IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i10p3969-d1391245.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Study on the Impact of Delayed Retirement on the Sustainability of the Basic Pension Insurance Fund for Urban Employees in China

Author

Listed:
  • Guiling Zhao

    (School of Economics, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110036, China
    School of Finance and Investment, Hebei Finance University, Baoding 071051, China)

  • Deyu Zhou

    (School of Mechanical Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Yunpeng Fu

    (School of Economics, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110036, China)

Abstract

With the aging of China’s population, the problem of pension security has become more and more prominent, and whether delayed retirement can effectively alleviate the pension fund gap and ensure the sustainability of the pension fund has become the focus of social concern. This study predicts the income and expenditure of urban workers’ basic pension insurance fund from 2021 to 2050 by constructing an actuarial model of pension insurance fund income and expenditure, and simulates the effect of delayed retirement policy. The prediction results show that under the existing system, the basic pension insurance fund for urban workers will have a shortfall for the first time in 2027, and the shortfall will expand year by year. Compared with the non-implementation of delayed retirement policy, the simulation of the implementation of a delayed retirement program delayed the emergence of the fund gap until 2029, and the forecast period of the pension fund gap significantly narrowed, indicating that delayed retirement policy has a certain positive impact on alleviating the pressure of pension payments, but delayed retirement cannot completely eliminate the pension fund gap. In view of this, this paper suggests that a progressive and flexible delayed retirement policy should be introduced as soon as possible to better adapt to the needs of different groups. At the same time, differentiated policies should be formulated for different groups of people and a pension incentive mechanism for delayed retirement should be set up to improve public acceptance of delayed retirement policy. In addition, delayed retirement policy should be combined with other measures, such as lowering the corporate contribution rate and enhancing the value-added capacity of the pension fund, so as to ensure the sustainability of the pension fund.

Suggested Citation

  • Guiling Zhao & Deyu Zhou & Yunpeng Fu, 2024. "Study on the Impact of Delayed Retirement on the Sustainability of the Basic Pension Insurance Fund for Urban Employees in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-20, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:10:p:3969-:d:1391245
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/10/3969/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/10/3969/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barbara Berkel & Axel Börsch-Supan, 2004. "Pension Reform in Germany: The Impact on Retirement Decisions," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(3), pages 393-421, September.
    2. Cremer, Helmuth & Pestieau, Pierre, 2003. "The Double Dividend of Postponing Retirement," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 10(4), pages 419-434, August.
    3. Berkman, Lisa F. & Truesdale, Beth C., 2023. "Working longer and population aging in the U.S.: Why delayed retirement isn’t a practical solution for many," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    4. Pecchenino, Rowena A & Pollard, Patricia S, 1997. "The Effects of Annuities, Bequests, and Aging in an Overlapping Generations Model of Endogenous Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 26-46, January.
    5. Rafael Lalive & Arvind Magesan & Stefan Staubli, 2023. "How Social Security Reform Affects Retirement and Pension Claiming," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 115-150, August.
    6. Laun, Tobias & Wallenius, Johanna, 2015. "A life cycle model of health and retirement: The case of Swedish pension reform," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 127-136.
    7. Gary Burtless, 2013. "The Impact of Population Aging and Delayed Retirement on Workforce Productivity," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2013-11, Center for Retirement Research.
    8. Ronald Lee & Ryan Edwards, 2002. "The Fiscal Effects of Population Aging in the US: Assessing the Uncertainties," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 16, pages 141-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jin Hu & Peter-Josef Stauvermann & Surya Nepal & Yuanhua Zhou, 2023. "Can the Policy of Increasing Retirement Age Raise Pension Revenue in China—A Case Study of Anhui Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Huimin Li & Jianyuan Huang & Jiayun Liu, 2022. "External Support for Elderly Care Social Enterprises in China: A Government-Society-Family Framework of Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-22, July.
    11. repec:aei:rpaper:31143 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Yuantao Xie & Xinzhu Zhang & Huijuan Lv & Xiaojing Guo, 2020. "The New Fertility Policy and the Actuarial Balance of China Urban Employee Basic Endowment Insurance Fund Based on Stochastic Mortality Model," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-12, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zheng Shen & James Yang, 2021. "A Simulation Study of the Effect of Delayed Retirement on Welfare of the Elderly: Evidence from China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    2. Hans FEHR, 2010. "Pension Reform with Variable Retirment Age," EcoMod2010 259600055, EcoMod.
    3. Timm Bönke & Markus M. Grabka & Carsten Schröder & Edward N. Wolff & Lennard Zyska, 2019. "The Joint Distribution of Net Worth and Pension Wealth in Germany," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 65(4), pages 834-871, December.
    4. Antje Mertens & Laura Romeu-Gordo, 2023. "Retirement in Western Germany – How Workplace Tasks Influence Its Timing," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 37(2), pages 467-485, April.
    5. Wallenius, Johanna, 2022. "R(a)ising employment of older individuals," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    6. Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2017. "Health, Health Insurance, and Retirement: A Survey," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 383-409, September.
    7. Pfister, Mona & Lorenz, Svenja & Zwick, Thomas, 2018. "Calculation of pension entitlements in the sample of integrated labour market biographies (SIAB)," FDZ Methodenreport 201801_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    8. Scott, Andrew J., 2023. "The economics of longevity – An introduction," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    9. Malavasi, Chiara & Ye, Han, 2024. "Live Longer and Healthier: Impact of Pension Income for Low-Income Retirees," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302374, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. van Groezen, B.J.A.M. & Meijdam, A.C. & Verbon, H.A.A., 2002. "Social Security Reform and Population Ageing in a Two-Sector Growth Model," Discussion Paper 2002-25, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Boockmann, Bernhard & Fries, Jan & Göbel, Christian, 2018. "Specific measures for older employees and late career employment," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 159-174.
    12. Yvonne Adema & Jan Bonenkamp & Lex Meijdam, 2016. "Flexible pension take-up in social security," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(2), pages 316-342, April.
    13. Karsten Hank, 2004. "Effects of Early Life Family Events on Women’s Late Life Labour Market Behaviour: An Analysis of the Relationship between Childbearing and Retirement in Western Germany," MEA discussion paper series 04047, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    14. Mizushima, Atsue, 2009. "Intergenerational transfers of time and public long-term care with an aging population," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 572-581, December.
    15. Dominik Grafenhofer & Christian Jaag & Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg, 2005. "Probabilistic Aging," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-08, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    16. Håkan Selin, 2017. "What happens to the husband’s retirement decision when the wife’s retirement incentives change?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(3), pages 432-458, June.
    17. Sarah Cattan & Daniel A Kamhöfer & Martin Karlsson & Therese Nilsson, 2023. "The Long-Term Effects of Student Absence: Evidence from Sweden," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(650), pages 888-903.
    18. Essig, Lothar, 2005. "Household saving in Germany : results from SAVE 2001 - 2003," Papers 05-23, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    19. Kim, Hoolda & Song Lee, Bun, 2023. "Aging workforce, wages, and productivity: Do older workers drag productivity down in Korea?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    20. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Reil-Held, Anette & Wilke, Christina Benita, 2007. "How an Unfunded Pension System looks like Defined Benefits but works like Defined Contributions: The German Pension Reform," MEA discussion paper series 07126, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:10:p:3969-:d:1391245. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.