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An Emissions Offset Strategy to Accomplish 2 °C Long-Term Mitigation Goals in the European Union

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  • Ilaria Perissi

    (Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge CB1 1PT, UK)

  • Aled Jones

    (Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge CB1 1PT, UK)

Abstract

Regional carbon budgeting in policymaking is underutilized despite its importance for achieving global climate goals, particularly the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 2 °C by 2050. In this work, we present the model PLEDGES, a novel system dynamic-based simulation tool that focuses on the European Union region to equitably distribute carbon budgets among the Member States and activate emissions offset strategies to manage unexpected deviations from the EU27 carbon budget. The emissions trading dynamic is based on the “Gains from Trade” approach. The tool also calculates the cost of the offset strategies based on the use of the abatement cost curves for the Member States. Using a case study of the recent increase in carbon emissions in Germany in response to reduced Russian gas supplies, different emissions scenarios for Germany’s quota redistribution among the Member States are explored. The study reveals varied cost implications of between 30–60 Eur/ton CO 2eq to offset the emissions increase across other Member States. Final recommendations include promoting cross-border collaboration at the EU27 level.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilaria Perissi & Aled Jones, 2024. "An Emissions Offset Strategy to Accomplish 2 °C Long-Term Mitigation Goals in the European Union," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-13, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:11:p:4783-:d:1408554
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vicki Duscha & Alexandra Denishchenkova & Jakob Wachsmuth, 2019. "Achievability of the Paris Agreement targets in the EU: demand-side reduction potentials in a carbon budget perspective," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 161-174, February.
    2. Joeri Rogelj & Piers M. Forster & Elmar Kriegler & Christopher J. Smith & Roland Séférian, 2019. "Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets," Nature, Nature, vol. 571(7765), pages 335-342, July.
    3. Fabian Kesicki & Paul Ekins, 2012. "Marginal abatement cost curves: a call for caution," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 219-236, March.
    4. Olga Alcaraz & Pablo Buenestado & Beatriz Escribano & Bàrbara Sureda & Albert Turon & Josep Xercavins, 2018. "Distributing the Global Carbon Budget with climate justice criteria," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(2), pages 131-145, July.
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