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Factors Affecting COVID-19 Outbreaks across the Globe: Role of Extreme Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Debashis Nath

    (School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
    Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China)

  • Keerthi Sasikumar

    (Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    Institute of Atmospheric Physics, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Reshmita Nath

    (School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
    Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China)

  • Wen Chen

    (Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    Institute of Atmospheric Physics, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

Abstract

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a serious threat to global health system and economy. It was first reported in Wuhan, China, and later appeared in Central Asia, Europe, North America, and South America. The spatial COVID-19 distribution pattern highly resembles the global population distribution and international travel routes. We select 48 cities in 16 countries across 4 continents having infection counts higher than 10,000 (by 25 April 2020) as the COVID-19 epicenters. At the initial stage, daily COVID-19 counts co-varies strongly with local temperature and humidity, which are clustered within 0–10 °C and 70–95%, respectively. Later, it spreads in colder (−15 °C) and warmer (25 °C) countries, due to faster adaptability in diverse environmental conditions. We introduce a combined temperature-humidity profile, which is essential for prediction of COVID-19 cases based on environmental conditions. The COVID-19 epicenters are collocated on global CO 2 emission hotspots and its distribution maximizes at 7.49 °C, which is 1.35 °C/2.44 °C higher than current (2020)/historical (1961–1990) mean. Approximately 75% of the COVID-19 cases are clustered at severe-extreme end of historical temperature distribution spectrum, which establish its tighter and possible association with extreme climate change. A strong mitigation measure is essential to abate the GHG emissions, which may reduce the probability of such pandemics in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Debashis Nath & Keerthi Sasikumar & Reshmita Nath & Wen Chen, 2021. "Factors Affecting COVID-19 Outbreaks across the Globe: Role of Extreme Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-15, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:6:p:3029-:d:514251
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Toph Allen & Kris A. Murray & Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio & Stephen S. Morse & Carlo Rondinini & Moreno Di Marco & Nathan Breit & Kevin J. Olival & Peter Daszak, 2017. "Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Asian Development Bank Institute, 2017. "A Region at Risk: The Human Dimensions of Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific," Working Papers id:11878, eSocialSciences.
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    Cited by:

    1. Keyong Lin & S. Nurmaya Musa & Hwa Jen Yap, 2022. "Vehicle Routing Optimization for Pandemic Containment: A Systematic Review on Applications and Solution Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-27, February.

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