IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i8p4427-d789392.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cloud Cover Forecast Based on Correlation Analysis on Satellite Images for Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Yongju Son

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Korea)

  • Yeunggurl Yoon

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Korea)

  • Jintae Cho

    (Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Daejeon 34056, Korea)

  • Sungyun Choi

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Korea)

Abstract

Photovoltaic power generation must be predicted to counter the system instability caused by an increasing number of photovoltaic power-plant connections. In this study, a method for predicting the cloud volume and power generation using satellite images is proposed. Generally, solar irradiance and cloud cover have a high correlation. However, because the predicted solar irradiance is not provided by the Meteorological Administration or a weather site, cloud cover can be used instead of the predicted solar radiation. A lot of information, such as the direction and speed of movement of the cloud is contained in the satellite image. Therefore, the spatio-temporal correlation of the cloud is obtained from satellite images, and this correlation is presented pictorially. When the learning is complete, the current satellite image can be entered at the current time and the cloud value for the desired time can be obtained. In the case of the predictive model, the artificial neural network (ANN) model with the identical hyperparameters or setting values is used for data performance evaluation. Four cases of forecasting models are tested: cloud cover, visible image, infrared image, and a combination of the three variables. According to the result, the multivariable case showed the best performance for all test periods. Among single variable models, cloud cover presented a fair performance for short-term forecasting, and visible image presented a good performance for ultra-short-term forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongju Son & Yeunggurl Yoon & Jintae Cho & Sungyun Choi, 2022. "Cloud Cover Forecast Based on Correlation Analysis on Satellite Images for Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-24, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:8:p:4427-:d:789392
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/8/4427/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/8/4427/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Yuanyuan & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Ge & Dong, Yao, 2012. "Application of residual modification approach in seasonal ARIMA for electricity demand forecasting: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 284-294.
    2. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Rial A. Rajagukguk & Raden A. A. Ramadhan & Hyun-Jin Lee, 2020. "A Review on Deep Learning Models for Forecasting Time Series Data of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    4. Escrig, H. & Batlles, F.J. & Alonso, J. & Baena, F.M. & Bosch, J.L. & Salbidegoitia, I.B. & Burgaleta, J.I., 2013. "Cloud detection, classification and motion estimation using geostationary satellite imagery for cloud cover forecast," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 853-859.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qingyuan Wang & Longnv Huang & Jiehui Huang & Qiaoan Liu & Limin Chen & Yin Liang & Peter X. Liu & Chunquan Li, 2022. "A Hybrid Generative Adversarial Network Model for Ultra Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Jinhyeok Park & Young Jae Lee & Yongwon Jo & Jaehoon Kim & Jin Hyun Han & Kuk Jin Kim & Young Taeg Kim & Seoung Bum Kim, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Network for Sea Fog Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-10, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nguyen, Thi Ngoc & Müsgens, Felix, 2022. "What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    2. Nunes Maciel, Joylan & Javier Gimenez Ledesma, Jorge & Hideo Ando Junior, Oswaldo, 2024. "Hybrid prediction method of solar irradiance applied to short-term photovoltaic energy generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    3. Fateh Mehazzem & Maina André & Rudy Calif, 2022. "Efficient Output Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on MPPT Fuzzy Logic Technique and Solar Spatio-Temporal Forecasting Approach in a Tropical Insular Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-21, November.
    4. Heo, SungKu & Byun, Jaewon & Ifaei, Pouya & Ko, Jaerak & Ha, Byeongmin & Hwangbo, Soonho & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2024. "Towards mega-scale decarbonized industrial park (Mega-DIP): Generative AI-driven techno-economic and environmental assessment of renewable and sustainable energy utilization in petrochemical industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    5. Lim, Juin Yau & Safder, Usman & How, Bing Shen & Ifaei, Pouya & Yoo, Chang Kyoo, 2021. "Nationwide sustainable renewable energy and Power-to-X deployment planning in South Korea assisted with forecasting model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    6. Liu, Che & Sun, Bo & Zhang, Chenghui & Li, Fan, 2020. "A hybrid prediction model for residential electricity consumption using holt-winters and extreme learning machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    7. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    8. Silva, Ana R. & Pousinho, H.M.I. & Estanqueiro, Ana, 2022. "A multistage stochastic approach for the optimal bidding of variable renewable energy in the day-ahead, intraday and balancing markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    9. Verdone, Alessio & Scardapane, Simone & Panella, Massimo, 2024. "Explainable Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks for multi-site photovoltaic energy production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    10. Gao, Datong & Zhao, Bin & Kwan, Trevor Hocksun & Hao, Yong & Pei, Gang, 2022. "The spatial and temporal mismatch phenomenon in solar space heating applications: status and solutions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    11. Daxini, Rajiv & Wu, Yupeng, 2024. "Review of methods to account for the solar spectral influence on photovoltaic device performance," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    12. Saima Akhtar & Sulman Shahzad & Asad Zaheer & Hafiz Sami Ullah & Heybet Kilic & Radomir Gono & Michał Jasiński & Zbigniew Leonowicz, 2023. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Models: A Review of Challenges, Progress, and the Road Ahead," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-29, May.
    13. Khan, Waqas & Walker, Shalika & Zeiler, Wim, 2022. "Improved solar photovoltaic energy generation forecast using deep learning-based ensemble stacking approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    14. Vasallo, Manuel Jesús & Cojocaru, Emilian Gelu & Gegúndez, Manuel Emilio & Marín, Diego, 2021. "Application of data-based solar field models to optimal generation scheduling in concentrating solar power plants," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1130-1149.
    15. Kenji Araki & Yasuyuki Ota & Akira Nagaoka & Kensuke Nishioka, 2023. "3D Solar Irradiance Model for Non-Uniform Shading Environments Using Shading (Aperture) Matrix Enhanced by Local Coordinate System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-20, May.
    16. Mohamed Massaoudi & Ines Chihi & Lilia Sidhom & Mohamed Trabelsi & Shady S. Refaat & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2021. "Enhanced Random Forest Model for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Weather Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.
    17. Zhao, He & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Xiao, Zenan & Shi, Haoyuan & Li, Chengli & Tai, Yonghang, 2024. "Week-ahead hourly solar irradiation forecasting method based on ICEEMDAN and TimesNet networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    18. Zheng, Lingwei & Su, Ran & Sun, Xinyu & Guo, Siqi, 2023. "Historical PV-output characteristic extraction based weather-type classification strategy and its forecasting method for the day-ahead prediction of PV output," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    19. Asaad Mohammad & Ramon Zamora & Tek Tjing Lie, 2020. "Integration of Electric Vehicles in the Distribution Network: A Review of PV Based Electric Vehicle Modelling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-20, September.
    20. Joe Yazbeck & John B. Rundle, 2023. "A Fusion of Geothermal and InSAR Data with Machine Learning for Enhanced Deformation Forecasting at the Geysers," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-22, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:8:p:4427-:d:789392. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.