IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i3p1660-d739507.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluation and Projection of Diurnal Temperature Range in Maize Cultivation Areas in China Based on CMIP6 Models

Author

Listed:
  • Wenqiang Xie

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Shuangshuang Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Xiaodong Yan

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

Abstract

The diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological component affecting maize yield. The accuracy of climate models simulating DTR directly affects the projection of maize production. We evaluate the ability of 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models to simulate DTR during 1961–2014 in maize cultivation areas with the observation (CN05.1), and project DTR under different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The root mean square error ( R M S E ), standard deviation ( S D ), Kling-Gupta efficiency ( K G E ) and comprehensive rating index ( C R I ) are used in the evaluation of the optimal model. The results show that CMIP6 models can generally reproduce the spatial distribution. The reproducibility of the annual average DTR in the maize cultivation areas is better than that in China but lower for the maize-growing season. The optimal model (EC-Earth3-Veg-LR) is used in the projection. Under the two SSPs, the DTR decreases compared with the historical period, especially in Northwest and North China. The DTR under SSP245 remains unchanged (annual) or increases slightly (growing season) during 2015–2050, while a significant decreasing trend is observed under SSP585. This highlights the importance of evaluating DTR in maize cultivation areas, which is helpful to further improve the accuracy of maize yield prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenqiang Xie & Shuangshuang Wang & Xiaodong Yan, 2022. "Evaluation and Projection of Diurnal Temperature Range in Maize Cultivation Areas in China Based on CMIP6 Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-17, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:1660-:d:739507
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/3/1660/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/3/1660/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Moriondo & C. Giannakopoulos & M. Bindi, 2011. "Climate change impact assessment: the role of climate extremes in crop yield simulation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 679-701, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wenqiang Xie & Xiaodong Yan, 2023. "Responses of Wheat Protein Content and Protein Yield to Future Climate Change in China during 2041–2060," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-22, September.
    2. Shuangshuang Wang & Wenqiang Xie & Xiaodong Yan, 2022. "Effects of Future Climate Change on Citrus Quality and Yield in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-18, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marmai, Nadin & Franco Villoria, Maria & Guerzoni, Marco, 2016. "How the Black Swan damages the harvest: statistical modelling of extreme events in weather and crop production in Africa, Asia, and Latin America," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis LEI & BRICK - Laboratory of Economics of Innovation "Franco Momigliano", Bureau of Research in Innovation, Complexity and Knowledge, Collegio 201605, University of Turin.
    2. Kerber, Samuel W. & Gilbert, Alexander Q. & Deinert, Mark R. & Bazilian, Morgan D., 2021. "Understanding the nexus of energy, environment and conflict: An overview," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Zagaria, Cecilia & Schulp, Catharina J.E. & Malek, Žiga & Verburg, Peter H., 2023. "Potential for land and water management adaptations in Mediterranean croplands under climate change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    4. Kizildeniz, T. & Irigoyen, J.J & Pascual, I. & Morales, F., 2018. "Simulating the impact of climate change (elevated CO2 and temperature, and water deficit) on the growth of red and white Tempranillo grapevine in three consecutive growing seasons (2013–2015)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 220-230.
    5. Ines Kapphan & Pierluigi Calanca & Annelie Holzkaemper, 2012. "Climate Change, Weather Insurance Design and Hedging Effectiveness," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 37(2), pages 286-317, April.
    6. Peihua Shi & Liang Tang & Lihuan Wang & Ting Sun & Leilei Liu & Weixing Cao & Yan Zhu, 2015. "Post-Heading Heat Stress in Rice of South China during 1981-2010," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-18, June.
    7. Khanal, Uttam & Wilson, Clevo & Rahman, Sanzidur & Lee, Boon & Hoang, Vincent, 2020. "Smallholder farmers’ adaptation to climate change and its potential contribution to UN’s sustainable development goals of zero hunger and no poverty," MPRA Paper 106917, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Sep 2020.
    8. Zhao Zhang & Yi Chen & Pin Wang & Shuai Zhang & Fulu Tao & Xiaofei Liu, 2014. "Spatial and temporal changes of agro-meteorological disasters affecting maize production in China since 1990," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 2087-2100, April.
    9. Puyu Feng & Bin Wang & De Li Liu & Hongtao Xing & Fei Ji & Ian Macadam & Hongyan Ruan & Qiang Yu, 2018. "Impacts of rainfall extremes on wheat yield in semi-arid cropping systems in eastern Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 555-569, April.
    10. Shirmohammadi, Bagher & Malekian, Arash & Salajegheh, Ali & Taheri, Bahram & Azarnivand, Hossein & Malek, Ziga & Verburg, Peter H., 2020. "Scenario analysis for integrated water resources management under future land use change in the Urmia Lake region, Iran," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    11. Yang, Chenyao & Fraga, Helder & van Ieperen, Wim & Santos, João A., 2020. "Assessing the impacts of recent-past climatic constraints on potential wheat yield and adaptation options under Mediterranean climate in southern Portugal," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    12. Marcel Adenäuer & Clara Frezal & Thomas Chatzopoulos, 2023. "Mitigating the impact of extreme weather events on agricultural markets through trade," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 198, OECD Publishing.
    13. Žiga Malek & Peter H. Verburg, 2018. "Adaptation of land management in the Mediterranean under scenarios of irrigation water use and availability," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 821-837, August.
    14. Ekaansh Khosla & Ramesh Dharavath & Rashmi Priya, 2020. "Crop yield prediction using aggregated rainfall-based modular artificial neural networks and support vector regression," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5687-5708, August.
    15. Amanda Tavares da Silva & Cleiton Gredson Sabin Benett & Marina Gabriela Marques & Anne Silva Martins & Willian Gonzaga da Silva & Natalia Arruda & Yago Cesar Rodrigues Morais & Katiane Santiago Silva, 2024. "Borate Application at Different Phenological Stages in Sunflower Cultivation," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 17(4), pages 1-50, July.
    16. Yuan-Chih Su & Bo-Jein Kuo, 2023. "Risk Assessment of Rice Damage Due to Heavy Rain in Taiwan," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, March.
    17. Gkiza, Ioanna & Nastis, Stefanos, 2018. "High Spatial Analysis on the Effects of Climate Change on Cereal Yield in Greece," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 0(Issue 1).
    18. Mandryk, Maryia & Reidsma, Pytrik & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2017. "Crop and farm level adaptation under future climate challenges: An exploratory study considering multiple objectives for Flevoland, the Netherlands," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 154-164.
    19. Pin Wang & Zhao Zhang & Xiao Song & Yi Chen & Xing Wei & Peijun Shi & Fulu Tao, 2014. "Temperature variations and rice yields in China: historical contributions and future trends," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(4), pages 777-789, June.
    20. Pin Wang & Zhao Zhang & Yi Chen & Xing Wei & Boyan Feng & Fulu Tao, 2016. "How much yield loss has been caused by extreme temperature stress to the irrigated rice production in China?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 635-650, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CMIP6; maize; diurnal temperature range; projection; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:1660-:d:739507. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.