IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i4p1472-d321357.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sovereign Credit Spread Spillovers in Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Biao Guo

    (School of Finance, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China)

  • Qian Han

    (Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China)

  • Jufang Liang

    (College of Finance and Statistics, Hunan University, Changsha 410006, China)

  • Doojin Ryu

    (College of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul 03063, Korea)

  • Jinyoung Yu

    (College of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul 03063, Korea)

Abstract

Sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads exhibit strong co-movements across Asian countries and regions, including both emerging and developed economies. After controlling for global impacts, we examine the regional lead-lag relationships among changes in ten Asian sovereign CDS spreads. We use the pairwise Granger causality test to find that lagged changes in Kazakhstan’s sovereign CDS spreads significantly predict changes in other Asian sovereign CDS spreads. By estimating the news-diffusion model, we find evidence that this predictive relationship may be explained by information diffusion. Furthermore, we find that lagged changes in Kazakhstan’s CDS spreads have significant out-of-sample predictive power for other Asian economies, providing practical implications for sustainable investments and risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Biao Guo & Qian Han & Jufang Liang & Doojin Ryu & Jinyoung Yu, 2020. "Sovereign Credit Spread Spillovers in Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-14, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:4:p:1472-:d:321357
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/4/1472/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/4/1472/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    2. Carlos Caceres & D. Filiz Unsal, 2013. "Sovereign Spreads and Contagion Risks in Asia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 219-243, September.
    3. Kalbaska, A. & Gątkowski, M., 2012. "Eurozone sovereign contagion: Evidence from the CDS market (2005–2010)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 657-673.
    4. Paolo Mauro & Nathan Sussman & Yishay Yafeh, 2002. "Emerging Market Spreads: Then versus Now," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 695-733.
    5. Song, Wonho & Park, Sung Y. & Ryu, Doojin, 2018. "Dynamic conditional relationships between developed and emerging markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 507(C), pages 534-543.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    7. Paolo Manasse & Luca Zavalloni, 2013. "Sovereign Contagion in Europe: Evidence from the CDS Market," Working Papers 471, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    8. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2015. "Modeling Credit Contagion via the Updating of Fragile Beliefs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(7), pages 1960-2008.
    9. Fink, Fabian & Schüler, Yves S., 2015. "The transmission of US systemic financial stress: Evidence for emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 6-26.
    10. Karan Bhanot & Liang Guo, 2012. "Types of liquidity and limits to arbitrage—the case of credit default swaps," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 301-329, April.
    11. Dailami, Mansoor & Masson, Paul R. & Padou, Jean Jose, 2008. "Global monetary conditions versus country-specific factors in the determination of emerging market debt spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1325-1336, December.
    12. Gande, Amar & Parsley, David C., 2005. "News spillovers in the sovereign debt market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 691-734, March.
    13. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    14. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Donghyun Park, 2016. "Fundamentals and Sovereign Risk of Emerging Markets," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 151-177, May.
    15. Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
    16. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2003. "Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 639-654, May.
    17. Diaz Weigel, Diana & Gemmill, Gordon, 2006. "What drives credit risk in emerging markets? The roles of country fundamentals and market co-movements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 476-502, April.
    18. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2013. "International Stock Return Predictability: What Is the Role of the United States?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1633-1662, August.
    19. Ang, Andrew & Longstaff, Francis A., 2013. "Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 493-510.
    20. Li, Haiping & Semeyutin, Artur & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Gozgor, Giray, 2020. "The relationship between oil and financial markets in emerging economies: The significant role of Kazakhstan as the oil exporting country," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    21. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Thuraisamy, Kannan, 2013. "Oil price uncertainty and sovereign risk: Evidence from Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 51-57.
    22. Biao Guo & David Newton, 2013. "Regime-Dependent Liquidity Determinants Of Credit Default Swap Spread Changes," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 279-298, June.
    23. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
    24. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign CDS Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
    25. Biao Guo & Yukun Shi & Yaofei Xu, 2020. "Volatility information difference between CDS, options, and the cross section of options returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(12), pages 2025-2036, December.
    26. Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
    27. Jung Park, Yuen & Kutan, Ali M. & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "The impacts of overseas market shocks on the CDS-option basis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 622-636.
    28. Vivek Arora & Martin Cerisola, 2001. "How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 1-3.
    29. Bouri, Elie & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Pavlova, Ivelina, 2017. "Volatility transmission from commodity markets to sovereign CDS spreads in emerging and frontier countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 155-165.
    30. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. PASCOAL Fabian Buddy & JUWANA Hikmahanto & KARUNIASA Mahawan & DJOJOKUSUMO Himawan Hariyoga, 2023. "Sovereign Esg Integration: A Bibliometric And Systematic Literature Review," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 18(1), pages 231-260, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rigobon, Roberto, 2018. "Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 150-181.
    2. Wu, Eliza & Erdem, Magdalena & Kalotychou, Elena & Remolona, Eli, 2016. "The anatomy of sovereign risk contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 264-286.
    3. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    4. Kinateder, Harald & Wagner, Niklas, 2017. "Quantitative easing and the pricing of EMU sovereign debt," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-12.
    5. Fong, Tom Pak Wing & Li, Ka-Fai & Fu, John, 2018. "Accounting for sovereign tail risk in emerging economies: The role of global and domestic risk factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 98-110.
    6. Wei Huang & Shu Lin & Jian Yang, 2019. "Institutional quality and sovereign credit default swap spreads," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 686-703, June.
    7. Srivastava, Sasha & Lin, Hai & Premachandra, Inguruwatte M. & Roberts, Helen, 2016. "Global risk spillover and the predictability of sovereign CDS spread: International evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 371-390.
    8. Buncic, Daniel & Moretto, Carlo, 2015. "Forecasting copper prices with dynamic averaging and selection models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-38.
    9. Hai Lin & Daniel Quill & Henk Berkman, 2016. "Information diffusion and the predictability of New Zealand stock market returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 56(3), pages 749-785, September.
    10. Augustin, Patrick & Sokolovski, Valeri & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide, 2022. "How sovereign is sovereign credit risk? Global prices, local quantities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 92-111.
    11. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Plazzi, Alberto, 2020. "Does monetary policy impact international market co-movements?," SAFE Working Paper Series 276, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    12. Elena Kalotychou & Eli Remolona & Eliza Wu, 2014. "What Makes Systemic Risk Systemic? Contagion and Spillovers in the International Sovereign Debt Market," Working Papers 072014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    13. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2014. "Mutual excitation in Eurozone sovereign CDS," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 151-167.
    14. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2016. "Sovereign CDS spread determinants and spill-over effects during financial crisis: A panel VAR approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 62-77.
    15. Huang, Yisu & Ma, Feng & Bouri, Elie & Huang, Dengshi, 2023. "A comprehensive investigation on the predictive power of economic policy uncertainty from non-U.S. countries for U.S. stock market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    16. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Tran, Vuong Thao, 2018. "Can economic policy uncertainty predict stock returns? Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 134-150.
    17. Qian Han & Jufang Liang & Boqiang Wu, 2016. "Cross Economic Determinants of Implied Volatility Smile Dynamics: Three Major European Currency Options," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(5), pages 817-852, November.
    18. Blommestein, Hans & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Qian, Zongxin, 2016. "Regime-dependent determinants of Euro area sovereign CDS spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 10-21.
    19. Broto, Carmen & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, 2015. "Disentangling contagion among sovereign CDS spreads during the European debt crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 165-179.
    20. Ang, Andrew & Longstaff, Francis A., 2013. "Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 493-510.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:4:p:1472-:d:321357. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.