IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i11p6284-d567468.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projection of Water Availability and Sustainability in Nigeria Due to Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammed Sanusi Shiru

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, Korea
    Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Federal University Dutse, Dutse P.M.B 7156, Nigeria)

  • Shamsuddin Shahid

    (Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia)

  • Inhwan Park

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, Korea)

Abstract

This study projects water availability and sustainability in Nigeria due to climate change. This study used Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage data (TWS), Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) precipitation data and Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature data. Four general circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 were downscaled using the best of four downscaling methods. Two machine learning (ML) models, RF and SVM, were developed to simulate GRACE TWS data for the period 2002–2016 and were then used for the projection of spatiotemporal changes in TWS. The projected TWS data were used to assess the spatiotemporal changes in water availability and sustainability based on the reliability–resiliency–vulnerability (RRV) concept. This study revealed that linear scaling was the best for downscaling over Nigeria. RF had better performance than SVM in modeling TWS for the study area. This study also revealed there would be decreases in water storage during the wet season (June–September) and increases in the dry season (January–May). Decreases in projected water availability were in the range of 0–12 mm for the periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099 under RCP2.6 and in the range of 0–17 mm under RCP8.5 during the wet season. Spatially, annual changes in water storage are expected to increase in the northern part and decrease in the south, particularly in the country’s southeast. Groundwater sustainability was higher during the period 2070–2099 under all RCPs compared to the other periods and this can be attributed to the expected increases in rainfall during this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Shamsuddin Shahid & Inhwan Park, 2021. "Projection of Water Availability and Sustainability in Nigeria Due to Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-16, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:11:p:6284-:d:567468
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/11/6284/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/11/6284/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Salem, Golam Saleh Ahmed & Kazama, So & Shahid, Shamsuddin & Dey, Nepal C., 2018. "Impacts of climate change on groundwater level and irrigation cost in a groundwater dependent irrigated region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 33-42.
    2. Mohammad Naser Sediqi & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Mohamed Salem Nashwan & Rawshan Ali & Shadan Abubaker & Xiaojun Wang & Kamal Ahmed & Shamsuddin Shahid & Md. Asaduzzaman & Sayed Mir Agha Manawi, 2019. "Spatio-Temporal Pattern in the Changes in Availability and Sustainability of Water Resources in Afghanistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-17, October.
    3. Saleem A. Salman & Shamsuddin Shahid & Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2020. "Changes in Climatic Water Availability and Crop Water Demand for Iraq Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, April.
    4. Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Shamsuddin Shahid & Noraliani Alias & Eun-Sung Chung, 2018. "Trend Analysis of Droughts during Crop Growing Seasons of Nigeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-13, March.
    5. Matthew Rodell & Isabella Velicogna & James S. Famiglietti, 2009. "Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7258), pages 999-1002, August.
    6. Golam Saleh Ahmed Salem & So Kazama & Daisuke Komori & Shamsuddin Shahid & Nepal C. Dey, 2017. "Optimum Abstraction of Groundwater for Sustaining Groundwater Level and Reducing Irrigation Cost," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(6), pages 1947-1959, April.
    7. Pieter Oel & Dawit Mulatu & Vincent Odongo & Frank Meins & Rick Hogeboom & Robert Becht & Alfred Stein & Japheth Onyando & Anne Veen, 2013. "The Effects of Groundwater and Surface Water Use on Total Water Availability and Implications for Water Management: The Case of Lake Naivasha, Kenya," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(9), pages 3477-3492, July.
    8. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    9. Jang Hyun Sung & Eun-Sung Chung & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2018. "Reliability–Resiliency–Vulnerability Approach for Drought Analysis in South Korea Using 28 GCMs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-16, August.
    10. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Qingsong & Sun, Jiahao & Dai, Changlei & Zhang, Guangxin & Wu, Yanfeng, 2024. "Sustainable development of groundwater resources under the large-scale conversion of dry land into rice fields," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    2. Ieva Meidute-Kavaliauskiene & Milad Alizadeh Jabehdar & Vida Davidavičienė & Mohammad Ali Ghorbani & Saad Sh. Sammen, 2021. "A Simple Way to Increase the Prediction Accuracy of Hydrological Processes Using an Artificial Intelligence Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
    3. Stephen Afrifa & Tao Zhang & Peter Appiahene & Vijayakumar Varadarajan, 2022. "Mathematical and Machine Learning Models for Groundwater Level Changes: A Systematic Review and Bibliographic Analysis," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-31, August.
