IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i22p9341-d442837.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction of Cost Overrun Risk in Construction Projects

Author

Listed:
  • Edyta Plebankiewicz

    (Division of Management in Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, 31-155 Kraków, Poland)

  • Damian Wieczorek

    (Division of Management in Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, 31-155 Kraków, Poland)

Abstract

The paper proposes a cost overrun risks prediction model, the structure of which is based on the fuzzy inference model of Mamdani. The model consists of numerous inputs and one output (MISO, multi-input-single-output), based on processes running consecutively in three blocks (the fuzzy block, the interference block, and the block of sharpening the representative output value). The input variables of the model include the share of element costs in the building costs ( SE ), predicted changes in the number of works ( WC ), and expected changes in the unit price ( PC ). The developed rule base makes it possible to determine the risk of cost overruns in the following categories: “very low”, “quite low”, “average”, “quite high”, and “very high”. Twenty-seven rules were assumed in the interference block. The operation of the model was illustrated by the example of selected elements of a road object and was validated by checking the correctness of the assumptions made at the design stage of the inference block rule base. It has been proven that with the increase of the share of element costs in the building costs ( SE ), predicted changes in the number of works ( WC ), and expected changes in the unit price ( PC ), the value of the risk exceeding the costs of a given element of the construction project ( R ) increases naturally and smoothly. It was emphasized in the conclusions that the cost overrun risks prediction model is intended for general contractors who subcontract many stages of works to their subcontractors in accordance with the agreed division into work elements.

Suggested Citation

  • Edyta Plebankiewicz & Damian Wieczorek, 2020. "Prediction of Cost Overrun Risk in Construction Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-15, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:22:p:9341-:d:442837
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/22/9341/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/22/9341/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans Lind & Fredrik Brunes, 2015. "Explaining cost overruns in infrastructure projects: a new framework with applications to Sweden," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 554-568, July.
    2. Cantarelli, C.C. & Molin, E.J.E. & van Wee, B. & Flyvbjerg, B., 2012. "Characteristics of cost overruns for Dutch transport infrastructure projects and the importance of the decision to build and project phases," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 49-56.
    3. Edyta Plebankiewicz, 2018. "Model of Predicting Cost Overrun in Construction Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, November.
    4. Michał Juszczyk & Agnieszka Leśniak & Krzysztof Zima, 2018. "ANN Based Approach for Estimation of Construction Costs of Sports Fields," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-11, March.
    5. Odeck, James, 2004. "Cost overruns in road construction--what are their sizes and determinants?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 43-53, January.
    6. Agnieszka Leśniak & Krzysztof Zima, 2018. "Cost Calculation of Construction Projects Including Sustainability Factors Using the Case Based Reasoning (CBR) Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-14, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Edyta Plebankiewicz, 2018. "Model of Predicting Cost Overrun in Construction Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, November.
    2. Zhengxun Jin & Jonghyeob Kim & Chang-taek Hyun & Sangwon Han, 2019. "Development of a Model for Predicting Probabilistic Life-Cycle Cost for the Early Stage of Public-Office Construction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-18, July.
    3. Adriana Gómez-Cabrera & Amalia Sanz-Benlloch & Laura Montalban-Domingo & Jose Luis Ponz-Tienda & Eugenio Pellicer, 2020. "Identification of Factors Affecting the Performance of Rural Road Projects in Colombia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    4. Verweij, Stefan & van Meerkerk, Ingmar & Korthagen, Iris A., 2015. "Reasons for contract changes in implementing Dutch transportation infrastructure projects: An empirical exploration," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 195-202.
    5. Love, Peter E.D. & Zhou, Jingyang & Edwards, David J. & Irani, Zahir & Sing, Chun-Pong, 2017. "Off the rails: The cost performance of infrastructure rail projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 14-29.
    6. Chong, Uven & Hopkins, Omar, 2016. "An international experience on the evolution of road costs during the project life cycle," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 60-66.
    7. Abeysekara, Baudhi & Perera, Piyaruwan & Chhipi Shrestha, Gyan Kumar & Gunaruwan, Lalithasiri & Kumarage, Amal & Sadiq, Rehan & Hewage, Kasun, 2021. "Improving the capital deployment efficiency: An infrastructure investment planning process in transportation project," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    8. Fengchang Jiang & John Awaitey & Haiyan Xie, 2022. "Analysis of Construction Cost and Investment Planning Using Time Series Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Jarosław Górecki & Manuel Díaz-Madroñero, 2020. "Who Risks and Wins?—Simulated Cost Variance in Sustainable Construction Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-31, April.
    10. Dejan Makovšek & Marian Moszoro, 2018. "Risk pricing inefficiency in public–private partnerships," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 298-321, May.
    11. Love, Peter E.D. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D. & Irani, Zahir, 2016. "Cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects: Sowing the seeds for a probabilistic theory of causation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 184-194.
    12. Catalão, Francisco Pinheiro & Cruz, Carlos Oliveira & Sarmento, Joaquim Miranda, 2019. "The determinants of cost deviations and overruns in transport projects, an endogenous models approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 224-238.
    13. Cavalieri, Marina & Cristaudo, Rossana & Guccio, Calogero, 2019. "On the magnitude of cost overruns throughout the project life-cycle: An assessment for the Italian transport infrastructure projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 21-36.
    14. Francisco Pinheiro Catalão & Carlos Oliveira Cruz & Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, 2023. "The entanglement of time and cost deviations in public projects," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(1), pages 241-272, March.
    15. Love, Peter E.D. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D., 2018. "Debunking fake news in a post-truth era: The plausible untruths of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 357-368.
    16. Molinari, Laura & Haezendonck, Elvira & Mabillard, Vincent, 2023. "Cost overruns of Belgian transport infrastructure projects: Analyzing variations over three land transport modes and two project phases," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 167-179.
    17. Love, Peter E.D. & Sing, Michael C.P. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Newton, Sidney, 2019. "The cost performance of transportation projects: The fallacy of the Planning Fallacy account," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-20.
    18. Servranckx, Tom & Vanhoucke, Mario & Aouam, Tarik, 2021. "Practical application of reference class forecasting for cost and time estimations: Identifying the properties of similarity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(3), pages 1161-1179.
    19. Morten Skou Nicolaisen & Patrick A. Driscoll, 2016. "An International Review of Ex-Post Project Evaluation Schemes in the Transport Sector," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 1-33, March.
    20. Miranda Sarmento, J.J., 2014. "Public private partnerships," Other publications TiSEM c7d4c978-234c-4f88-83ed-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:22:p:9341-:d:442837. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.