IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i6p3301-d518780.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling Renewable Energy Systems by a Self-Evolving Nonlinear Consequent Part Recurrent Type-2 Fuzzy System for Power Prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Jafar Tavoosi

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran)

  • Amir Abolfazl Suratgar

    (Center of Excellence on Control and Robotics, Department of Electrical Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, 424 Hafez Ave, Tehran, Iran)

  • Mohammad Bagher Menhaj

    (Center of Excellence on Control and Robotics, Department of Electrical Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, 424 Hafez Ave, Tehran, Iran)

  • Amir Mosavi

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, Technische Universität Dresden, 01069 Dresden, Germany
    John von Neumann Faculty of Informatics, Obuda University, 1034 Budapest, Hungary)

  • Ardashir Mohammadzadeh

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Bonab, Bonab 551761167, Iran)

  • Ehsan Ranjbar

    (Center of Excellence on Control and Robotics, Department of Electrical Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, 424 Hafez Ave, Tehran, Iran)

Abstract

A novel Nonlinear Consequent Part Recurrent Type-2 Fuzzy System (NCPRT2FS) is presented for the modeling of renewable energy systems. Not only does this paper present a new architecture of the type-2 fuzzy system (T2FS) for identification and behavior prognostication of an experimental solar cell set and a wind turbine, but also, it introduces an exquisite technique to acquire an optimal number of membership functions (MFs) and their corresponding rules. Using nonlinear functions in the “Then” part of fuzzy rules, introducing a new mechanism in structure learning, using an adaptive learning rate and performing convergence analysis of the learning algorithm are the innovations of this paper. Another novel innovation is using optimization techniques (including pruning fuzzy rules, initial adjustment of MFs). Next, a solar photovoltaic cell and a wind turbine are deemed as case studies. The experimental data are exploited and the consequent yields emerge as convincing. The root-mean-square-error (RMSE) is less than 0.006 and the number of fuzzy rules is equal to or less than four rules, which indicates the very good performance of the presented fuzzy neural network. Finally, the obtained model is used for the first time for a geographical area to examine the feasibility of renewable energies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jafar Tavoosi & Amir Abolfazl Suratgar & Mohammad Bagher Menhaj & Amir Mosavi & Ardashir Mohammadzadeh & Ehsan Ranjbar, 2021. "Modeling Renewable Energy Systems by a Self-Evolving Nonlinear Consequent Part Recurrent Type-2 Fuzzy System for Power Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-21, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:6:p:3301-:d:518780
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/6/3301/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/6/3301/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Osório, G.J. & Matias, J.C.O. & Catalão, J.P.S., 2015. "Short-term wind power forecasting using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system combined with evolutionary particle swarm optimization, wavelet transform and mutual information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 301-307.
    2. Grahovac, Jovana & Jokić, Aleksandar & Dodić, Jelena & Vučurović, Damjan & Dodić, Siniša, 2016. "Modelling and prediction of bioethanol production from intermediates and byproduct of sugar beet processing using neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 953-958.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Panyu Tang & Mahdi Aghaabbasi & Mujahid Ali & Amin Jan & Abdeliazim Mustafa Mohamed & Abdullah Mohamed, 2022. "How Sustainable Is People’s Travel to Reach Public Transit Stations to Go to Work? A Machine Learning Approach to Reveal Complex Relationships," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-18, March.
    2. Fatemehsadat Mirshafiee & Emad Shahbazi & Mohadeseh Safi & Rituraj Rituraj, 2023. "Predicting Power and Hydrogen Generation of a Renewable Energy Converter Utilizing Data-Driven Methods: A Sustainable Smart Grid Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, January.
