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A New Socio-Hydrology System Based on System Dynamics and a SWAT-MODFLOW Coupling Model for Solving Water Resource Management in Nanchang City, China

Author

Listed:
  • Zhihui Deng

    (Center for Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology Survey, China Geological Survey, Tianjin 300309, China)

  • Qingshan Ma

    (Nanjing Center, China Geological Survey, Nanjing 210016, China)

  • Jia Zhang

    (School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China)

  • Qingda Feng

    (Center for Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology Survey, China Geological Survey, Tianjin 300309, China)

  • Zhaoxuan Niu

    (Center for Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology Survey, China Geological Survey, Tianjin 300309, China)

  • Guilin Zhu

    (Center for Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology Survey, China Geological Survey, Tianjin 300309, China)

  • Xianpeng Jin

    (Center for Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology Survey, China Geological Survey, Tianjin 300309, China)

  • Meijing Chen

    (Hebei Provincial Academy of Water Resources, Shijiazhuang 050011, China)

  • Honghan Chen

    (School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

To address the issue of seasonal water resource shortages in Nanchang City, a multi-system coupling socio-hydrology simulation method was proposed. This approach involves dynamically integrating a centralized socio-economic model with a distributed surface water groundwater numerical model to explore the intricate relationships between the socio-economic system, the surface water–groundwater integrated system, and the outcomes related to seasonal water resource shortages. Taking Nanchang City as an example, this study conducted research on the water resource supply and demand balance, as well as the groundwater emergency supply, using the multi-system coupling model. Three scenarios were established: status quo, developing, and water-saving. The results show that with the increasing total water demand of social and economic development, the severity of the water resource shortage will be most pronounced in 2030. The minimum water resources supply and demand ratios for the status quo, developing, and water-saving scenarios are projected to be 0.68, 0.52, and 0.77, respectively. To meet residents’ water needs during drought conditions, emergency groundwater supply efforts are investigated. According to the simulation results, groundwater emergency supply would increase the total population by 24.0 thousand, 49.4 thousand, and 11.2 thousand people, respectively, in the status quo, developing, and water-saving scenarios. In the water-saving scenario, the Youkou and Xiebu water sources can serve as suitable emergency water sources. In the status quo scenario, the Youkou water source is the most viable emergency water source. However, in the developing scenario, relying solely on any single water source for emergency supply could have an irreversible impact on the aquifer. Therefore, considering the simultaneous use of multiple water sources is recommended, as it can fulfill water demands while ensuring the sustainable utilization of groundwater resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhihui Deng & Qingshan Ma & Jia Zhang & Qingda Feng & Zhaoxuan Niu & Guilin Zhu & Xianpeng Jin & Meijing Chen & Honghan Chen, 2023. "A New Socio-Hydrology System Based on System Dynamics and a SWAT-MODFLOW Coupling Model for Solving Water Resource Management in Nanchang City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-22, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:22:p:16079-:d:1282824
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nasser Shahsavari-Pour & Sadegh Bahador & Azim Heydari & Afef Fekih, 2023. "Water Shortage Simulation Using a System Dynamics Approach: A Case Study of the Rafsanjan City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, April.
    2. Huanhuan Qin & Chunmiao Zheng & Xin He & Jens Christian Refsgaard, 2019. "Analysis of Water Management Scenarios Using Coupled Hydrological and System Dynamics Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(14), pages 4849-4863, November.
    3. Peiyue Li & Hui Qian, 2018. "Water resources research to support a sustainable China," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 327-336, May.
    4. Dongguo Shao & Xudong Li & Wenquan Gu, 2015. "A Method for Temporary Water Scarcity Analysis in Humid Region Under Droughts Condition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3823-3839, August.
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