IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i8p6394-d1118753.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Third Time’s a Charm? Assessing the Impact of the Third Phase of the EU ETS on CO 2 Emissions and Performance

Author

Listed:
  • Massimo Bordignon

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Via Necchi 5, 20123 Milan, Italy)

  • Duccio Gamannossi degl’Innocenti

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Via Necchi 5, 20123 Milan, Italy)

Abstract

The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) is the largest cap-and-trade scheme for CO 2 emissions globally. This study evaluates the impact on CO 2 -equivalents emission of the increased stringency of Phase 3, which marked a significant shift from the previous phases of the EU ETS and significantly reduced the number of emissions permits (EU Allowances—EUA) freely allocated. Our analysis reveals that the increase of purchased EUA had a statistically significant, substantial impact on emissions reduction from Phase 2 to Phase 3, with a decrease in emissions of approximately half a ton for each additional allowance bought. Our (conservative) estimate of the total reduction in emission is 422 MtCO 2 -eq, 22.5% of the average yearly EU ETS emissions or 4.3–3.0% of emissions in Phases 2 and 3, respectively. Under Article 10c of the ETS directive, lower-income Member States have been allowed to continue the free allocation of EUA to electricity-generating installations during Phase 3 to provide more time and resources for modernization. We show that such derogation had a sizeable and significant detrimental impact on the achievement of emission reduction targets, leading to an increase in emissions of about half a ton for each additional allowance bought; a result that highlights the need for increased efforts on support measures (e.g., the Modernization Fund). We also investigate the impact of the EU ETS on output, capital productivity, and labour productivity. Our analysis indicates that the performances were not negatively impacted by the tightening in regulation that occurred between Phases 2 and 3. We also find no evidence that the derogation status impacted performances, which further ameliorates the concerns about the potential intra-EU competitive distortions induced by the regulation. Our results cast a favourable light on the reduction of the free allocation of EUA and the tightening of the regulation implemented in Phase 4 of the EU ETS.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Bordignon & Duccio Gamannossi degl’Innocenti, 2023. "Third Time’s a Charm? Assessing the Impact of the Third Phase of the EU ETS on CO 2 Emissions and Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:8:p:6394-:d:1118753
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/8/6394/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/8/6394/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carratù, Maria & Chiarini, Bruno & Piselli, Paolo, 2020. "Effects of European emission unit allowance auctions on corporate profitability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Ralf Martin & Mirabelle Muûls & Ulrich J. Wagner, 2016. "The Impact of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme on Regulated Firms: What Is the Evidence after Ten Years?," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(1), pages 129-148.
    3. Petrick, Sebastian & Wagner, Ulrich J., 2014. "The impact of carbon trading on industry: Evidence from German manufacturing firms," Kiel Working Papers 1912, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Stefan Ambec & Mark A. Cohen & Stewart Elgie & Paul Lanoie, 2013. "The Porter Hypothesis at 20: Can Environmental Regulation Enhance Innovation and Competitiveness?," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 7(1), pages 2-22, January.
    5. Jacobson, Louis S & LaLonde, Robert J & Sullivan, Daniel G, 1993. "Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 685-709, September.
    6. Marit Klemetsen & Knut Einar Rosendahl & Anja Lund Jakobsen, 2020. "The Impacts Of The Eu Ets On Norwegian Plants’ Environmental And Economic Performance," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-32, February.
    7. Wietze Lise & Jos Sijm & Benjamin Hobbs, 2010. "The Impact of the EU ETS on Prices, Profits and Emissions in the Power Sector: Simulation Results with the COMPETES EU20 Model," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 47(1), pages 23-44, September.
    8. Louis S. Jacobson & Robert J. LaLonde & Daniel G. Sullivan, 1993. "Long-term earnings losses of high-seniority displaced workers," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 17(Nov), pages 2-20.
    9. Lawrence H. Goulder & Ian W.H. Parry & Roberton C. Williams III & Dallas Burtraw, 2002. "The Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Instruments for Environmental Protection in a Second-Best Setting," Chapters, in: Lawrence H. Goulder (ed.), Environmental Policy Making in Economies with Prior Tax Distortions, chapter 27, pages 523-554, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Bel, Germà & Joseph, Stephan, 2015. "Emission abatement: Untangling the impacts of the EU ETS and the economic crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 531-539.
    11. Barry Anderson & Corrado Di Maria, 2011. "Abatement and Allocation in the Pilot Phase of the EU ETS," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(1), pages 83-103, January.
    12. Mariana Mazzucato, 2015. "The Green Entrepreneurial State," SPRU Working Paper Series 2015-28, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    13. Jaraitė, Jūratė & Di Maria, Corrado, 2012. "Efficiency, productivity and environmental policy: A case study of power generation in the EU," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1557-1568.
    14. Chan, Hei Sing (Ron) & Li, Shanjun & Zhang, Fan, 2013. "Firm competitiveness and the European Union emissions trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1056-1064.
    15. Jurate Jaraite-Ka~ukauske and Corrado Di Maria, 2016. "Did the EU ETS Make a Difference? An Empirical Assessment Using Lithuanian Firm-Level Data," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    16. Adam B. Jaffe et al., 1995. "Environmental Regulation and the Competitiveness of U.S. Manufacturing: What Does the Evidence Tell Us?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 132-163, March.
    17. Martin, Ralf & de Preux, Laure B. & Wagner, Ulrich J., 2014. "The impact of a carbon tax on manufacturing: Evidence from microdata," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-14.
