IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i19p12422-d929345.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction of Potential Habitats of Zanthoxylum armatum DC. and Their Changes under Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Pingping Tian

    (College of Forestry, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China)

  • Yifu Liu

    (Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China)

  • Mingzhen Sui

    (College of Forestry, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China)

  • Jing Ou

    (College of Forestry, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China)

Abstract

Climate change poses a severe threat to biodiversity. Greenhouse gas emissions have accelerated climate warming and significantly impacted species distribution and population dynamics. Zanthoxylum armatum DC. is an ecologically, medicinally, and economically important plant; it is cultivated as an economic crop at large scales in China, and is a valuable medicinal plant in India, Nepal, etc. A precise prediction of the potential distribution areas of Z. armatum will contribute to its protection and determination of its planting areas. In this paper, based on 433 distribution points and 19 climate factors, the MaxEnt model was used to analyze the spatial distribution pattern of Z. armatum between 1970 and 2000, predict its spatial distribution pattern in 2040–2060 (the 2050s) and 2081–2100 (the 2090s), and comprehensively assess the critical climate factors limiting its geographical distribution. The findings are as follows: (1) in the 1970–2000 scenario, the potential suitable distribution areas of Z. armatum include the subtropical monsoon climate regions of Japan, the Korean Peninsula, the south of the Qinling–Huaihe Line of China, and the regions along the southern foot of the Himalayas (India, Bhutan, Nepal, etc.), with an area of 330.54 × 10 4 km 2 ; (2) the critical climate factors affecting the potential distribution of Z. armatum include temperature (mean diurnal temperature range, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, and temperature seasonality) and annual precipitation; (3) the distribution areas of Z. armatum will shift to higher latitudes and shrink under the three climate change scenarios in the 2050s and 2090s. In the 2090s–SSP585 scenario, the total area of suitable habitat will decrease most markedly, and the decrease rate of the highly suitable areas will reach up to 97.61%; only the region near Delong Town, Nanshan District, Chongqing City, will remain a highly suitable habitat, covering an area of merely 0.08 × 10 4 km 2 . These findings suggest that Z. armatum is susceptible to climate change. The border area between Guizhou Province and Chongqing City and the southwest district of Leshan City, Sichuan Province, will be a stable and moderately high potential suitable habitat for Z. armatum in the future. The above regions are recommended to be managed as key protected areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Pingping Tian & Yifu Liu & Mingzhen Sui & Jing Ou, 2022. "Prediction of Potential Habitats of Zanthoxylum armatum DC. and Their Changes under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:19:p:12422-:d:929345
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/19/12422/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/19/12422/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chris D. Thomas & Alison Cameron & Rhys E. Green & Michel Bakkenes & Linda J. Beaumont & Yvonne C. Collingham & Barend F. N. Erasmus & Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira & Alan Grainger & Lee Hannah & Lesle, 2004. "Extinction risk from climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 427(6970), pages 145-148, January.
    2. Huijie Qiao & Congtian Lin & Liqiang Ji & Zhigang Jiang, 2012. "mMWeb - An Online Platform for Employing Multiple Ecological Niche Modeling Algorithms," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(8), pages 1-7, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. & Botzen, W.J.W., 2015. "Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO2 emissions: A critical survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 33-46.
    2. Chunrong Mi & Liang Ma & Mengyuan Yang & Xinhai Li & Shai Meiri & Uri Roll & Oleksandra Oskyrko & Daniel Pincheira-Donoso & Lilly P. Harvey & Daniel Jablonski & Barbod Safaei-Mahroo & Hanyeh Ghaffari , 2023. "Global Protected Areas as refuges for amphibians and reptiles under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Václavík, Tomáš & Meentemeyer, Ross K., 2009. "Invasive species distribution modeling (iSDM): Are absence data and dispersal constraints needed to predict actual distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(23), pages 3248-3258.
