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The Impact of Slumping Oil Price on the Situation of Tanker Shipping along the Maritime Silk Road

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  • Naixia Mou

    (College of Geomatics, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China
    State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Yanxin Xie

    (College of Geomatics, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China)

  • Tengfei Yang

    (Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China)

  • Hengcai Zhang

    (State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Yoo Ri Kim

    (School of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7UU, UK)

Abstract

Nearly 70% of the world’s maritime crude oil transportation relies on the Maritime Silk Road (MSR). In order to deeply explore the impact of slumping oil price on the shipping situation of tanker along the MSR, this paper establishes the relationship between monthly ship and oil price through Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. Distributions of cargo flow before and after the oil price slumped are compared to explore the changing law of tanker shipping situation. The study finds: (1) The correlation between the cargo flow situation of the tanker seaborne export and oil price, where the export cargo flow correlation is stronger than that of the import cargo flow. (2) The MSR tanker shipping situation is lagging (3 months) behind the impact of oil price. The lag effect in Europe, North Asia and East Asia is strong while that in Southeast Asia and South Asia is weak. (3) After the oil price slumped, the tanker shipping cargo flow increased less during the crude oil export stage, and the increase in the crude oil shipping trade after the transfer period was larger. The research results can provide a scientific basis for improving the decision-making ability of the crude oil shipping market and formulating maritime operations management measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Naixia Mou & Yanxin Xie & Tengfei Yang & Hengcai Zhang & Yoo Ri Kim, 2019. "The Impact of Slumping Oil Price on the Situation of Tanker Shipping along the Maritime Silk Road," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-16, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:17:p:4796-:d:263503
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