IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i20p13666-d949725.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Response of Winter Wheat Production to Climate Change in Ziway Lake Basin

Author

Listed:
  • Aster Tesfaye Hordofa

    (Africa Centre of Excellence for Water Management, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa 1176, Ethiopia)

  • Olkeba Tolessa Leta

    (Bureau of Watershed Management and Modeling, St. Johns River Water Management District, 4049 Reid Street, Palatka, FL 32177, USA)

  • Tena Alamirew

    (Ethiopian Institute of Water Resources, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa 1176, Ethiopia)

  • Abebe Demissie Chukalla

    (The Department of Land & Water Management, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, 2611 Delft, The Netherlands)

Abstract

The crop production and limited freshwater resources in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) Lake Basin of Ethiopia have been facing pressure from warmer and drier climates. Thus, irrigation with the goal of increasing water use efficiency and the productivity of rainfed agriculture is vital to address climate effects, water scarcity, and food security. This study is aimed at assessing the sustainability of winter wheat production under climate change, and irrigation as an adaptation measure to improve yield, crop water productivity (CWP), and irrigation water productivity (IWP) in the CRV of Ethiopia. AquaCrop is applied to evaluate the effects of climate change and simulate irrigation as an adaptation measure. The analysis covers the baseline (1981–2020) and future (2026–2095) periods with each period categorized into three rainfall years (wet, normal, and dry). The future period is described using two representatives’ concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and PCP8.5) scenarios. The results under rainfed and future climate conditions show that the winter wheat yield and CWP are projected to be lowered as compared to the baseline period. Most importantly, a significant reduction in wheat yield and CWP is noticed during the dry years (−60% and −80%) compared to the wet years (−30% and −51%) and normal years (−18% and −30%), respectively. As compared to rainfed agriculture, irrigation significantly reduces the risk of wheat yield decline and improves the CWP. Irrigation is also able to improve the CWP of rainfed wheat production ranging from 0.98–1.4 kg/m 3 to 1.48–1.56 kg/m 3 . A projected CWP improvement of 1.1–1.32 kg/m 3 under irrigation is possible from 0.87–1.1 kg/m 3 under rainfed conditions. The study concludes that optimizing irrigation as a climate-change-adapting strategy in the CRV has a more pronounced positive impact to the rainfed production system, especially for the dry and normal years.

