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The Forecast of Beijing Habitat Quality Dynamics Considering the Government Land Use Planning and the City’s Spatial Heterogeneity

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  • Wenyu Wang

    (School of Geomatics and Urban Spatial Informatics, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 102616, China)

  • Chenghui Liu

    (School of Geomatics and Urban Spatial Informatics, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 102616, China)

  • Hongbo Yang

    (Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China)

  • Guoyin Cai

    (School of Geomatics and Urban Spatial Informatics, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 102616, China)

Abstract

The evaluation of the habitat quality dynamics is important to conservation management and sustainable development. Forecasting future habitat quality changes depends on reliable projections of future land uses that align with government’s future land-use planning. Additionally, the spatial heterogeneity problem cannot be dismissed in spatial modelling and the uneven distribution of urban development should be considered in the land use simulation and prediction. To address these issues, we established a bidirectional framework: from the top-down side, we impose land use and land cover (LULC) quantity constraints considering the goals of government land use planning; from the bottom-up side, we adopt zoning methods to consider the spatial heterogeneity of land use transition rules for improving the accuracy of land use prediction. We applied this approach to project habitat quality of Beijing in 2035 under different development scenarios. Firstly, we constructed multiple future scenarios (natural development, ND; economic development, ED; ecological protection, EP; livable city, LC) and computed the quantities of various land uses under those scenarios. Secondly, we addressed the spatial heterogeneity issue by adopting the zoning methods to improve the land use simulation accuracy of the PLUS model. Finally, based on the predicted LULC data, we analyzed the future habitat quality patterns in Beijing under different scenarios using InVEST model. We found that the zoning method can improve the simulation accuracy of LULC. Furthermore, significant spatial differences can be found in the habitat quality under different land use scenarios, which represent various government land use strategies. Among the four scenarios, the LC scenario is the most conducive one due to its ability to achieve a good balance between economic and ecological benefits. This study provides evidence for justifying the feasibility of Beijing’s development plan to become a livable city.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenyu Wang & Chenghui Liu & Hongbo Yang & Guoyin Cai, 2023. "The Forecast of Beijing Habitat Quality Dynamics Considering the Government Land Use Planning and the City’s Spatial Heterogeneity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:11:p:9040-:d:1163084
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zheng, Liang & Wang, Ying & Li, Jiangfeng, 2023. "Quantifying the spatial impact of landscape fragmentation on habitat quality: A multi-temporal dimensional comparison between the Yangtze River Economic Belt and Yellow River Basin of China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    2. Huang, Daquan & Huang, Jing & Liu, Tao, 2019. "Delimiting urban growth boundaries using the CLUE-S model with village administrative boundaries," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 422-435.
    3. Yao, ZHOU & Jiang, CHANG & Shan-shan, FENG, 2022. "Effects of urban growth boundaries on urban spatial structural and ecological functional optimization in the Jining Metropolitan Area, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
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