2021. "Déjà vu: A data-centric forecasting approach through time series cross-similarity," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 719-731.
    20. Xie, Yiwei & Hu, Pingfang & Zhu, Na & Lei, Fei & Xing, Lu & Xu, Linghong & Sun, Qiming, 2020. "A hybrid short-term load forecasting model and its application in ground source heat pump with cooling storage system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1244-1259.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:2:p:607-:d:1316585. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.