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Land Use Carbon Emission Measurement and Risk Zoning under the Background of the Carbon Peak: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China

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  • Jia-Li Zhong

    (College of Resource and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China)

  • Wei Qi

    (College of Resource and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China)

  • Min Dong

    (Xintai Modern Agriculture Development Service Center, Tai’an 271120, China)

  • Meng-Han Xu

    (College of Resource and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China)

  • Jia-Yu Zhang

    (College of Resource and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China)

  • Yi-Xiao Xu

    (College of Resource and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China)

  • Zi-Jie Zhou

    (Urban Planning&Design Institute of Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518049, China)

Abstract

Land use and cover change (LUCC) has a non-negligible impact on both carbon emissions and carbon sinks. Based on the analysis of land use dynamics in Shandong Province, this study simulates land use changes in Shandong Province in 2030 under the Natural Development Scenario (NDS) and Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), classifies the risk level of carbon emissions in Shandong Province using the Land Use Carbon Emission (LUCE) risk indexes, and compares the differences between the risk level regions under NDS and SDS. This study shows that under the influence of LUCC, the carbon emissions in Shandong province increased significantly, from 90.5591 million tons in 2000 to 493.538 million tons in 2020, with urban land being the main source of carbon emissions, which increased from 90.0757 million tons in 2000 to 490.139 million tons in 2020. The main source of the increase in urban land was cropland. The LUCE was positively correlated with urban land area. The LUCE of SDS was 7.2423 million tons less than that of NDS. From 2000 to 2020, the risk areas of LUCE in Shandong province were mainly no-risk and mild-risk areas. The number of moderate-risk areas and high-risk areas of SDS was less than that of NDS. The rational organization of land use is important for Shandong Province to achieve low-carbon development.

Suggested Citation

  • Jia-Li Zhong & Wei Qi & Min Dong & Meng-Han Xu & Jia-Yu Zhang & Yi-Xiao Xu & Zi-Jie Zhou, 2022. "Land Use Carbon Emission Measurement and Risk Zoning under the Background of the Carbon Peak: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:22:p:15130-:d:973438
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yuanyuan Lou & Dan Yang & Pengyan Zhang & Ying Zhang & Meiling Song & Yicheng Huang & Wenlong Jing, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Changes with Ecosystem Service Value in the Yellow River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Smriti Mallapaty, 2020. "How China could be carbon neutral by mid-century," Nature, Nature, vol. 586(7830), pages 482-483, October.
    3. Chaopeng Hong & Jennifer A. Burney & Julia Pongratz & Julia E. M. S. Nabel & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Robert B. Jackson & Steven J. Davis, 2021. "Global and regional drivers of land-use emissions in 1961–2017," Nature, Nature, vol. 589(7843), pages 554-561, January.
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    2. Mingyan Ni & Yindi Zhao & Caihong Ma & Wenzhi Jiang & Yanmei Xie & Xiaolin Hou, 2023. "Spatial Identification and Change Analysis of Production-Living-Ecological Space Using Multi-Source Geospatial Data: A Case Study in Jiaodong Peninsula, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-27, September.
    3. Mingyan Ni & Yindi Zhao & Caihong Ma & Xiaolin Hou & Yanmei Xie, 2023. "Exploring Relationships between Spatial Pattern Change in Steel Plants and Land Cover Change in Tangshan City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-24, June.

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