IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2019i1p226-d302276.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings under Conditions of Exposure to Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Edyta Plebankiewicz

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, 31-155 Krakow, Poland)

  • Wiesław Meszek

    (Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Poznan University of Technology, 60-965 Poznan, Poland)

  • Krzysztof Zima

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, 31-155 Krakow, Poland)

  • Damian Wieczorek

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, 31-155 Krakow, Poland)

Abstract

The paper discusses issues related to life cycle costs in construction. Life cycle cost is a key element in the assessment of environmental sustainability in construction and it provides a tool for the economic evaluation of alternative sustainability options exhibiting different capital, operating costs or resource usage. The authors reviewed selected models of estimating life cycle costs in construction, drew attention to the complex mathematical models developed so far, namely those which take into account only financial risks and those which involve the possibility of the influence of other risk factors and described the main assumptions accompanying the original model for estimating the whole life costs of buildings, including: reasons for choosing theory of possibility, division and parametrization of input data. The aim of this paper is to confirm the validity of the model structure assumptions adopted by the authors by comparing the originally selected fuzzy approach to calculating life cycle costs taking into account the risk with the probabilistic approach, as well as indicating the domain in which the probabilistic approach will complement the fuzzy approach chosen by the authors. The paper presents a comparison analysis of two approaches used in the authors’ model, a fuzzy and a probabilistic approach, recommended by the ISO standard 15686-5:2008. The authors used the Oracle Crystall Ball software in their simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Edyta Plebankiewicz & Wiesław Meszek & Krzysztof Zima & Damian Wieczorek, 2019. "Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings under Conditions of Exposure to Risk," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2019:i:1:p:226-:d:302276
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/1/226/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/1/226/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Milan Mirkovic, 2018. "The Impact of Failure Types in Construction Production Systems on Economic Risk Assessments in the Bidding Phase," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-13, November.
    2. Agnieszka Leśniak & Filip Janowiec, 2019. "Risk Assessment of Additional Works in Railway Construction Investments Using the Bayes Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-15, September.
    3. Marszal, Anna Joanna & Heiselberg, Per, 2011. "Life cycle cost analysis of a multi-storey residential Net Zero Energy Building in Denmark," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5600-5609.
    4. Lu Aye & Nick Bamford & Bill Charters & Jon Robinson, 2000. "Environmentally sustainable development: a life-cycle costing approach for a commercial office building in Melbourne, Australia," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(8), pages 927-934.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beata Nowogońska, 2020. "Consequences of Abandoning Renovation: Case Study—Neglected Industrial Heritage Building," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-14, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agnieszka Bekisz & Magdalena Kowacka & Michał Kruszyński & Dominika Dudziak-Gajowiak & Grzegorz Debita, 2022. "Risk Management Using Network Thinking Methodology on the Example of Rail Transport," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-19, July.
    2. Tian, Wei & Song, Jitian & Li, Zhanyong & de Wilde, Pieter, 2014. "Bootstrap techniques for sensitivity analysis and model selection in building thermal performance analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 320-328.
    3. Ainur Tukhtamisheva & Dinar Adilova & Karolis Banionis & Aurelija Levinskytė & Raimondas Bliūdžius, 2020. "Optimization of the Thermal Insulation Level of Residential Buildings in the Almaty Region of Kazakhstan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-16, September.
    4. Liu, Zhijian & Liu, Yuanwei & He, Bao-Jie & Xu, Wei & Jin, Guangya & Zhang, Xutao, 2019. "Application and suitability analysis of the key technologies in nearly zero energy buildings in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 329-345.
    5. De Boeck, L. & Verbeke, S. & Audenaert, A. & De Mesmaeker, L., 2015. "Improving the energy performance of residential buildings: A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 960-975.
    6. Liu, Zhijian & Zhou, Qingxu & Tian, Zhiyong & He, Bao-jie & Jin, Guangya, 2019. "A comprehensive analysis on definitions, development, and policies of nearly zero energy buildings in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Chaoxun Cai & Shiyu Tian & Yuefeng Shi & Yongjun Chen & Xiaojian Li, 2024. "Influencing Factors Analysis in Railway Engineering Technological Innovation under Complex and Difficult Areas: A System Dynamics Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-20, June.
    8. Akhtari, Mohammad Reza & Shayegh, Iman & Karimi, Nader, 2020. "Techno-economic assessment and optimization of a hybrid renewable earth - air heat exchanger coupled with electric boiler, hydrogen, wind and PV configurations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 839-851.
    9. Diakaki, Christina & Grigoroudis, Evangelos & Kolokotsa, Dionyssia, 2013. "Performance study of a multi-objective mathematical programming modelling approach for energy decision-making in buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 534-542.
    10. Ristimäki, Miro & Säynäjoki, Antti & Heinonen, Jukka & Junnila, Seppo, 2013. "Combining life cycle costing and life cycle assessment for an analysis of a new residential district energy system design," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 168-179.
    11. Huihua Chen & Hujun Li & Yige Wang & Baoquan Cheng, 2020. "A Comprehensive Assessment Approach for Water-Soil Environmental Risk during Railway Construction in Ecological Fragile Region Based on AHP and MEA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-17, September.
    12. Mohammad Masfiqul Alam Bhuiyan & Ahmed Hammad, 2023. "A Hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision Support System for Selecting the Most Sustainable Structural Material for a Multistory Building Construction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-36, February.
    13. Li, Hangxin & Wang, Shengwei, 2020. "Coordinated robust optimal design of building envelope and energy systems for zero/low energy buildings considering uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    14. Gilani, Hooman Azad & Hoseinzadeh, Siamak & Karimi, Hirou & Karimi, Ako & Hassanzadeh, Amir & Garcia, Davide Astiaso, 2021. "Performance analysis of integrated solar heat pump VRF system for the low energy building in Mediterranean island," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1006-1019.
    15. Manrique Delgado, Benjamin & Cao, Sunliang & Hasan, Ala & Sirén, Kai, 2017. "Thermoeconomic analysis of heat and electricity prosumers in residential zero-energy buildings in Finland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 544-559.
    16. Skiba, Marta & Mrówczyńska, Maria & Sztubecka, Małgorzata & Bazan-Krzywoszańska, Anna & Kazak, Jan K. & Leśniak, Agnieszka & Janowiec, Filip, 2021. "Probability estimation of the city’s energy efficiency improvement as a result of using the phase change materials in heating networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    17. Poppi, Stefano & Sommerfeldt, Nelson & Bales, Chris & Madani, Hatef & Lundqvist, Per, 2018. "Techno-economic review of solar heat pump systems for residential heating applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 22-32.
    18. Li, Y. & Arulnathan, V. & Heidari, M.D. & Pelletier, N., 2022. "Design considerations for net zero energy buildings for intensive, confined poultry production: A review of current insights, knowledge gaps, and future directions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    19. Yinan Li & Neng Zhu & Beibei Qin, 2019. "What Affects the Progress and Transformation of New Residential Building Energy Efficiency Promotion in China: Stakeholders’ Perceptions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-41, March.
    20. Marszal, Anna Joanna & Heiselberg, Per & Lund Jensen, Rasmus & Nørgaard, Jesper, 2012. "On-site or off-site renewable energy supply options? Life cycle cost analysis of a Net Zero Energy Building in Denmark," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 154-165.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2019:i:1:p:226-:d:302276. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.