The impact of land-use policy on household energy transition: Evidence from China's conversion of cropland to forestland program

The implementation of the Conversion of Cropland to Forestland Program (CCFP) has affected land-use patterns and biomass availability in China, consequently reshaping household energy consumption patterns. Utilizing data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, this study employs a multinomial logit model to examine the impact of CCFP subsidies on household energy transitions, analyzed through the lenses of the energy ladder and energy types. Additionally, this study differentiates the effects of CCFP subsidies across households with varying characteristics. The empirical results reveal that, from the energy ladder perspective, CCFP subsidies hinder household energy transitions from biomass to both traditional and advanced commercial energy sources. From the energy type perspective, the subsidies impede transitions from biomass energy to coal, electricity, and LPG/LNG. These adverse effects may be attributed to the CCFP subsidy's role in increasing biomass supply and encouraging the use of biomass energy equipment. Moreover, the impacts of CCFP subsidies differ among households based on education level, location, and degree of engagement in farming. Overall, this study highlights the importance of considering land use policies and patterns in the formulation of energy policies aimed at promoting energy transition and alleviating energy poverty.