IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i15p6562-d1447167.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Price Cannibalization Effect on Long-Term Electricity Prices and Profitability of Renewables in the Baltic States

Author

Listed:
  • Paulius Kozlovas

    (Department of Electrical Power Systems, Kaunas University of Technology, K. Donelaičio g. 73, LT-44249 Kaunas, Lithuania)

  • Saulius Gudzius

    (Department of Electrical Power Systems, Kaunas University of Technology, K. Donelaičio g. 73, LT-44249 Kaunas, Lithuania)

  • Audrius Jonaitis

    (Department of Electrical Power Systems, Kaunas University of Technology, K. Donelaičio g. 73, LT-44249 Kaunas, Lithuania)

  • Inga Konstantinaviciute

    (Department of Electrical Power Systems, Kaunas University of Technology, K. Donelaičio g. 73, LT-44249 Kaunas, Lithuania
    Laboratory of Energy Systems Research, Lithuanian Energy Institute, Breslaujos str. 3, LT-44403 Kaunas, Lithuania)

  • Viktorija Bobinaite

    (Laboratory of Energy Systems Research, Lithuanian Energy Institute, Breslaujos str. 3, LT-44403 Kaunas, Lithuania)

  • Saule Gudziute

    (DTU Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark)

  • Gustas Giedraitis

    (Faculty of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester, Oxford Rd, Manchester M13 9PL, UK)

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate price cannibalization effects in forecasts of long-term electricity prices and substantiate their relevance on the profitability of renewables in the Baltic States from 2024 to 2033. Statistical data analysis, literature review, scenario method, and PLEXOS modeling were applied. Five scenarios were analyzed for developing renewable energy sources (RES) and load in Lithuania. In contrast, scenarios for Estonia and Latvia were based on assumptions derived from the countries’ national RES strategies. The results showed that the increase in RES capacities will halve electricity market prices from around 130 EUR/MWh in 2024 to 58 EUR/MWh in Latvia, 60 EUR/MWh in Estonia, and 60–77 EUR/MWh in Lithuania in 2033. In time-waving, the absolute and relative price cannibalization effects of renewables were found. In 2033, the loss of revenue from solar photovoltaic (PV) generators was estimated to be 5.5–17.0 EUR/MWh in Lithuania, 7.1 EUR/MWh in Latvia, and 5.6 EUR in Estonia. The case of onshore wind demonstrated revenue losses of 10.5–22.0 EUR/MWh in Lithuania, 12.0 EUR/MWh in Latvia, and 10.0 EUR/MWh in Estonia. After 2029, revenues received by RES electricity generators could not guarantee project profitability; therefore, market flexibility options will be required. The key innovative strategy to mitigate the price cannibalization effect is the demand-side response when leveraging demand flexibility. Typically, this is achieved by sending price signals to the consumers who, if they have any, shift their demand to lower price periods. This is easily applied within HVAC systems, smart electric vehicle charging, and smart home appliance usage. Such behavior would allow the price cannibalization effect to be decreased.

