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Dynamic Control of Flood Limited Water Levels for Parallel Reservoirs by Considering Forecast Period Uncertainty

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  • Yanbin Li

    (College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China)

  • Yubo Li

    (College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China)

  • Kai Feng

    (College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China)

  • Kaiyuan Tian

    (College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China)

  • Tongxuan Huang

    (College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China)

Abstract

The objective of this study is to achieve the dynamic optimization of the flood limited water level (FLWL) in parallel reservoirs, using Luhun Reservoir and Guxian Reservoir as case studies. The innovation lies in establishing a dynamic control optimization model for the FLWL of parallel reservoirs, considering the uncertainty in the forecasting period of the flood forecast due to the varying locations of the rainstorm center from upstream to downstream. To commence, the Fisher optimal segmentation method is employed for flood season staging to determine the staged FLWL of each reservoir. Subsequently, considering the uncertainty in the foresight period, the upper range of the dynamic FLWL is determined through the improved pre-discharge capacity constraint method and Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, a multi-objective optimization model is established to determine the optimal dynamic FLWL control operation scheme for parallel reservoirs, utilizing the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II). This model takes into account both downstream flood control requirements and the water supply benefits of the parallel reservoirs. Through the optimization of the scheme, the water supply of the parallel reservoirs can be augmented by 15,347.6 m 3 during the flood season. This optimization effectively achieves a harmonious balance between flood control and water supply, holding significant implications for mitigating drought risks amid changing conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanbin Li & Yubo Li & Kai Feng & Kaiyuan Tian & Tongxuan Huang, 2023. "Dynamic Control of Flood Limited Water Levels for Parallel Reservoirs by Considering Forecast Period Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-22, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:24:p:16765-:d:1298809
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    References listed on IDEAS

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