IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i13p10495-d1186177.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Renewable Electricity Transition: A Case for Evaluating Infrastructure Investments through Real Options Analysis in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Carolina Martins

    (Institute of Economics, University of Campinas, Campinas 13083-970, Brazil)

  • Marcelo de Carvalho Pereira

    (Institute of Economics, University of Campinas, Campinas 13083-970, Brazil)

  • Roberto Pasqualino

    (Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, 19 Silver Street, Cambridge CB3 9EL, UK)

Abstract

This paper explores the uncertainty of expected returns by adopting the real options analysis method for the financial evaluation of renewable energy projects in Brazil. Energy transition is key to meeting climate targets, and real options analysis can play a pivotal role in evaluating renewable energy projects to meet those targets. The impact of the volatility of the chosen variables on the viability of the project is studied using Monte Carlo simulation in the R software. The results indicate that the lower the option value the higher the volatility of the project, leading to lower likelihood of the project being financed. The resulting model represents a simple instrument that can be incorporated in larger modelling frameworks (e.g., agent-based simulation) to assess the impact of real option analysis on different markets and environmental and socio-political conditions. These findings represent a strong case for the adoption of systems modelling to inform policy to support global energy transition, as the application of this method can make a renewable energy project financially more attractive in comparison to those relying on carbon intensive energy sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Carolina Martins & Marcelo de Carvalho Pereira & Roberto Pasqualino, 2023. "Renewable Electricity Transition: A Case for Evaluating Infrastructure Investments through Real Options Analysis in Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-24, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:13:p:10495-:d:1186177
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/13/10495/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/13/10495/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zavodov, Kirill, 2012. "Renewable energy investment and the clean development mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 81-89.
    2. Kroniger, Daniel & Madlener, Reinhard, 2014. "Hydrogen storage for wind parks: A real options evaluation for an optimal investment in more flexibility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 931-946.
    3. Kumbaroglu, Gürkan & Madlener, Reinhard & Demirel, Mustafa, 2008. "A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1882-1908, July.
    4. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, P. & Zhou, D.Q., 2016. "A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 213-226.
    5. Luis M. Abadie & José M. Chamorro, 2014. "Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-38, May.
    6. Fadly, Dalia, 2019. "Low-carbon transition: Private sector investment in renewable energy projects in developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 552-569.
    7. Mercure, Jean-François & Salas, Pablo, 2012. "An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 322-336.
    8. Steinke, Florian & Wolfrum, Philipp & Hoffmann, Clemens, 2013. "Grid vs. storage in a 100% renewable Europe," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 826-832.
    9. Kjaerland, Frode, 2007. "A real option analysis of investments in hydropower--The case of Norway," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5901-5908, November.
    10. Yang, Ming & Nguyen, François & De T'Serclaes, Philippine & Buchner, Barbara, 2010. "Wind farm investment risks under uncertain CDM benefit in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1436-1447, March.
    11. Bangjun, Wang & Feng, Zhaolei & Feng, Ji & Yu, Pan & Cui, Linyu, 2022. "Decision making on investments in photovoltaic power generation projects based on renewable portfolio standard: Perspective of real option," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 1033-1045.
    12. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    13. Sondoss Elsawah & Serena Hamilton & Anthony J. Jakeman & Dale Rothman & Vanessa Schweizer & Evelina Trutnevyte & Henrik Carlsen & Crystal Drakes & Bob Frame & Baihua Fu & Céline Guivarch & Marjolijn H, 2020. "Scenario processes for socio-environmental systems analysis of futures: A review of recent efforts and a salient research agenda for supporting decision making," Post-Print halshs-02882176, HAL.
    14. Lee, Hyounkyu & Park, Taeil & Kim, Byungil & Kim, Kyeongseok & Kim, Hyoungkwan, 2013. "A real option-based model for promoting sustainable energy projects under the clean development mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 360-368.
    15. Yescombe, E. R. & Yescombe, E. R., 2002. "Principles of Project Finance," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780127708515.
    16. Jeon, Chanwoong & Lee, Jeongjin & Shin, Juneseuk, 2015. "Optimal subsidy estimation method using system dynamics and the real option model: Photovoltaic technology case," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 33-43.
    17. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Meade, Nigel & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2012. "Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 225-237.
    18. Weibel, Sebastian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2015. "Cost-Effective Design of Ringwall Storage Hybrid Power Plants: A Real Options Analysis," FCN Working Papers 17/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    19. Ioannis Dokas & Georgios Oikonomou & Minas Panagiotidis & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2023. "Macroeconomic and Uncertainty Shocks’ Effects on Energy Prices: A Comprehensive Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-35, February.