    18. Eugénie Joltreau & Katrin Sommerfeld, 2019. "Why does emissions trading under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) not affect firms’ competitiveness? Empirical findings from the literature," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 453-471, April.
    19. R. H. Coase, 2013. "The Problem of Social Cost," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 837-877.
    20. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Bengochea-Morancho, Aurelia & Morales-Lage, Rafael, 2019. "Does environmental policy stringency foster innovation and productivity in OECD countries?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    21. Jan Abrell & Anta Ndoye Faye & Georg Zachmann, 2011. "Assessing the impact of the EU ETS using firm level data," Working Papers of BETA 2011-15, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    22. Giovanni Marin & Marianna Marino & Claudia Pellegrin, 2018. "The Impact of the European Emission Trading Scheme on Multiple Measures of Economic Performance," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(2), pages 551-582, October.
    23. Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Nachtigall, Daniel & Venmans, Frank, 2023. "The joint impact of the European Union emissions trading system on carbon emissions and economic performance," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    24. Giovanni Marin & Marianna Marino & Claudia Pellegrin, 2018. "The impact of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme on Multiple Measures of Economic Performance," Post-Print hal-01768870, HAL.
    25. Anger, Niels & Oberndorfer, Ulrich, 2008. "Firm performance and employment in the EU emissions trading scheme: An empirical assessment for Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 12-22, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marit Klemetsen & Knut Einar Rosendahl & Anja Lund Jakobsen, 2020. "The Impacts Of The Eu Ets On Norwegian Plants’ Environmental And Economic Performance," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-32, February.
    2. Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Nachtigall, Daniel & Venmans, Frank, 2023. "The joint impact of the European Union emissions trading system on carbon emissions and economic performance," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    3. Simone Lazzini & Zeila Occhipinti & Angela Parenti & Roberto Verona, 2021. "Disentangling economic crisis effects from environmental regulation effects: Implications for sustainable development," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 2332-2353, July.
    4. Böning, Justus & Di Nino, Virginia & Folger, Till, 2023. "Benefits and costs of the ETS in the EU, a lesson learned for the CBAM design," Working Paper Series 2764, European Central Bank.
    5. Flori, Andrea & Borghesi, Simone & Marin, Giovanni, 2024. "The environmental-financial performance nexus of EU ETS firms: A quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Carratù, Maria & Chiarini, Bruno & Piselli, Paolo, 2020. "Effects of European emission unit allowance auctions on corporate profitability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Jonathan Colmer & Ralf Martin & Mirabelle Muûls & Ulrich J. Wagner, 2020. "Does pricing carbon mitigate climate change? Firm-level evidence from the European Union emissions trading scheme," CEP Discussion Papers dp1728, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Marin, Giovanni & Vona, Francesco, 2021. "The impact of energy prices on socioeconomic and environmental performance: Evidence from French manufacturing establishments, 1997–2015," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    9. Makridou, Georgia & Doumpos, Michalis & Galariotis, Emilios, 2019. "The financial performance of firms participating in the EU emissions trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 250-259.
    10. Joltreau, Eugénie & Sommerfeld, Katrin, 2016. "Why does emissions trading under the EU ETS not affect firms' competitiveness? Empirical findings from the literature," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    11. Sung-Hyun Jun & Jee Young Kim & Hyungna Oh, 2021. "Evaluating the impact of the KETS on GHG reduction in the first phase," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 23(3), pages 613-638, July.
    12. aus dem Moore, Nils & Großkurth, Philipp & Themann, Michael, 2019. "Multinational corporations and the EU Emissions Trading System: The specter of asset erosion and creeping deindustrialization," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-26.
    13. Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Kozluk, Tomasz & Kruse, Tobias & Nachtigall, Daniel & de Serres, Alain, 2019. "Do Environmental and Economic Performance Go Together? A Review of Micro-level Empirical Evidence from the Past Decade or So," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 13(1-2), pages 1-118, April.
    14. Hafele, Jakob & Kuhls, Sonia, 2022. "Trade-off or tension: Can carbon be priced without risking economic competitiveness?," ZOE Discussion Papers 9, ZOE. institute for future-fit economies, Bonn.
    15. Themann, Michael & Koch, Nicolas, 2021. "Catching up and falling behind: Cross-country evidence on the impact of the EU ETS on firm productivity," Ruhr Economic Papers 904, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    16. aus dem Moore, Nils & Großkurth, Philipp & Themann, Michael, 2017. "Multinational corporations and the EU emissions trading system: Asset erosion and creeping deindustrialization?," Ruhr Economic Papers 719, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Nicola De Vivo & Giovanni Marin, 2018. "How neutral is the choice of the allocation mechanism in cap-and-trade schemes? Evidence from the EU-ETS," Argomenti, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics, vol. 9(9), pages 1-24, January-A.
    18. Svetlana V. Doroshenko & Anna D. Mingaleva, 2020. "Carbon Exchanges: European Experience in Developing the Mechanism of Emission Permit Trading," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 4, pages 52-68, August.
    19. Hagendorn, Jan Eric & Hattemer, Benjamin & Kalantzis, Fotios, 2024. "A positive trade-off: Emissions reduction and costs under Phase IV of the Emissions Trading System," EIB Working Papers 2024/05, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    20. Ferrara, Antonella Rita & Giua, Ludovica, 2022. "Indirect cost compensation under the EU ETS: A firm-level analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:8:p:6394-:d:1118753. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.