    3. Hasnat Bin Tariq & Naveed Ishtiaq Chaudhary & Zeshan Aslam Khan & Muhammad Asif Zahoor Raja & Khalid Mehmood Cheema & Ahmad H. Milyani, 2021. "Maximum-Likelihood-Based Adaptive and Intelligent Computing for Nonlinear System Identification," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(24), pages 1-23, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Narisetty, Vivek & Narisetty, Sudheera & Jacob, Samuel & Kumar, Deepak & Leeke, Gary A. & Chandel, Anuj Kumar & Singh, Vijai & Srivastava, Vimal Chandra & Kumar, Vinod, 2022. "Biological production and recovery of 2,3-butanediol using arabinose from sugar beet pulp by Enterobacter ludwigii," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 394-404.
    2. Hu, Jianming & Wang, Jianzhou, 2015. "Short-term wind speed prediction using empirical wavelet transform and Gaussian process regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1456-1466.
    3. Ata, Rasit, 2015. "Artificial neural networks applications in wind energy systems: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-562.
    4. Sizhou Sun & Jingqi Fu & Ang Li, 2019. "A Compound Wind Power Forecasting Strategy Based on Clustering, Two-Stage Decomposition, Parameter Optimization, and Optimal Combination of Multiple Machine Learning Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-22, September.
    5. Gniewko Niedbała, 2019. "Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Multi-Criteria Yield Prediction of Winter Rapeseed," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-13, January.
    6. Shahriari, M. & Cervone, G. & Clemente-Harding, L. & Delle Monache, L., 2020. "Using the analog ensemble method as a proxy measurement for wind power predictability," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 789-801.
    7. Yu, Min & Niu, Dongxiao & Gao, Tian & Wang, Keke & Sun, Lijie & Li, Mingyu & Xu, Xiaomin, 2023. "A novel framework for ultra-short-term interval wind power prediction based on RF-WOA-VMD and BiGRU optimized by the attention mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    8. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    9. Vadim Manusov & Pavel Matrenin & Muso Nazarov & Svetlana Beryozkina & Murodbek Safaraliev & Inga Zicmane & Anvari Ghulomzoda, 2023. "Short-Term Prediction of the Wind Speed Based on a Learning Process Control Algorithm in Isolated Power Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-12, January.
    10. Naveed, Muhammad Hamza & Khan, Muhammad Nouman Aslam & Mukarram, Muhammad & Naqvi, Salman Raza & Abdullah, Abdullah & Haq, Zeeshan Ul & Ullah, Hafeez & Mohamadi, Hamad Al, 2024. "Cellulosic biomass fermentation for biofuel production: Review of artificial intelligence approaches," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    11. Małgorzata Smuga-Kogut & Tomasz Kogut & Roksana Markiewicz & Adam Słowik, 2021. "Use of Machine Learning Methods for Predicting Amount of Bioethanol Obtained from Lignocellulosic Biomass with the Use of Ionic Liquids for Pretreatment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, January.
    12. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Tang, Yong & Zhao, Yongning & Zhong, Wuzhi & Qu, Ying & Zhai, Bingxu, 2021. "Ultra-short-term combined prediction approach based on kernel function switch mechanism," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 842-866.
    13. Weian Guo & Lei Zhu & Lei Wang & Qidi Wu & Fanrong Kong, 2019. "An Entropy-Assisted Particle Swarm Optimizer for Large-Scale Optimization Problem," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-12, May.
    14. Suganthi, L. & Iniyan, S. & Samuel, Anand A., 2015. "Applications of fuzzy logic in renewable energy systems – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 585-607.
    15. Pomeroy, Brett & Grilc, Miha & Likozar, Blaž, 2022. "Artificial neural networks for bio-based chemical production or biorefining: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    16. Han, Li & Romero, Carlos E. & Yao, Zheng, 2015. "Wind power forecasting based on principle component phase space reconstruction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 737-744.
    17. Xuejiao Ma & Dandan Liu, 2016. "Comparative Study of Hybrid Models Based on a Series of Optimization Algorithms and Their Application in Energy System Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-34, August.
    18. Niaze, Ambereen A. & Sahu, Rohit & Sunkara, Mahendra K. & Upadhyayula, Sreedevi, 2023. "Model construction and optimization for raising the concentration of industrial bioethanol production by using a data-driven ANN model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:6:p:3301-:d:518780. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.