IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i21p12067-d670175.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Combined Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes on Long-Term Streamflow in the Upper Halda Basin, Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Farzana Raihan

    (Department of Forestry and Environmental Sciences, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
    Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia)

  • Gabrijel Ondrasek

    (Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zagreb, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Mohammad Shahidul Islam

    (Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh)

  • Joseph M. Maina

    (Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia)

  • Linda J. Beaumont

    (Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia)

Abstract

In Bangladesh, rapid population growth and associated land-use changes are escalating water scarcity issues, which will be further exacerbated under ongoing climate change. As such, predicting the consequences of climate and land-use change on freshwater supplies is critical for the sustainable management of water resources. In this study, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) associated with a Land Cover Model (LCM) were used to simulate long-term stream flows in the Halda Basin, Bangladesh, under baseline and future climate and land-use change scenarios. In addition, the separate and combined impacts of both types of change on long-term streamflow projections were assessed. Results indicate that by the 2060s, the maximum temperature of the Halda Basin may rise by 1.6 °C in comparison to the baseline 1986–2005 period, while minimum temperature will also increase, albeit at a lower rate than maximum temperature. Precipitation during the dry season is expected to increase, although it may decline in the monsoon period. Simulations show that these changes in climate are likely to increase future streamflow in the Halda catchment, with monthly streamflow influenced mainly by the variability in precipitation. The LCM projected decreases in grassland along with cultivated land at the expense of artificial areas. Combined, future climate and land-use changes are projected to increase annual streamflow, with climate change likely to be a greater driver of altered streamflow than land-use changes. Our results should guide environmental management authorities in more sustainable and strategic water resource planning under global climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Farzana Raihan & Gabrijel Ondrasek & Mohammad Shahidul Islam & Joseph M. Maina & Linda J. Beaumont, 2021. "Combined Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes on Long-Term Streamflow in the Upper Halda Basin, Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-15, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:21:p:12067-:d:670175
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/21/12067/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/21/12067/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peng Shi & Chao Chen & Ragahavan Srinivasan & Xuesong Zhang & Tao Cai & Xiuqin Fang & Simin Qu & Xi Chen & Qiongfang Li, 2011. "Evaluating the SWAT Model for Hydrological Modeling in the Xixian Watershed and a Comparison with the XAJ Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(10), pages 2595-2612, August.
    2. Daniel Hollander & Brittany Ajroud & Evan Thomas & Shawn Peabody & Elizabeth Jordan & Amy Javernick-Will & Karl Linden, 2020. "Monitoring Methods for Systems-Strengthening Activities Toward Sustainable Water and Sanitation Services in Low-Income Settings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-16, August.
    3. Yingming Zhu & Yuan Li & Yi Wang & Lingfeng Li, 2021. "The Impact of Water and Soil Scarcity and Pollution on Industrial Agglomeration: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    4. Animesh Gain & Yoshihide Wada, 2014. "Assessment of Future Water Scarcity at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales of the Brahmaputra River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 999-1012, March.
    5. Jiwan Lee & Yonggwan Lee & Soyoung Woo & Wonjin Kim & Seongjoon Kim, 2020. "Evaluation of Water Quality Interaction by Dam and Weir Operation Using SWAT in the Nakdong River Basin of South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-19, August.
    6. Sumaiya Jarin Ahammed & Eun-Sung Chung & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2018. "Parametric Assessment of Pre-Monsoon Agricultural Water Scarcity in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-18, March.
    7. Nur Mohammad Ha-Mim & Md. Zakir Hossain & Khan Rubayet Rahaman & Bishawjit Mallick, 2020. "Exploring Vulnerability–Resilience–Livelihood Nexus in the Face of Climate Change: A Multi-Criteria Analysis for Mongla, Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-24, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amuktamalyada Gorlapalli & Supriya Kallakuri & Pagadala Damodaram Sreekanth & Rahul Patil & Nirmala Bandumula & Gabrijel Ondrasek & Meena Admala & Channappa Gireesh & Madhyavenkatapura Siddaiah Ananth, 2022. "Characterization and Prediction of Water Stress Using Time Series and Artificial Intelligence Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Salem, Golam Saleh Ahmed & Kazama, So & Shahid, Shamsuddin & Dey, Nepal C., 2018. "Impacts of climate change on groundwater level and irrigation cost in a groundwater dependent irrigated region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 33-42.
