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Assessing Anthropogenic Dynamics in Megacities from the Characterization of Land Use/Land Cover Changes: The Bogotá Study Case

Author

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  • Claudia P. Romero

    (Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de València, 46022 Valencia, Spain
    Department Environmental Engineering, Universidad Santo Tomás, Bogotá 110321, Colombia)

  • Alicia García-Arias

    (Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de València, 46022 Valencia, Spain)

  • Celine Dondeynaz

    (Research Executive Agency, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Félix Francés

    (Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de València, 46022 Valencia, Spain)

Abstract

Usually, megacities expand without proper planning in a context of demographic growth and are increasingly dependent on the natural resources related to the occupied area. This is a major challenge for the sustainable management of these territories, justifying the need for a better knowledge of land use/land cover (LULC) distribution and characteristics to observe spatial anthropogenic dynamics. In this study, the Bogotá river basin and the Bogotá megacity were analyzed as a case study. The main objective of this work was to analyze the historical LULC dynamics from 1985 to 2014. Reliable forecasting scenarios were developed using the Land Change Modeler to support sustainable management and planning. Results show an expansion of the Bogotá megacity toward the Northeast and an increase of urban areas within the basin. These changes implied a loss of 58% of forest surface, a strategic ecosystem, from 1985 to 2014. This dynamic is expected to continue, with a 50% increase of urban areas between 2012 to 2050, thus the megacity and neighbor cities potentially become an “urban continuum”. A replacement of crop and pasture lands near the city is expected, even though Bogotá lands are among the best agricultural lands in the Andean region of Colombia.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia P. Romero & Alicia García-Arias & Celine Dondeynaz & Félix Francés, 2020. "Assessing Anthropogenic Dynamics in Megacities from the Characterization of Land Use/Land Cover Changes: The Bogotá Study Case," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-21, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:9:p:3884-:d:355986
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karima Kourtit & Peter Nijkamp & Mark D. Partridge, 2013. "The New Urban World," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 285-290, March.
    2. Robert Gilmore Pontius, 2018. "Criteria to Confirm Models that Simulate Deforestation and Carbon Disturbance," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-14, September.
    3. Danna-Buitrago, Jenny Paola & Stellian, Rémi, 2017. "Competitividad de los productos agropecuarios colombianos en el marco del tratado de libre comercio con los Estados Unidos: análisis de las ventajas comparativas," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kılkış, Şiir, 2022. "Urban emissions and land use efficiency scenarios towards effective climate mitigation in urban systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

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