IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i24p13783-d701865.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Aggregated Electric Vehicle Fast-Charging Power Demand Analysis and Forecast Based on LSTM Neural Network

Author

Listed:
  • Munseok Chang

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea)

  • Sungwoo Bae

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea)

  • Gilhwan Cha

    (Algorigo Software Development Inc., Seoul 06103, Korea)

  • Jaehyun Yoo

    (Algorigo Software Development Inc., Seoul 06103, Korea)

Abstract

With the widespread use of electric vehicles, their charging power demand has increased and become a significant burden on power grids. The uncoordinated deployment of electric vehicle charging stations and the uncertainty surrounding charging behaviors can cause harmful impacts on power grids. The charging power demand during the fast charging process especially is severely fluctuating, because its charging duration is short and the rated power of the fast chargers is high. This paper presents a methodology to analyze and forecast the aggregated charging power demand from multiple fast-charging stations. Then, pattern of fast-charging power demand is analyzed to identify its irregular trend with the distribution of peak time and values. The forecasting model, based on long short-term memory neural network, is proposed in this paper to address the fluctuating of fast-charging power demand. The forecasting performance of the proposed model is validated in comparison with other deep learning approaches, using real-world datasets measured from fast-charging stations in Jeju Island, South Korea. The results show that the proposed model outperforms forecasting fast-charging power demand aggregated by multiple charging stations.