    2. Lu Zhuo & Dawei Han & Qiang Dai & Tanvir Islam & Prashant Srivastava, 2015. "Appraisal of NLDAS-2 Multi-Model Simulated Soil Moistures for Hydrological Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3503-3517, August.
    3. Ferdous Ahmed, 2012. "A Hydrologic Model of Kemptville Basin—Calibration and Extended Validation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2583-2604, July.
    4. Vesna Đukić & Zoran Radić, 2016. "Sensitivity Analysis of a Physically Based Distributed Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(5), pages 1669-1684, March.
    5. Menghao Wang & Shanhu Jiang & Liliang Ren & Chong-Yu Xu & Linyong Wei & Hao Cui & Fei Yuan & Yi Liu & Xiaoli Yang, 2022. "The Development of a Nonstationary Standardised Streamflow Index Using Climate and Reservoir Indices as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1377-1392, March.
    6. Jiajun He & Xin Fan & Lin Chen & Zirui Huang & Yiming Zhao & Chenzhi Zhang, 2023. "Improving the Livelihood Resilience of Poverty-Stricken Population under Rural Revitalization: A Case Study of Chongqing M Reservoir Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-19, September.
    7. Ali Suliman & Milad Jajarmizadeh & Sobri Harun & Intan Mat Darus, 2015. "Comparison of Semi-Distributed, GIS-Based Hydrological Models for the Prediction of Streamflow in a Large Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3095-3110, July.
    8. Phong Nguyen Thanh & Thinh Le Van & Tuan Tran Minh & Tuyen Huynh Ngoc & Worapong Lohpaisankrit & Quoc Bao Pham & Alexandre S. Gagnon & Proloy Deb & Nhat Truong Pham & Duong Tran Anh & Vuong Nguyen Din, 2023. "Adapting to Climate-Change-Induced Drought Stress to Improve Water Management in Southeast Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-27, June.
    9. Mohammad Ahsan Uddin & ASM Maksud Kamal & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-Sung Chung, 2020. "Volatility in Rainfall and Predictability of Droughts in Northwest Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-20, November.
    10. Mondol, Md Anarul Haque & Zhu, Xuan & Dunkerley, David & Henley, Benjamin J., 2022. "Changing occurrence of crop water surplus or deficit and the impact of irrigation: An analysis highlighting consequences for rice production in Bangladesh," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    11. Rachit Saxena & Sai Kranthi Vanga & Jin Wang & Valérie Orsat & Vijaya Raghavan, 2018. "Millets for Food Security in the Context of Climate Change: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-31, June.
    12. Peng Shi & Xinxin Ma & Yuanbing Hou & Qiongfang Li & Zhicai Zhang & Simin Qu & Chao Chen & Tao Cai & Xiuqin Fang, 2013. "Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Hydrological Processes in the Upstream of Huai River, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1263-1278, March.
    13. M. W. Straatsma & P. T. M. Vermeulen & M. J. M. Kuijper & M. Bonte & F. G. M. Niele & M. F. P. Bierkens, 2016. "Rapid Screening of Operational Freshwater Availability Using Global Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(9), pages 3013-3026, July.
    14. Jiao Liu & Tie Liu & Anming Bao & Philippe Maeyer & Xianwei Feng & Scott N. Miller & Xi Chen, 2016. "Assessment of Different Modelling Studies on the Spatial Hydrological Processes in an Arid Alpine Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(5), pages 1757-1770, March.
    15. Zafar Hussain & Zongmin Wang & Jiaxue Wang & Haibo Yang & Muhammad Arfan & Daniyal Hassan & Wusen Wang & Muhammad Imran Azam & Muhammad Faisal, 2022. "A comparative Appraisal of Classical and Holistic Water Scarcity Indicators," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(3), pages 931-950, February.
    16. Shawei He & Keith Hipel & D. Kilgour, 2014. "Water Diversion Conflicts in China: A Hierarchical Perspective," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(7), pages 1823-1837, May.
    17. Neera Shrestha Pradhan & Partha Jyoti Das & Nishikant Gupta & Arun Bhakta Shrestha, 2021. "Sustainable Management Options for Healthy Rivers in South Asia: The Case of Brahmaputra," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-23, January.
    18. Subbarao Pichuka & Rajib Maity, 2020. "Assessment of Extreme Precipitation in Future through Time-Invariant and Time-Varying Downscaling Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(5), pages 1809-1826, March.
    19. Mohamed Salem Nashwan & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-Sung Chung & Kamal Ahmed & Young Hoon Song, 2018. "Development of Climate-Based Index for Hydrologic Hazard Susceptibility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, June.
    20. Boini Narsimlu & Ashvin Gosain & Baghu Chahar, 2013. "Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Upper Sind River Basin, India Using SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3647-3662, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:21:p:12067-:d:670175. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.