IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i20p5857-d279029.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Air Quality Trend of PM10. Statistical Models for Assessing the Air Quality Impact of Environmental Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Ana Belen Vicente

    (Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Universitat Jaume I, Av. Vicente Sos Baynat s/n, 12071 Castelló de la Plana, Spain)

  • Pablo Juan

    (Department of Mathematics, Statistics Area, Universitat Jaume I, Av. Vicente Sos Baynat s/n, 12071 Castelló de la Plana, Spain
    IMAC, Universitat Jaume I, Av. Vicente Sos Baynat s/n, 12071 Castelló de la Plana, Spain)

  • Sergi Meseguer

    (Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Universitat Jaume I, Av. Vicente Sos Baynat s/n, 12071 Castelló de la Plana, Spain)

  • Laura Serra

    (CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), 28029 Madrid, Spain
    Research Group on Statistics, Econometrics and Health (GRECS), University of Girona, 17004 Girona, Spain)

  • Sergio Trilles

    (Institute of New Imaging Technologies (INIT), Universitat Jaume I, Av. Vicente Sos Baynat s/n, 12071 Castelló de la Plana, Spain)

Abstract

A statistical modelling of PM10 concentration (2006–2015) is applied to understand the behaviour, to know the influence of the variables to exposure risk, to treat the missing data to evaluate air quality, and to estimate data for those sites where they are not available. The study area, Castellón region (Spain), is a strategic area in the framework of EU pollution control. A decrease of PM10 is observed for industrial and urban stations. In the case of rural stations, the levels remain constant throughout the study period. The contribution of anthropogenic sources has been estimated through the PM10 background of the study area. The behaviour of PM10 annual trend is tri-modal for industrial and urban stations and bi-modal in the case of rural stations. The EU Normative suggests that 90% of the data per year are necessary to control air quality. Thus, interpolation statistical methods are presented to fill missing data: Linear Interpolation, Exponential Interpolation, and Kalman Smoothing. This study also focuses on testing the goodness of these methods in order to find the ones that better approach the gaps. After analyzing graphically and using the RMSE the last method is confirmed to be the best option.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Belen Vicente & Pablo Juan & Sergi Meseguer & Laura Serra & Sergio Trilles, 2019. "Air Quality Trend of PM10. Statistical Models for Assessing the Air Quality Impact of Environmental Policies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-18, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:20:p:5857-:d:279029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/20/5857/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/20/5857/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Monika Załuska & Katarzyna Gładyszewska-Fiedoruk, 2020. "Regression Model of PM2.5 Concentration in a Single-Family House," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-15, July.
    2. Sergio Trilles & Ana Belen Vicente & Pablo Juan & Francisco Ramos & Sergi Meseguer & Laura Serra, 2019. "Reliability Validation of a Low-Cost Particulate Matter IoT Sensor in Indoor and Outdoor Environments Using a Reference Sampler," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-14, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2020. "Forecasting realized oil-price volatility: The role of financial stress and asymmetric loss," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    2. Rob Hyndman & Heather Booth & Farah Yasmeen, 2013. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting: The Product-Ratio Method With Functional Time Series Models," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 261-283, February.
    3. Nahapetyan Yervand, 2019. "The benefits of the Velvet Revolution in Armenia: Estimation of the short-term economic gains using deep neural networks," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 6(53), pages 286-303, January.
    4. Barrow, Devon & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2018. "The impact of special days in call arrivals forecasting: A neural network approach to modelling special days," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(3), pages 967-977.
    5. Dombi, József & Jónás, Tamás & Tóth, Zsuzsanna Eszter, 2018. "Modeling and long-term forecasting demand in spare parts logistics businesses," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 1-17.
    6. Amita Gajewar & Gagan Bansal, 2016. "Revenue Forecasting for Enterprise Products," Papers 1701.06624, arXiv.org.
    7. Tao XIONG & Chongguang LI & Yukun BAO, 2017. "An improved EEMD-based hybrid approach for the short-term forecasting of hog price in China," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 63(3), pages 136-148.
    8. Pieter van der Spek & Chris Verhoef, 2014. "Balancing Time‐to‐Market and Quality in Embedded Systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(2), pages 166-192, June.
    9. Hewamalage, Hansika & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bandara, Kasun, 2021. "Recurrent Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting: Current status and future directions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 388-427.
    10. Hyndman, Rob J. & Ahmed, Roman A. & Athanasopoulos, George & Shang, Han Lin, 2011. "Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(9), pages 2579-2589, September.
    11. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Petropoulos, Fotios & Trapero, Juan R., 2014. "Improving forecasting by estimating time series structural components across multiple frequencies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 291-302.
    12. Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Sirimal Silva & Rangan Gupta & Mawuli K. Segnon, 2015. "Forecasting the price of gold," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(39), pages 4141-4152, August.
    13. Thomas Horvath & Peter Huber & Ulrike Huemer & Helmut Mahringer & Philipp Piribauer & Mark Sommer & Stefan Weingärtner, 2022. "Mittelfristige Beschäftigungsprognose für Österreich und die Bundesländer. Berufliche und sektorale Veränderungen 2021 bis 2028," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 70720, March.
    14. Sasikiran Kandula & Jeffrey Shaman, 2019. "Reappraising the utility of Google Flu Trends," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-16, August.
    15. de Silva, Ashton J, 2010. "Forecasting Australian Macroeconomic variables, evaluating innovations state space approaches," MPRA Paper 27411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kyungsub Lee, 2022. "Application of Hawkes volatility in the observation of filtered high-frequency price process in tick structures," Papers 2207.05939, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    17. Pawlikowski, Maciej & Chorowska, Agata, 2020. "Weighted ensemble of statistical models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 93-97.
    18. Tendai Makoni & Delson Chikobvu, 2023. "Assessing and Forecasting the Long-Term Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Manufacturing Sales in South Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, May.
    19. Fijorek Kamil & Leśniewska Agnieszka, 2012. "Statistical Forecasting of the Indicators of Polish Airport’s Operations," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 11(1), pages 7-7, January.
    20. Alysha M De Livera, 2010. "Automatic forecasting with a modified exponential smoothing state space framework," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    PM10; trend; interpolation methods; Kalman Smoothing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:20:p:5857-:d:279029. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.