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Assessing the Link between Wildfires, Vulnerability, and Climate Change: Insights from the Regions of Greece

Author

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  • Petros Xepapadeas

    (Research Laboratory on Socio-Economic and Environmental Sustainability, Athens University of Economics and Business, 10434 Athens, Greece)

  • Kostas Douvis

    (Research Center for Atmospheric Physics & Climatology, Academy of Athens, 11521 Athens, Greece)

  • Ioannis Kapsomenakis

    (Research Center for Atmospheric Physics & Climatology, Academy of Athens, 11521 Athens, Greece)

  • Anastasios Xepapadeas

    (Department of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business, 10434 Athens, Greece
    Department of Economics, University of Bologna, 40126 Bologna, Italy
    National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC 20001, USA)

  • Christos Zerefos

    (Research Center for Atmospheric Physics & Climatology, Academy of Athens, 11521 Athens, Greece
    Biomedical Research Foundation, Academy of Athens, 11527 Athens, Greece
    Navarino Environmental Observatory (N.E.O.), Costa Navarino, 24001 Messinia, Greece
    Mariolopoulos-Kanaginis Foundation for the Environmental Sciences, 10675 Athens, Greece)

Abstract

Forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services which are important for achieving sustainable development. Anthropogenic climate change has led to the increased frequency and severity of forest fires, which imply losses of valuable ecosystem services. This paper provides a methodological framework based on Multiple Criteria Decision Aid methods for determining relative regional vulnerabilities associated with forest fires. Different notions of ex-post vulnerability are defined based on the forest area burned and the frequency of forest fires, and their relation to the regions’ area and certain socioeconomic characteristics. The climatic drivers of forest fire occurrence are explored by linking forest fires with summer and spring temperatures and precipitation, using econometric count data analysis. The methodology is applied to Greece and its administrative regions for the period 2000–2022. Ex-post vulnerability of regions to forest fires based on physical and socioeconomic characteristics is calculated, and expected changes in the frequency of fires of specific size classes conditional on the evolution of mean seasonal regional temperature and precipitation according to IPCC scenarios are predicted. Relative vulnerability estimates and the impact of specific climatic drivers on forest fires will be useful in designing policies for preserving forests as natural capital and promoting sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Petros Xepapadeas & Kostas Douvis & Ioannis Kapsomenakis & Anastasios Xepapadeas & Christos Zerefos, 2024. "Assessing the Link between Wildfires, Vulnerability, and Climate Change: Insights from the Regions of Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-25, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:11:p:4822-:d:1409349
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Christopher W. Callahan & Justin S. Mankin, 2022. "National attribution of historical climate damages," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-19, June.
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    5. Yeonjoo Kim & Eun-Sung Chung, 2013. "Assessing climate change vulnerability with group multi-criteria decision making approaches," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 301-315, November.
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