IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i9p2588-d228436.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Warming and Dimming: Interactive Impacts on Potential Summer Maize Yield in North China Plain

Author

Listed:
  • Qi Hu

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    Inner Mongolia Ecological and Agricultural Meteorology Center, Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010000, China)

  • Xueqing Ma

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    Inner Mongolia Ecological and Agricultural Meteorology Center, Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010000, China)

  • Huayun He

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    Inner Mongolia Ecological and Agricultural Meteorology Center, Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010000, China)

  • Feifei Pan

    (Department of Geography, University of North Texas, Denton, TX 76203, USA)

  • Qijin He

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    Inner Mongolia Ecological and Agricultural Meteorology Center, Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010000, China)

  • Binxiang Huang

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    Inner Mongolia Ecological and Agricultural Meteorology Center, Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010000, China)

  • Xuebiao Pan

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    Inner Mongolia Ecological and Agricultural Meteorology Center, Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010000, China)

Abstract

Global warming and dimming/brightening have significant implications for crop systems and exhibit regional variations. It is important to clarify the changes in regional thermal and solar radiation resources and estimate the impacts on potential crop production spatially and temporally. Based on daily observation data during 1961–2015 in the North China Plain (NCP), the impacts of climate change associated with climate warming and global dimming/brightening on potential light–temperature productivity ( PTP ) of summer maize were assessed in this study. Results show that the NCP experienced a continuous warming and dimming trend in maize growing season during the past 55 years, and both ATT10 and solar radiation had an abrupt change in the mid-1990s. The period of 2000–2015 was warmer and dimmer than any other previous decade. Assuming the maize growing season remains unchanged, climate warming would increase PTP of summer maize by 4.6% over the period of 1961–2015, which mainly occurred in the start grain filling–maturity stage. On the other hand, as negative contribution value of solar radiation to the PTP was found in each stage, dimming would offset the increase of PTP due to warming climate, and lead to a 15.6% reduction in PTP in the past 55 years. This study reveals that the changes in thermal and solar radiation have reduced the PTP of summer maize in the NCP. However, the actual maize yield could benefit more from climate warming because solar radiation is not a limiting factor for the current low production level.