    20. Naielly Lopes Marques & Carlos de Lamare Bastian-Pinto & Luiz Eduardo Teixeira Brandão, 2021. "A Tutorial for Modeling Real Options Lattices from Project Cash Flows," RAC - Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Journal of Contemporary Administration), ANPAD - Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração, vol. 25(1), pages 200093-2000.
    21. Wüstenhagen, Rolf & Menichetti, Emanuela, 2012. "Strategic choices for renewable energy investment: Conceptual framework and opportunities for further research," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-10.
    22. Steffen, Bjarne, 2018. "The importance of project finance for renewable energy projects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 280-294.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Malek Al-Chalabi, 2023. "Targeted and Tangential Effects—A Novel Framework for Energy Research and Practitioners," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-12, August.
    2. Casper Boongaling Agaton & Patricia Marie Caparas Guila, 2024. "Success Factors and Challenges: Implications of Real Options Valuation of Constructed Wetlands as Nature-Based Solutions for Wastewater Treatment," Resources, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kim, Kyeongseok & Park, Hyoungbae & Kim, Hyoungkwan, 2017. "Real options analysis for renewable energy investment decisions in developing countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 918-926.
    2. Kozlova, Mariia, 2017. "Real option valuation in renewable energy literature: Research focus, trends and design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 180-196.
    3. Assereto, Martina & Byrne, Julie, 2021. "No real option for solar in Ireland: A real option valuation of utility scale solar investment in Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Vasileios PAPADIMITRIOU & Serafeim POLYZOS & Dimitrios TSIOTAS, 2023. "Renewable Energy Project Appraisal Using The Real Options Methodology," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 85-96, June.
    5. Penizzotto, F. & Pringles, R. & Olsina, F., 2019. "Real options valuation of photovoltaic power investments in existing buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Sim, Jaehun & Kim, Chae-Soo, 2019. "The value of renewable energy research and development investments with default consideration," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 530-539.
    7. Kitzing, Lena & Juul, Nina & Drud, Michael & Boomsma, Trine Krogh, 2017. "A real options approach to analyse wind energy investments under different support schemes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 83-96.
    8. Felipe Isaza Cuervo & Sergio Botero Boterob, 2014. "Aplicación de las opciones reales en la toma de decisiones en los mercados de electricidad," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    9. Nunes, Luis Eduardo & Lima, Marcus Vinicius Andrade de & Davison, Matthew & Leite, André Luis da Silva, 2021. "Switch and defer option in renewable energy projects: Evidences from Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    10. Zhang, M.M. & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn & Ding, H., 2019. "Evaluating uncertain investment decisions in low-carbon transition toward renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 1049-1060.
    11. Zhang, Mingming & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng, 2014. "A real option model for renewable energy policy evaluation with application to solar PV power generation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 944-955.
    12. Didier Nibbering & Coos van Buuren & Wei Wei, 2021. "Real Options Valuation of Wind Energy Based on the Empirical Production Uncertainty," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    13. Zhang, Mingming & Liu, Liyun & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Valuing investment decisions of renewable energy projects considering changing volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    14. Yao, Xing & Fan, Ying & Zhu, Lei & Zhang, Xian, 2020. "Optimization of dynamic incentive for the deployment of carbon dioxide removal technology: A nonlinear dynamic approach combined with real options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    15. Lin, Boqiang & Wesseh, Presley K., 2013. "Valuing Chinese feed-in tariffs program for solar power generation: A real options analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 474-482.
    16. Gazheli, Ardjan & van den Bergh, Jeroen, 2018. "Real options analysis of investment in solar vs. wind energy: Diversification strategies under uncertain prices and costs," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2693-2704.
    17. MacDougall, Shelley L., 2015. "The value of delay in tidal energy development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 438-446.
    18. Ming, Zeng & Ximei, Liu & Yulong, Li & Lilin, Peng, 2014. "Review of renewable energy investment and financing in China: Status, mode, issues and countermeasures," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 23-37.
    19. Liu, Haomin & Zhang, Zaixu & Zhang, Tao, 2022. "Shale gas investment decision-making: Green and efficient development under market, technology and environment uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    20. Martín-Barrera, Gonzalo & Zamora-Ramírez, Constancio & González-González, José M., 2016. "Application of real options valuation for analysing the impact of public R&D financing on renewable energy projects: A company′s perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 292-301.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:13:p:10495-:d:1186177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.