    4. Volkan Yilmaz & Mehmet Alpars, 2023. "An Investigation of the Temporal Interaction of Urban Water Consumption in the Framework of Settlement Characteristics," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(4), pages 1619-1639, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohammad Ahsan Uddin & ASM Maksud Kamal & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-Sung Chung, 2020. "Volatility in Rainfall and Predictability of Droughts in Northwest Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-20, November.
    2. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    3. Mohammad Naser Sediqi & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Mohamed Salem Nashwan & Rawshan Ali & Shadan Abubaker & Xiaojun Wang & Kamal Ahmed & Shamsuddin Shahid & Md. Asaduzzaman & Sayed Mir Agha Manawi, 2019. "Spatio-Temporal Pattern in the Changes in Availability and Sustainability of Water Resources in Afghanistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-17, October.
    4. Mohd Khairul Idlan Muhammad & Mohamed Salem Nashwan & Shamsuddin Shahid & Tarmizi bin Ismail & Young Hoon Song & Eun-Sung Chung, 2019. "Evaluation of Empirical Reference Evapotranspiration Models Using Compromise Programming: A Case Study of Peninsular Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-19, August.
    5. Mohd Sayeed Ul Hasan & Mufti Mohammad Saif & Nehal Ahmad & Abhishek Kumar Rai & Mohammad Amir Khan & Ali Aldrees & Wahaj Ahmad Khan & Mustafa K. A. Mohammed & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Future Trends in Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies at Different Climatic Zones of India Using GRACE/GRACE-FO," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-24, January.
    6. Mohammad Rajab Houmsi & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Mohamed Salem Nashwan & Kamal Ahmed & Ghaith Falah Ziarh & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-Sung Chung & Sungkon Kim, 2019. "Spatial Shift of Aridity and Its Impact on Land Use of Syria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-18, December.
    7. Zunfu Lv & Yan Zhu & Xiaojun Liu & Hongbao Ye & Yongchao Tian & Feifei Li, 2018. "Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 523-537, April.
    8. Shanmugam Mohan Kumar & Vellingiri Geethalakshmi & Subbiah Ramanathan & Alagarsamy Senthil & Kandasamy Senthilraja & Kulanthaivel Bhuvaneswari & Ramasamy Gowtham & Balaji Kannan & Shanmugavel Priyanka, 2022. "Rainfall Spatial-Temporal Variability and Trends in the Thamirabharani River Basin, India: Implications for Agricultural Planning and Water Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-22, November.
    9. Bell, Andrew & Zhu, Tingju & Xie, Hua & Ringler, Claudia, 2014. "Climate–water interactions—Challenges for improved representation in integrated assessment models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 510-521.
    10. Mahiuddin Alamgir & Morteza Mohsenipour & Rajab Homsi & Xiaojun Wang & Shamsuddin Shahid & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Nor Eliza Alias & Ali Yuzir, 2019. "Parametric Assessment of Seasonal Drought Risk to Crop Production in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, March.
    11. Saleem A. Salman & Shamsuddin Shahid & Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2020. "Changes in Climatic Water Availability and Crop Water Demand for Iraq Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, April.
    12. Jin Hyuck Kim & Jang Hyun Sung & Eun-Sung Chung & Sang Ug Kim & Minwoo Son & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru, 2021. "Comparison of Projection in Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in the Cheongmicheon Watershed for RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-22, February.
    13. Mohammed Magdy Hamed & Mohamed Salem Nashwan & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2022. "Comparison between CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models over MENA Region Using Historical Simulations and Future Projections," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-20, August.
    14. Thennakoon, Jayanthi & Findlay, Christopher & Huang, Jikun & Wang, Jinxia, 2020. "Management adaptation to flood in Guangdong Province in China: Do property rights Matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    15. Giuseppe Maggio & Marina Mastrorillo & Nicholas J. Sitko, 2022. "Adapting to High Temperatures: Effect of Farm Practices and Their Adoption Duration on Total Value of Crop Production in Uganda," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 385-403, January.
    16. Salem, Golam Saleh Ahmed & Kazama, So & Shahid, Shamsuddin & Dey, Nepal C., 2018. "Impacts of climate change on groundwater level and irrigation cost in a groundwater dependent irrigated region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 33-42.
    17. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    18. Seydou Zakari & Germaine Ibro & Bokar Moussa & Tahirou Abdoulaye, 2022. "Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and Impacts on Household Income and Food Security: Evidence from Sahelian Region of Niger," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, March.
    19. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    20. Vermaak, Herman Jacobus & Kusakana, Kanzumba & Koko, Sandile Philip, 2014. "Status of micro-hydrokinetic river technology in rural applications: A review of literature," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 625-633.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:11:p:6284-:d:567468. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.