Suggested Citation

  • Munseok Chang & Sungwoo Bae & Gilhwan Cha & Jaehyun Yoo, 2021. "Aggregated Electric Vehicle Fast-Charging Power Demand Analysis and Forecast Based on LSTM Neural Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:24:p:13783-:d:701865
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/24/13783/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/24/13783/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Salah Bouktif & Ali Fiaz & Ali Ouni & Mohamed Adel Serhani, 2018. "Optimal Deep Learning LSTM Model for Electric Load Forecasting using Feature Selection and Genetic Algorithm: Comparison with Machine Learning Approaches †," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Qing Deng & Changsen Feng & Fushuan Wen & Chung-Li Tseng & Lei Wang & Bo Zou & Xizhu Zhang, 2019. "Evaluation of Accommodation Capability for Electric Vehicles of a Distribution System Considering Coordinated Charging Strategies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Arias, Mariz B. & Kim, Myungchin & Bae, Sungwoo, 2017. "Prediction of electric vehicle charging-power demand in realistic urban traffic networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 738-753.
    4. Sanchari Deb & Kari Tammi & Karuna Kalita & Pinakeshwar Mahanta, 2018. "Impact of Electric Vehicle Charging Station Load on Distribution Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, January.
    5. Ke Yan & Xudong Wang & Yang Du & Ning Jin & Haichao Huang & Hangxia Zhou, 2018. "Multi-Step Short-Term Power Consumption Forecasting with a Hybrid Deep Learning Strategy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, November.
    6. Kalogirou, Soteris A., 2001. "Artificial neural networks in renewable energy systems applications: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 373-401, December.
    7. Arias, Mariz B. & Bae, Sungwoo, 2016. "Electric vehicle charging demand forecasting model based on big data technologies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 327-339.
    8. Juncheng Zhu & Zhile Yang & Monjur Mourshed & Yuanjun Guo & Yimin Zhou & Yan Chang & Yanjie Wei & Shengzhong Feng, 2019. "Electric Vehicle Charging Load Forecasting: A Comparative Study of Deep Learning Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-19, July.
    9. Seongpil Cheon & Suk-Ju Kang, 2017. "An Electric Power Consumption Analysis System for the Installation of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-13, October.
    10. Ziwen Ling & Christopher R. Cherry & Yi Wen, 2021. "Determining the Factors That Influence Electric Vehicle Adoption: A Stated Preference Survey Study in Beijing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-22, October.
    11. Namhyun Ahn & So Yeon Jo & Suk-Ju Kang, 2019. "Constraint-Aware Electricity Consumption Estimation for Prevention of Overload by Electric Vehicle Charging Station," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, March.
    12. Majidpour, Mostafa & Qiu, Charlie & Chu, Peter & Pota, Hemanshu R. & Gadh, Rajit, 2016. "Forecasting the EV charging load based on customer profile or station measurement?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 134-141.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhouquan Wu & Pradeep Krishna Bhat & Bo Chen, 2023. "Optimal Configuration of Extreme Fast Charging Stations Integrated with Energy Storage System and Photovoltaic Panels in Distribution Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Young-Eun Jeon & Suk-Bok Kang & Jung-In Seo, 2022. "Hybrid Predictive Modeling for Charging Demand Prediction of Electric Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-15, April.
    3. Sabbir Ahmed & Sameera Mubarak & Jia Tina Du & Santoso Wibowo, 2022. "Forecasting the Status of Municipal Waste in Smart Bins Using Deep Learning," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Sahar Koohfar & Wubeshet Woldemariam & Amit Kumar, 2023. "Performance Comparison of Deep Learning Approaches in Predicting EV Charging Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-20, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yunsun Kim & Sahm Kim, 2021. "Forecasting Charging Demand of Electric Vehicles Using Time-Series Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Buzna, Luboš & De Falco, Pasquale & Ferruzzi, Gabriella & Khormali, Shahab & Proto, Daniela & Refa, Nazir & Straka, Milan & van der Poel, Gijs, 2021. "An ensemble methodology for hierarchical probabilistic electric vehicle load forecasting at regular charging stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    3. Zhang, Jing & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Zhang, Haoran & Lv, Guoliang, 2020. "Daily electric vehicle charging load profiles considering demographics of vehicle users," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    4. Yan, Jie & Zhang, Jing & Liu, Yongqian & Lv, Guoliang & Han, Shuang & Alfonzo, Ian Emmanuel Gonzalez, 2020. "EV charging load simulation and forecasting considering traffic jam and weather to support the integration of renewables and EVs," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 623-641.
    5. Mu Li & Yingqi Liu & Weizhong Yue, 2022. "Evolutionary Game of Actors in China’s Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-20, November.
    6. Golsefidi, Atefeh Hemmati & Hüttel, Frederik Boe & Peled, Inon & Samaranayake, Samitha & Pereira, Francisco Câmara, 2023. "A joint machine learning and optimization approach for incremental expansion of electric vehicle charging infrastructure," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    7. Wang, Shengyou & Zhuge, Chengxiang & Shao, Chunfu & Wang, Pinxi & Yang, Xiong & Wang, Shiqi, 2023. "Short-term electric vehicle charging demand prediction: A deep learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    8. Yvenn Amara-Ouali & Yannig Goude & Pascal Massart & Jean-Michel Poggi & Hui Yan, 2021. "A Review of Electric Vehicle Load Open Data and Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-35, April.
    9. Byungsung Lee & Haesung Lee & Hyun Ahn, 2020. "Improving Load Forecasting of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations Through Missing Data Imputation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-15, September.
    10. Jiaan Zhang & Chenyu Liu & Leijiao Ge, 2022. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Model of Electric Vehicle Charging Load Based on MCCNN-TCN," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-25, April.
    11. Khan, Waqas & Somers, Ward & Walker, Shalika & de Bont, Kevin & Van der Velden, Joep & Zeiler, Wim, 2023. "Comparison of electric vehicle load forecasting across different spatial levels with incorporated uncertainty estimation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    12. Motoaki, Yutaka & Yi, Wenqi & Salisbury, Shawn, 2018. "Empirical analysis of electric vehicle fast charging under cold temperatures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 162-168.
    13. Zhang, Tianren & Huang, Yuping & Liao, Hui & Liang, Yu, 2023. "A hybrid electric vehicle load classification and forecasting approach based on GBDT algorithm and temporal convolutional network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    14. Wang, Yue & Shi, Jianmai & Wang, Rui & Liu, Zhong & Wang, Ling, 2018. "Siting and sizing of fast charging stations in highway network with budget constraint," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1255-1271.
    15. Shepero, Mahmoud & Munkhammar, Joakim & Widén, Joakim & Bishop, Justin D.K. & Boström, Tobias, 2018. "Modeling of photovoltaic power generation and electric vehicles charging on city-scale: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 61-71.
    16. Shepero, Mahmoud & Munkhammar, Joakim, 2018. "Spatial Markov chain model for electric vehicle charging in cities using geographical information system (GIS) data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 1089-1099.
    17. Feng, Jian & Yao, Yifan & Liu, Zhenfeng & Liu, Zhenling, 2024. "Electric vehicle charging stations' installing strategies: Considering government subsidies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 370(C).
    18. Thomas Steens & Jan-Simon Telle & Benedikt Hanke & Karsten von Maydell & Carsten Agert & Gian-Luca Di Modica & Bernd Engel & Matthias Grottke, 2021. "A Forecast-Based Load Management Approach for Commercial Buildings Demonstrated on an Integration of BEV," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-25, June.
    19. Li, Xiaohui & Wang, Zhenpo & Zhang, Lei & Sun, Fengchun & Cui, Dingsong & Hecht, Christopher & Figgener, Jan & Sauer, Dirk Uwe, 2023. "Electric vehicle behavior modeling and applications in vehicle-grid integration: An overview," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    20. Shin-Ki Hong & Sung Gu Lee & Myungchin Kim, 2020. "Assessment and Mitigation of Electric Vehicle Charging Demand Impact to Transformer Aging for an Apartment Complex," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-23, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:24:p:13783-:d:701865. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.