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A Future Study of an Environment Driving Force (EDR): The Impacts of Urmia Lake Water-Level Fluctuations on Human Settlements

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  • Somayeh Mohammadi Hamidi

    (Department of Sustainable Landscape Development, Institute for Geosciences and Geography, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany
    Department of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil 009845, Iran)

  • Christine Fürst

    (Department of Sustainable Landscape Development, Institute for Geosciences and Geography, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany)

  • Hossein Nazmfar

    (Department of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil 009845, Iran)

  • Ahad Rezayan

    (Futures Studies Department, National Research Institute for Science Policy, Tehran 009821, Iran)

  • Mohammad Hassan Yazdani

    (Department of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil 009845, Iran)

Abstract

Lake Urmia, one of the world’s largest salt lakes, is rapidly losing water and drying up. This environmental hazard has raised concerns about the consequences and impact on the surrounding communities. In this paper, we use a futuristic view (horizon of 10 years based on medium-term planning) to identify the main environmental drivers in the surrounding settlements of the Urmia Lake basin. A qualitative method, based on cross-impact analysis, was used as a means of future research. We also used a Delphi-based expert panel method to collect data and extract the environmental impacts of Urmia Lake. After the three rounds of the Delphi process, the expert panel reached a high level of agreement (100%) on the top 17 environmental consequences. Then, these consequences were classified by driving force and dependency using the MICMAC method. The results show that reducing pasture area, soil and water salinity, groundwater decline and depletion, and destruction of surrounding agricultural lands play a significant role in environmental change in Urmia Lake. Overall, any small change in these variables may lead to fundamental changes in the entire system.

Suggested Citation

  • Somayeh Mohammadi Hamidi & Christine Fürst & Hossein Nazmfar & Ahad Rezayan & Mohammad Hassan Yazdani, 2021. "A Future Study of an Environment Driving Force (EDR): The Impacts of Urmia Lake Water-Level Fluctuations on Human Settlements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:20:p:11495-:d:659167
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    2. Mojtaba Kadkhodazadeh & Mahdi Valikhan Anaraki & Amirreza Morshed-Bozorgdel & Saeed Farzin, 2022. "A New Methodology for Reference Evapotranspiration Prediction and Uncertainty Analysis under Climate Change Conditions Based on Machine Learning, Multi Criteria Decision Making and Monte Carlo Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-37, February.
    3. Emami, Somayeh & Dehghanisanij, Hossein & Hajimirzajan, Amir, 2024. "Agent-based simulation model to evaluate government policies for farmers’ adoption and synergy in improving irrigation systems: A case study of Lake Urmia basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
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