Suggested Citation

  • Paulius Kozlovas & Saulius Gudzius & Audrius Jonaitis & Inga Konstantinaviciute & Viktorija Bobinaite & Saule Gudziute & Gustas Giedraitis, 2024. "Price Cannibalization Effect on Long-Term Electricity Prices and Profitability of Renewables in the Baltic States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-23, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:15:p:6562-:d:1447167
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/15/6562/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/15/6562/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Florian Ziel & Rick Steinert, 2017. "Probabilistic Mid- and Long-Term Electricity Price Forecasting," Papers 1703.10806, arXiv.org, revised May 2018.
    2. Bobinaite, Viktorija, 2015. "Financial sustainability of wind electricity sectors in the Baltic States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 794-815.
    3. Ismail Shah & Hasnain Iftikhar & Sajid Ali & Wendong Yang, 2022. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand and Prices: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches," Journal of Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-14, July.
    4. Carolina Garcia-Martos & Eduardo Caro & Maria Jesus Sanchez, 2015. "Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 66(5), pages 871-884, May.
    5. Welsch, Manuel & Deane, Paul & Howells, Mark & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Rogan, Fionn & Bazilian, Morgan & Rogner, Hans-Holger, 2014. "Incorporating flexibility requirements into long-term energy system models – A case study on high levels of renewable electricity penetration in Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 600-615.
    6. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick, 2018. "Probabilistic mid- and long-term electricity price forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-266.
    7. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Solbrekke, Ida Marie, 2018. "A review of modelling tools for energy and electricity systems with large shares of variable renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 440-459.
    8. Fraunholz, Christoph & Kraft, Emil & Keles, Dogan & Fichtner, Wolf, 2021. "Advanced price forecasting in agent-based electricity market simulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mahler, Valentin & Girard, Robin & Kariniotakis, Georges, 2022. "Data-driven structural modeling of electricity price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    2. Shao, Zhen & Yang, Yudie & Zheng, Qingru & Zhou, Kaile & Liu, Chen & Yang, Shanlin, 2022. "A pattern classification methodology for interval forecasts of short-term electricity prices based on hybrid deep neural networks: A comparative analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    3. Philip Beran & Arne Vogler, 2021. "Multi-Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting: A Comparison of fundamental, econometric and hybrid Models," EWL Working Papers 2102, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Oct 2021.
    4. Valentin Mahler & Robin Girard & Georges Kariniotakis, 2021. "Data-driven Structural Modeling of Electricity Price Dynamics," Working Papers hal-03445396, HAL.
    5. Shao, Zhen & Zheng, Qingru & Yang, Shanlin & Gao, Fei & Cheng, Manli & Zhang, Qiang & Liu, Chen, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting the electricity clearing price: A novel BELM based pattern classification framework and a comparative analytic study on multi-layer BELM and LSTM," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    6. Tomasz Serafin & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2019. "Averaging Predictive Distributions Across Calibration Windows for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-12, July.
    7. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2021. "Optimal bidding in hourly and quarter-hourly electricity price auctions: trading large volumes of power with market impact and transaction costs," Papers 2104.14204, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    8. Ethem Çanakoğlu & Esra Adıyeke, 2020. "Comparison of Electricity Spot Price Modelling and Risk Management Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-22, September.
    9. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    10. Lu, Shixiang & Xu, Qifa & Jiang, Cuixia & Liu, Yezheng & Kusiak, Andrew, 2022. "Probabilistic load forecasting with a non-crossing sparse-group Lasso-quantile regression deep neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    11. Madadkhani, Shiva & Ikonnikova, Svetlana, 2024. "Toward high-resolution projection of electricity prices: A machine learning approach to quantifying the effects of high fuel and CO2 prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    12. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    13. Wheatcroft, Edward, 2019. "Interpreting the skill score form of forecast performance metrics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 573-579.
    14. Heggarty, Thomas & Bourmaud, Jean-Yves & Girard, Robin & Kariniotakis, Georges, 2024. "Assessing the relative impacts of maximum investment rate and temporal detail in capacity expansion models applied to power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    15. Yangrui Zhang & Peng Tao & Xiangming Wu & Chenguang Yang & Guang Han & Hui Zhou & Yinlong Hu, 2022. "Hourly Electricity Price Prediction for Electricity Market with High Proportion of Wind and Solar Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-13, February.
    16. Thomas Heggarty & Jean-Yves Bourmaud & Robin Girard & Georges Kariniotakis, 2024. "Assessing the relative impacts of maximum investment rate and temporal detail in capacity expansion models applied to power systems," Post-Print hal-04383397, HAL.
    17. Grothe, Oliver & Kächele, Fabian & Krüger, Fabian, 2023. "From point forecasts to multivariate probabilistic forecasts: The Schaake shuffle for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    18. Su, Jun & Lie, T.T. & Zamora, Ramon, 2020. "A rolling horizon scheduling of aggregated electric vehicles charging under the electricity exchange market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    19. Qiao, Weibiao & Yang, Zhe, 2020. "Forecast the electricity price of U.S. using a wavelet transform-based hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    20. Yoro, Kelvin O. & Daramola, Michael O. & Sekoai, Patrick T. & Wilson, Uwemedimo N. & Eterigho-Ikelegbe, Orevaoghene, 2021. "Update on current approaches, challenges, and prospects of modeling and simulation in renewable and sustainable energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:15:p:6562-:d:1447167. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.