    4. Pearce, Joshua M. & Johnson, Sara J. & Grant, Gabriel B., 2007. "3D-mapping optimization of embodied energy of transportation," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 435-453.
    5. Henzler, Julia & Weise, Hanna & Enright, Neal J. & Zander, Susanne & Tietjen, Britta, 2018. "A squeeze in the suitable fire interval: Simulating the persistence of fire-killed plants in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem under drier conditions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 389(C), pages 41-49.
    6. Andrew John & Avril Horne & Rory Nathan & Michael Stewardson & J. Angus Webb & Jun Wang & N. LeRoy Poff, 2021. "Climate change and freshwater ecology: Hydrological and ecological methods of comparable complexity are needed to predict risk," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), March.
    7. John H Matthews & Bart AJ Wickel & Sarah Freeman, 2011. "Converging Currents in Climate-Relevant Conservation: Water, Infrastructure, and Institutions," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(9), pages 1-4, September.
    8. Brandt, Laura A. & Benscoter, Allison M. & Harvey, Rebecca & Speroterra, Carolina & Bucklin, David & Romañach, Stephanie S. & Watling, James I. & Mazzotti, Frank J., 2017. "Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 10-20.
    9. Ethan Gordon & Federico Davila & Chris Riedy, 2022. "Transforming landscapes and mindscapes through regenerative agriculture," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 39(2), pages 809-826, June.
    10. Jorge Velásquez-Tibatá & María H Olaya-Rodríguez & Daniel López-Lozano & César Gutiérrez & Iván González & María C Londoño-Murcia, 2019. "BioModelos: A collaborative online system to map species distributions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-13, March.
    11. Tasmin L. Rymer & Neville Pillay & Carsten Schradin, 2013. "Extinction or Survival? Behavioral Flexibility in Response to Environmental Change in the African Striped Mouse Rhabdomys," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, January.
    12. Feng, Zhiying & Tang, Wenhu & Niu, Zhewen & Wu, Qinghua, 2018. "Bi-level allocation of carbon emission permits based on clustering analysis and weighted voting: A case study in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1122-1135.
    13. Alexander S Anderson & Collin J Storlie & Luke P Shoo & Richard G Pearson & Stephen E Williams, 2013. "Current Analogues of Future Climate Indicate the Likely Response of a Sensitive Montane Tropical Avifauna to a Warming World," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-12, July.
    14. Di Traglia, Mario & Attorre, Fabio & Francesconi, Fabio & Valenti, Roberto & Vitale, Marcello, 2011. "Is cellular automata algorithm able to predict the future dynamical shifts of tree species in Italy under climate change scenarios? A methodological approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(4), pages 925-934.
    15. Liu, Zhu & Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus & Liang, Sai & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Zhang, Chao & Guan, Dabo, 2015. "Four system boundaries for carbon accounts," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 318(C), pages 118-125.
    16. Rougier, Thibaud & Drouineau, Hilaire & Dumoulin, Nicolas & Faure, Thierry & Deffuant, Guillaume & Rochard, Eric & Lambert, Patrick, 2014. "The GR3D model, a tool to explore the Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 283(C), pages 31-44.
    17. Verboom, Jana & Alkemade, Rob & Klijn, Jan & Metzger, Marc J. & Reijnen, Rien, 2007. "Combining biodiversity modeling with political and economic development scenarios for 25 EU countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 267-276, April.
    18. Perez, Carlos & Roncoli, Carla & Neely, Constance & Steiner, Jean L., 2007. "Can carbon sequestration markets benefit low-income producers in semi-arid Africa? Potentials and challenges," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 2-12, April.
    19. Carlos Cerrejón & Osvaldo Valeria & Jesús Muñoz & Nicole J Fenton, 2022. "Small but visible: Predicting rare bryophyte distribution and richness patterns using remote sensing-based ensembles of small models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, January.
    20. Koo, Kyung Ah & Patten, Bernard C. & Teskey, Robert O. & Creed, Irena F., 2014. "Climate change effects on red spruce decline mitigated by reduction in air pollution within its shrinking habitat range," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 293(C), pages 81-90.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:19:p:12422-:d:929345. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.