IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i12p5039-d1414019.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of Land Use Change and Its Economic and Ecological Value under the Optimal Scenario and Green Development Advancement Policy: A Case Study of Hechi, China

Author

Listed:
  • Xingwang Hu

    (School of Public Policy and Management, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China)

  • Weihua Liao

    (School of Public Policy and Management, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China)

  • Yifang Wei

    (School of Public Policy and Management, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China)

  • Zhiyan Wei

    (School of Public Policy and Management, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China)

  • Shengxia Huang

    (School of Public Policy and Management, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China)

Abstract

Studying future land use change for sustainable regional development remains a challenging task. Although many previous studies have conducted multi-scenario simulations, research on optimal scenarios that consider the impact of regional policies is relatively limited. In this paper, based on exploring the drivers of land use change, a land value assessment framework that considers the impacts of future land use change is developed by combining multi-objective programming and patch-generating land use simulation models. The framework is useful for predicting land use changes and assessing the ecological and economic values of land in different development strategy contexts (natural development scenario, economic development scenario, ecological protection scenario and green economy scenario). The results show that during the period 1990–2020, the forest area fluctuated greatly. The area of forest initially increased from 249.21 × 10 4 hm 2 to 249.33 × 10 4 hm 2 , but then decreased to 248.53 × 10 4 hm 2 . Moreover, the model results show that altitude is the main driving force of land use change. By 2035, the economic value under the green economy scenario will be CNY 924.08 × 10 8 , slightly lower than the CNY 938.01 × 10 8 under the economic development scenario. However, the ecological value under the economic development scenario will drop from CNY 675.43 × 10 8 CNY in 2020 to CNY 633.56 × 10 8 in 2025. Therefore, the green economy scenario will be more in line with the development needs of local policies, and the future land use distribution of this scenario can provide reference for regional land planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Xingwang Hu & Weihua Liao & Yifang Wei & Zhiyan Wei & Shengxia Huang, 2024. "Analysis of Land Use Change and Its Economic and Ecological Value under the Optimal Scenario and Green Development Advancement Policy: A Case Study of Hechi, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-20, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:12:p:5039-:d:1414019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/12/5039/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/12/5039/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shuqing Wang & Xinqi Zheng, 2023. "Dominant transition probability: combining CA-Markov model to simulate land use change," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 6829-6847, July.
    2. Gardiner, Lorraine R. & Steuer, Ralph E., 1994. "Unified interactive multiple objective programming," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 391-406, May.
    3. Chaoxu Luan & Renzhi Liu, 2022. "A Comparative Study of Various Land Use and Land Cover Change Models to Predict Ecosystem Service Value," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Sai Hu & Longqian Chen & Long Li & Ting Zhang & Lina Yuan & Liang Cheng & Jia Wang & Mingxin Wen, 2020. "Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics under Ecological Constraints in Anhui Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-21, June.
    5. Huang, Daquan & Huang, Jing & Liu, Tao, 2019. "Delimiting urban growth boundaries using the CLUE-S model with village administrative boundaries," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 422-435.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kaliszewski, Ignacy & Michalowski, Wojtek, 1999. "Searching for psychologically stable solutions of multiple criteria decision problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 549-562, November.
    2. Minghe Sun, 2005. "Warm-Start Routines for Solving Augmented Weighted Tchebycheff Network Programs in Multiple-Objective Network Programming," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 422-437, November.
    3. Yue Wang & Dengjiao Liao & Bin Yan & Xinhai Lu, 2023. "Employment of Land-Expropriated Farmers: The Effects of Land Expropriation and Gender Difference," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-19, October.
    4. J. Granat & M. Makowski, 1998. "ISAAP - Interactive Specification and Analysis of Aspiration-Based Preferences," Working Papers ir98052, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    5. P Vasant & R Nagarajan & S Yaacob, 2005. "Fuzzy linear programming with vague objective coefficients in an uncertain environment," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(5), pages 597-603, May.
    6. Yang Yi & Chen Zhang & Jinqi Zhu & Yugang Zhang & Hao Sun & Hongzhang Kang, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution, Prediction and Optimization of LUCC Based on CA-Markov and InVEST Models: A Case Study of Mentougou District, Beijing," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-23, February.
    7. Changqing Sun & Yulong Bao & Battsengel Vandansambuu & Yuhai Bao, 2022. "Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on CLUE-S and CA-Markov Models: A Case Study of a Typical Pastoral Area in Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.
    8. Yusuyunjiang Mamitimin & Zibibula Simayi & Ayinuer Mamat & Bumairiyemu Maimaiti & Yunfei Ma, 2023. "FLUS Based Modeling of the Urban LULC in Arid and Semi-Arid Region of Northwest China: A Case Study of Urumqi City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-14, March.
    9. Chasia, Stanley & Olang, Luke O. & Sitoki, Lewis, 2023. "Modelling of land-use/cover change trajectories in a transboundary catchment of the Sio-Malaba-Malakisi Region in East Africa using the CLUE-s model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
    10. Xiaoyang Liu & Weihao Shi & Sen Zhang, 2022. "Progress of Research on Urban Growth Boundary and Its Implications in Chinese Studies Based on Bibliometric Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-18, December.
    11. Mariano Luque & Rafael Caballero & Julian Molina & Francisco Ruiz, 2007. "Equivalent Information for Multiobjective Interactive Procedures," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(1), pages 125-134, January.
    12. Somayeh Ahani & Hashem Dadashpoor, 2021. "Urban growth containment policies for the guidance and control of peri-urbanization: a review and proposed framework," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14215-14244, October.
    13. Steuer, Ralph E. & Utz, Sebastian, 2023. "Non-contour efficient fronts for identifying most preferred portfolios in sustainability investing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(2), pages 742-753.
    14. J. Granat & M. Makowski, 1995. "SAP- Modular Tool for Specification and Analysis of User Preferences in Multiple-Criteria Model Analysis," Working Papers wp95073, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    15. Tamiz, Mehrdad & Jones, Dylan & Romero, Carlos, 1998. "Goal programming for decision making: An overview of the current state-of-the-art," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 569-581, December.
    16. Kang Liu & Chaozheng Zhang & Han Zhang & Hao Xu & Wen Xia, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Variation and Dynamic Simulation of Ecosystem Carbon Storage in the Loess Plateau Based on PLUS and InVEST Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-18, May.
    17. Sun, Minghe, 2002. "A multiple objective programming approach for determining faculty salary equity adjustments," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 302-319, April.
    18. Xue Li & Wen Li & Yu Gao, 2023. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Green Space Landscape Pattern in Harbin City Based on FLUS Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-26, February.
    19. Yanan Li & Linghua Duo & Ming Zhang & Zhenhua Wu & Yanjun Guan, 2021. "Assessment and Estimation of the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Landscape Patterns and Their Impact on Habitat Quality in Nanchang, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-19, October.
    20. Soumendra Nath Sanyal & Izabela Nielsen & Subrata Saha, 2020. "Multi-Objective Human Resource Allocation Approach for Sustainable Traffic Management," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-16, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:12:p:5039-:d:1414019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.