Suggested Citation

  • Aster Tesfaye Hordofa & Olkeba Tolessa Leta & Tena Alamirew & Abebe Demissie Chukalla, 2022. "Response of Winter Wheat Production to Climate Change in Ziway Lake Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-17, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:20:p:13666-:d:949725
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/20/13666/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/20/13666/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Faramarzi, Monireh & Yang, Hong & Schulin, Rainer & Abbaspour, Karim C., 2010. "Modeling wheat yield and crop water productivity in Iran: Implications of agricultural water management for wheat production," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(11), pages 1861-1875, November.
    2. Dengpan Xiao & Huizi Bai & De Li Liu, 2018. "Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Simulated Case for China’s Wheat System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, April.
    3. Iqbal, M. Anjum & Shen, Yanjun & Stricevic, Ruzica & Pei, Hongwei & Sun, Hongyoung & Amiri, Ebrahim & Penas, Angel & del Rio, Sara, 2014. "Evaluation of the FAO AquaCrop model for winter wheat on the North China Plain under deficit irrigation from field experiment to regional yield simulation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 61-72.
    4. Kelly, T.D. & Foster, T., 2021. "AquaCrop-OSPy: Bridging the gap between research and practice in crop-water modeling," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    5. Li, Jiamin & Inanaga, Shinobu & Li, Zhaohu & Eneji, A. Egrinya, 2005. "Optimizing irrigation scheduling for winter wheat in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 8-23, July.
    6. Jiang, Yiwen & Zhang, Lanhui & Zhang, Baoqing & He, Chansheng & Jin, Xin & Bai, Xiao, 2016. "Modeling irrigation management for water conservation by DSSAT-maize model in arid northwestern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 37-45.
    7. Ezenne, G.I. & Jupp, Louise & Mantel, S.K. & Tanner, J.L., 2019. "Current and potential capabilities of UAS for crop water productivity in precision agriculture," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 158-164.
    8. Zhao, Jie & Han, Tong & Wang, Chong & Jia, Hao & Worqlul, Abeyou W. & Norelli, Nicole & Zeng, Zhaohai & Chu, Qingquan, 2020. "Optimizing irrigation strategies to synchronously improve the yield and water productivity of winter wheat under interannual precipitation variability in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    9. Kheir, Ahmed M.S. & Alrajhi, Abdullah A. & Ghoneim, Adel M. & Ali, Esmat F. & Magrashi, Ali & Zoghdan, Medhat G. & Abdelkhalik, Sedhom A.M. & Fahmy, Ahmed E. & Elnashar, Abdelrazek, 2021. "Modeling deficit irrigation-based evapotranspiration optimizes wheat yield and water productivity in arid regions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    10. Sebastian Kloss & Raji Pushpalatha & Kefasi Kamoyo & Niels Schütze, 2012. "Evaluation of Crop Models for Simulating and Optimizing Deficit Irrigation Systems in Arid and Semi-arid Countries Under Climate Variability," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(4), pages 997-1014, March.
    11. Niu, G. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Liu, J. & Fan, Y.R., 2016. "Crop planning and water resource allocation for sustainable development of an irrigation region in China under multiple uncertainties," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 53-69.
    12. Ding, Zheli & Ali, Esmat F. & Elmahdy, Ahmed M. & Ragab, Khaled E. & Seleiman, Mahmoud F. & Kheir, Ahmed M.S., 2021. "Modeling the combined impacts of deficit irrigation, rising temperature and compost application on wheat yield and water productivity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dario Aversa & Nino Adamashvili & Mariantonietta Fiore & Alessia Spada, 2022. "Scoping Review (SR) via Text Data Mining on Water Scarcity and Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Asmamaw, Desale Kidane & Janssens, Pieter & Dessie, Mekete & Tilahun, Seifu A. & Adgo, Enyew & Nyssen, Jan & Walraevens, Kristine & Assaye, Habtamu & Yenehun, Alemu & Nigate, Fenta & Cornelis, Wim M., 2023. "Effect of deficit irrigation and soil fertility management on wheat production and water productivity in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    3. Mustafa El-Rawy & Heba Fathi & Wouter Zijl & Fahad Alshehri & Sattam Almadani & Faisal K. Zaidi & Mofleh Aldawsri & Mohamed Elsayed Gabr, 2023. "Potential Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Water Resources in Riyadh Region, Saudi Arabia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-17, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmed M. S. Kheir & Hiba M. Alkharabsheh & Mahmoud F. Seleiman & Adel M. Al-Saif & Khalil A. Ammar & Ahmed Attia & Medhat G. Zoghdan & Mahmoud M. A. Shabana & Hesham Aboelsoud & Calogero Schillaci, 2021. "Calibration and Validation of AQUACROP and APSIM Models to Optimize Wheat Yield and Water Saving in Arid Regions," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Kelly, T.D. & Foster, T. & Schultz, David M., 2023. "Assessing the value of adapting irrigation strategies within the season," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    3. Rashid, Muhammad Adil & Jabloun, Mohamed & Andersen, Mathias Neumann & Zhang, Xiying & Olesen, Jørgen Eivind, 2019. "Climate change is expected to increase yield and water use efficiency of wheat in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 193-203.