Suggested Citation

  • Qi Hu & Xueqing Ma & Huayun He & Feifei Pan & Qijin He & Binxiang Huang & Xuebiao Pan, 2019. "Warming and Dimming: Interactive Impacts on Potential Summer Maize Yield in North China Plain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-15, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:9:p:2588-:d:228436
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/9/2588/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/9/2588/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sun, Hongyong & Shen, Yanjun & Yu, Qiang & Flerchinger, Gerald N. & Zhang, Yongqiang & Liu, Changming & Zhang, Xiying, 2010. "Effect of precipitation change on water balance and WUE of the winter wheat-summer maize rotation in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(8), pages 1139-1145, August.
    2. Qingfeng Meng & Peng Hou & David Lobell & Hongfei Wang & Zhenling Cui & Fusuo Zhang & Xinping Chen, 2014. "The benefits of recent warming for maize production in high latitude China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 341-349, January.
    3. Wang, Xiaolong & Chen, Yuanquan & Sui, Peng & Gao, Wangsheng & Qin, Feng & Zhang, Jiansheng & Wu, Xia, 2014. "Emergy analysis of grain production systems on large-scale farms in the North China Plain based on LCA," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 66-78.
    4. Goyal, R. K., 2004. "Sensitivity of evapotranspiration to global warming: a case study of arid zone of Rajasthan (India)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 1-11, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dongrui Han & Hongyan Cai & Xiaohuan Yang & Xinliang Xu, 2020. "Multi-Source Data Modeling of the Spatial Distribution of Winter Wheat Yield in China from 2000 to 2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Xiaoxia Guo & Yunshan Yang & Huifang Liu & Guangzhou Liu & Wanmao Liu & Yonghong Wang & Rulang Zhao & Bo Ming & Ruizhi Xie & Keru Wang & Shaokun Li & Peng Hou, 2022. "Effects of Solar Radiation on Dry Matter Distribution and Root Morphology of High Yielding Maize Cultivars," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qu, Ziren & Luo, Ning & Guo, Jiameng & Xu, Jie & Wang, Pu & Meng, Qingfeng, 2024. "Enhancing sustainability in the new variety-based low emergy system for maize production by nitrogen optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    2. Wang, Xingya & Tan, Weiming & Zhou, Shunli & Xu, Yang & Cui, Tao & Gao, Hong & Chen, Mingli & Dong, Xuehui & Sun, Hongyong & Yang, Jinzhong & Wu, Yongcheng & Kong, Fanlei & Zhan, Ming & Pan, Jinbao & , 2021. "Converting maize production with low emergy cost and high economic return for sustainable development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Phogat, V. & Cox, J.W. & Šimůnek, J., 2018. "Identifying the future water and salinity risks to irrigated viticulture in the Murray-Darling Basin, South Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 107-117.
    4. Eyni-Nargeseh, Hamed & Asgharipour, Mohammad Reza & Rahimi-Moghaddam, Sajjad & Gilani, Abdolali & Damghani, Abdolmajid Mahdavi & Azizi, Khosro, 2023. "Which rice farming system is more environmentally friendly in Khuzestan province, Iran? A study based on emergy analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 481(C).
    5. Yan, Nana & Wu, Bingfang & Perry, Chris & Zeng, Hongwei, 2015. "Assessing potential water savings in agriculture on the Hai Basin plain, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 11-19.
    6. Shirazi, Sana Zeeshan & Mei, Xurong & Liu, Buchun & Liu, Yuan, 2022. "Estimating potential yield and change in water budget for wheat and maize across Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in the future," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    7. He, Gang & Wang, Zhaohui & Li, Fucui & Dai, Jian & Li, Qiang & Xue, Cheng & Cao, Hanbing & Wang, Sen & Malhi, Sukhdev S., 2016. "Soil water storage and winter wheat productivity affected by soil surface management and precipitation in dryland of the Loess Plateau, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1-9.
    8. Tong, Ling & Kang, Shaozhong & Zhang, Lu, 2007. "Temporal and spatial variations of evapotranspiration for spring wheat in the Shiyang river basin in northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 241-250, February.
    9. Michaela ŠKEŘÍKOVÁ & Václav BRANT & Milan KROULÍK & Jan PIVEC & Petr ZÁBRANSKÝ & Josef HAKL & Michael HOFBAUER, 2018. "Water demands and biomass production of sorghum and maize plants in areas with insufficient precipitation in Central Europe," Plant, Soil and Environment, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 64(8), pages 367-378.
    10. Li, Zhibin & Feng, Bianbian & Wang, Wei & Yang, Xi & Wu, Pute & Zhuo, La, 2022. "Spatial and temporal sensitivity of water footprint assessment in crop production to modelling inputs and parameters," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    11. Li, Quanqi & Bian, Chengyue & Liu, Xinhui & Ma, Changjian & Liu, Quanru, 2015. "Winter wheat grain yield and water use efficiency in wide-precision planting pattern under deficit irrigation in North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 71-76.
    12. Wang, Donglin & Feng, Hao & Li, Yi & Zhang, Tibin & Dyck, Miles & Wu, Feng, 2019. "Energy input-output, water use efficiency and economics of winter wheat under gravel mulching in Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 354-366.
    13. Liu, Bingxia & Wang, Shiqin & Kong, Xiaole & Liu, Xiaojing & Sun, Hongyong, 2019. "Modeling and assessing feasibility of long-term brackish water irrigation in vertically homogeneous and heterogeneous cultivated lowland in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 98-110.
    14. Yang, Xiaolin & Gao, Wangsheng & Shi, Quanhong & Chen, Fu & Chu, Qingquan, 2013. "Impact of climate change on the water requirement of summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai farming region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 20-27.
    15. Garcia-Prats, A. & Carricondo-Anton, J.M. & Jiménez-Bello, M.A. & Manzano Juárez, J. & López-Pérez, E. & Pulido-Velazquez, M., 2023. "Dynamic procedure for daily PM56 ETo mapping conducive to site-specific irrigation recommendations in areas covered by agricultural weather networks," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    16. Wang, Xiaolong & Li, Zhejin & Long, Pan & Yan, Lingling & Gao, Wangsheng & Chen, Yuanquan & Sui, Peng, 2017. "Sustainability evaluation of recycling in agricultural systems by emergy accounting," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 117(PB), pages 114-124.
    17. Serdar Göncü & Erdem Albek, 2010. "Modeling Climate Change Effects on Streams and Reservoirs with HSPF," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(4), pages 707-726, March.
    18. Luo, Jianmei & Shen, Yanjun & Qi, Yongqing & Zhang, Yucui & Xiao, Dengpan, 2018. "Evaluating water conservation effects due to cropping system optimization on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei plain, China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 32-41.
    19. Zhang, Lei & Traore, Seydou & Cui, Yuanlai & Luo, Yufeng & Zhu, Ge & Liu, Bo & Fipps, Guy & Karthikeyan, R. & Singh, Vijay, 2019. "Assessment of spatiotemporal variability of reference evapotranspiration and controlling climate factors over decades in China using geospatial techniques," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 499-511.
    20. Jie Zhao & Zongxue Xu & Vijay P. Singh & Depeng Zuo & Mo Li, 2016. "Sensitivity of Potential Evapotranspiration to Climate and Vegetation in a Water-Limited Basin at the Northern Edge of Tibetan Plateau," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4667-4680, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:9:p:2588-:d:228436. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.