IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i14p7598-d590062.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantitative Analysis of Global Terrorist Attacks Based on the Global Terrorism Database

Author

Listed:
  • Zhongbei Li

    (School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
    School of Civil, Mining and Environmental Engineering, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2500, Australia)

  • Xiangchun Li

    (School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China)

  • Chen Dong

    (School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China)

  • Fanfan Guo

    (School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China)

  • Fan Zhang

    (School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China)

  • Qi Zhang

    (School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

Terrorist attacks have become a serious source of risk affecting the security of the international community. Using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), in order to quantitatively study past terrorist attacks and their temporal and spatial evolution the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to classify the degree of damage from terrorist attacks. The various factors influencing terrorist attacks were extracted and represented in three dimensions. Subsequently, using MATLAB for analysis and processing, the grading standards for terrorist attacks were classified into five levels according to the degree of hazard. Based on this grading standard, the top ten terrorist attacks with the highest degree of hazard in the past two decades were listed. Because the characteristics and habits of a terrorist or group exhibit a certain consistency, the K-means cluster analysis method was used to classify terrorists according to region, type of attack, type of target and type of weapon used by the terrorists. Several attacks that might have been committed by the same terrorist organization or individual at different times and in different locations were classified into one category, and the top five categories were selected according to the degree of sabotage inflicted by the organization or individual. Finally, the spatiotemporal evolution of terrorist attacks in the past three years was analyzed, considering the terrorist attack targets and key areas of terrorist attacks. The Middle East, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Africa were predicted to be the regions that will be most seriously affected by future global terrorist events. The terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia are expected to become more severe, and the scope of terrorist attacks in Africa is expected to widen. Civilians are the targets most at risk for terrorist attacks, and the corresponding risk index is considerably higher than it is for other targets. The results of this research can help individuals and the government to enable a better understanding of terrorism, improve awareness to prevent terrorism and enhance emergency management and rescue, and provide a solid and reliable basis and reference for joint counterterrorism in various countries and regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhongbei Li & Xiangchun Li & Chen Dong & Fanfan Guo & Fan Zhang & Qi Zhang, 2021. "Quantitative Analysis of Global Terrorist Attacks Based on the Global Terrorism Database," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:14:p:7598-:d:590062
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/14/7598/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/14/7598/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhichao Chen & Tao Chen & Zhuohua Qu & Zaili Yang & Xuewei Ji & Yi Zhou & Hui Zhang, 2018. "Use of evidential reasoning and AHP to assess regional industrial safety," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Xueli Hu & Fujun Lai & Gufan Chen & Rongcheng Zou & Qingxiang Feng, 2019. "Quantitative Research on Global Terrorist Attacks and Terrorist Attack Classification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, March.
    4. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler & Khusrav Gaibulloev, 2011. "Domestic Versus Transnational Terrorism: Data, Decomposition, and Dynamics," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(3), pages 319-337, May.
    5. Barry Charles Ezell & Steven P. Bennett & Detlof Von Winterfeldt & John Sokolowski & Andrew J. Collins, 2010. "Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Terrorism Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(4), pages 575-589, April.
    6. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening? A Time-Series Investigation," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1823, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "What causes terrorism?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 3-27, April.
    8. Aaron Clauset & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2012. "The Developmental Dynamics of Terrorist Organizations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(11), pages 1-11, November.
    9. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(3), pages 307-332, June.
    10. Sarah Brockhoff & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2015. "Great Expectations and Hard Times," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 59(7), pages 1186-1215, October.
    11. Thomas L. Saaty, 1994. "How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 24(6), pages 19-43, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Musa Aishat Suleiman, 2023. "Transnational Organized Crime, Mass Kidnapping and National Security in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(2), pages 1101-1112, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Claude Berrebi & Jordan Ostwald, 2011. "Earthquakes, hurricanes, and terrorism: do natural disasters incite terror?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 383-403, December.
    2. Daniel Arce & Sneha Bakshi & Rachel Croson & Catherine Eckel & Enrique Fatas & Malcolm Kass, 2011. "Counterterrorism strategies in the lab," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 465-478, December.
    3. Martin Gassebner & Simon Luechinger, 2011. "Lock, stock, and barrel: a comprehensive assessment of the determinants of terror," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 235-261, December.
    4. Claude Berrebi & Jordan Ostwald, 2011. "Earthquakes, hurricanes, and terrorism: do natural disasters incite terror?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 383-403, December.
    5. L. Elbakidze & Y. H. Jin, 2015. "Are Economic Development and Education Improvement Associated with Participation in Transnational Terrorism?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(8), pages 1520-1535, August.
    6. Wukki Kim & Todd Sandler, 2020. "Middle East and North Africa: Terrorism and Conflicts," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 11(4), pages 424-438, September.
    7. Economou Athina & Kollias Christos, 2015. "Terrorism and Political Self-Placement in European Union Countries," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 217-238, April.
    8. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2013. "Determinants of the Demise of Terrorist Organizations," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 774-792, April.
    9. Syed Muhammad All-E-Raza Rizvi & Marie-Ange Véganzonès-Varoudakis, 2019. "Economic, social, and institutional determinants of domestic conflict in fragile States," Working Papers hal-02340977, HAL.
    10. Aaron Clauset & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2012. "The Developmental Dynamics of Terrorist Organizations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(11), pages 1-11, November.
    11. Rafat Mahmood & Michael Jetter, 2020. "Communications Technology and Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(1), pages 127-166, January.
    12. James Piazza, 2011. "The illicit drug trade, counternarcotics strategies and terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 297-314, December.
    13. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger, 2005. "Measuring terrorism," Chapters, in: Alain Marciano & Jean-Michel Josselin (ed.), Law and the State, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Christopher Gelpi & Nazli Avdan, 2018. "Democracies at risk? A forecasting analysis of regime type and the risk of terrorist attack," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(1), pages 18-42, January.
    15. Kollias, Christos & Kyrtsou, Catherine & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2013. "The effects of terrorism and war on the oil price–stock index relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 743-752.
    16. Jülide Yildirim & Nadir Öcal, 2013. "Analysing The Determinants Of Terrorism In Turkey Using Geographically Weighted Regression," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 195-209, June.
    17. William F. Shughart, 2011. "Terrorism in Rational Choice Perspective," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. S. Blomberg & Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2011. "Terrorist group survival: ideology, tactics, and base of operations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 441-463, December.
    19. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and terrorism: the long lasting effect of seismic shocks," Economics Working Papers 1599, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    20. Caruso, Raul & Schneider, Friedrich, 2013. "Brutality of Jihadist terrorism. A contest theory perspective and empirical evidence in the period 2002–2010," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 685-696.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:14:p:7598-:d:590062. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.