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Probabilistic Prediction of Satellite-Derived Water Quality for a Drinking Water Reservoir

Author

Listed:
  • Edoardo Bertone

    (School of Engineering and Built Environment, Griffith University, Southport, QLD 4222, Australia
    Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, 170 Kessels Road, Nathan, QLD 4111, Australia
    Cities Research Institute, Griffith University, Edmund Rice Drive, Southport, QLD 4222, Australia)

  • Sara Peters Hughes

    (Seqwater, 117 Brisbane Street, Ipswich, QLD 4305, Australia)

Abstract

A Bayesian network-based modelling framework was proposed to predict the probability of exceeding critical thresholds for chlorophyll-a and turbidity in an Australian subtropical drinking water reservoir, based on Sentinel-2 data and prior knowledge. The model was trained with quasi-synchronous historical in situ and satellite data for 2018–2023 and achieved satisfactory accuracy (Brier score < 0.27 for all models) despite limited poor water quality events in the final dataset. The graphical output of the model (posterior probability maps of high turbidity or chlorophyll-a) provides an effective means for the user to evaluate both the prediction, and the uncertainty behind the predictions in a single map. This avoids loss of trust in the model and can trigger spatially targeted data collection in order to reduce uncertainty. Future work will focus on refining the modelling methodology and its automation, as well as including other data such as in situ high-frequency sensors.

Suggested Citation

  • Edoardo Bertone & Sara Peters Hughes, 2023. "Probabilistic Prediction of Satellite-Derived Water Quality for a Drinking Water Reservoir," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:14:p:11302-:d:1198404
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uusitalo, Laura, 2007. "Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 203(3), pages 312-318.
    2. Humberto Silva-Hidalgo & Ignacio Martín-Domínguez & María Alarcón-Herrera & Alfredo Granados-Olivas, 2009. "Mathematical Modelling for the Integrated Management of Water Resources in Hydrological Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(4), pages 721-730, March.
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