    4. Zhang, Chao & Xie, Ziang & Wang, Qiaojuan & Tang, Min & Feng, Shaoyuan & Cai, Huanjie, 2022. "AquaCrop modeling to explore optimal irrigation of winter wheat for improving grain yield and water productivity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    5. You, Yongliang & Song, Ping & Yang, Xianlong & Zheng, Yapeng & Dong, Li & Chen, Jing, 2022. "Optimizing irrigation for winter wheat to maximize yield and maintain high-efficient water use in a semi-arid environment," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    6. Serra, J. & Paredes, P. & Cordovil, CMdS & Cruz, S. & Hutchings, NJ & Cameira, MR, 2023. "Is irrigation water an overlooked source of nitrogen in agriculture?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    7. Kamran, Muhammad & Yan, Zhengang & Chang, Shenghua & Ning, Jiao & Lou, Shanning & Ahmad, Irshad & Ghani, Muhammad Usman & Arif, Muhammad & El Sabagh, Ayman & Hou, Fujiang, 2023. "Interactive effects of reduced irrigation and nitrogen fertilization on resource use efficiency, forage nutritive quality, yield, and economic benefits of spring wheat in the arid region of Northwest ," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    8. Agossou Gadedjisso-Tossou & Tamara Avellán & Niels Schütze, 2019. "An Economic-Based Evaluation of Maize Production under Deficit and Supplemental Irrigation for Smallholder Farmers in Northern Togo, West Africa," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-11, November.
    9. Zhong, Honglin & Sun, Laixiang & Fischer, Günther & Tian, Zhan & Liang, Zhuoran, 2019. "Optimizing regional cropping systems with a dynamic adaptation strategy for water sustainable agriculture in the Hebei Plain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 94-106.
    10. Alina Petronela Alexoaei & Valentin Cojanu & Cristiana-Ioana Coman, 2021. "On Sustainable Consumption: The Implications of Trade in Virtual Water for the EU’s Food Security," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, October.
    11. Yingnan Wei & Han Ru & Xiaolan Leng & Zhijian He & Olusola O. Ayantobo & Tehseen Javed & Ning Yao, 2022. "Better Performance of the Modified CERES-Wheat Model in Simulating Evapotranspiration and Wheat Growth under Water Stress Conditions," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-15, November.
    12. Shirazi, Sana Zeeshan & Mei, Xurong & Liu, Buchun & Liu, Yuan, 2021. "Assessment of the AquaCrop Model under different irrigation scenarios in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    13. Ishaque, Wajid & Osman, Raheel & Hafiza, Barira Shoukat & Malghani, Saadatullah & Zhao, Ben & Xu, Ming & Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir, 2023. "Quantifying the impacts of climate change on wheat phenology, yield, and evapotranspiration under irrigated and rainfed conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    14. Zhong, Honglin & Sun, Laixiang & Fischer, Günther & Tian, Zhan & van Velthuizen, Harrij & Liang, Zhuoran, 2017. "Mission Impossible? Maintaining regional grain production level and recovering local groundwater table by cropping system adaptation across the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 1-12.
    15. Wang, Bo & van Dam, Jos & Yang, Xiaolin & Ritsema, Coen & Du, Taisheng & Kang, Shaozhong, 2023. "Reducing water productivity gap by optimizing irrigation regime for winter wheat-summer maize system in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    16. Seyed Ahmadi & Elnaz Mosallaeepour & Ali Kamgar-Haghighi & Ali Sepaskhah, 2015. "Modeling Maize Yield and Soil Water Content with AquaCrop Under Full and Deficit Irrigation Managements," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2837-2853, June.
    17. Liu, Xiao & Yang, Dawen, 2021. "Irrigation schedule analysis and optimization under the different combination of P and ET0 using a spatially distributed crop model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    18. Cao, Xinchun & Li, Yueyao & Wu, Mengyang, 2022. "Irrigation water use and efficiency assessment coupling crop cultivation, commutation and consumption processes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    19. Qian Li & Yan Chen & Shikun Sun & Muyuan Zhu & Jing Xue & Zihan Gao & Jinfeng Zhao & Yihe Tang, 2022. "Research on Crop Irrigation Schedules Under Deficit Irrigation—A Meta-analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(12), pages 4799-4817, September.
    20. Keikha, Mahdi & Darzi- Naftchali, Abdullah & Motevali, Ali & Valipour, Mohammad, 2023. "Effect of nitrogen management on the environmental and economic sustainability of wheat production in different climates," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:20:p:13666-:d:949725. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.