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Multifractal cross-correlations between crude oil and tanker freight rate

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  • Chen, Feier
  • Miao, Yuqi
  • Tian, Kang
  • Ding, Xiaoxu
  • Li, Tingyi

Abstract

Analysis of crude oil price and tanker freight rate volatility attract more attention as the mechanism is not only the basis of industrialization but also a vital role in economics, especially after the year 2008 when financial crisis notably blew the maritime transportation. In this paper, we studied the cross-correlations between the West Texas International crude oil (WTI) and Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) employing the Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA). Empirical results show that the degree of short-term cross-correlation is higher than that in the long term and that the strength of multifractality after financial crisis is larger than that before. Moreover, the components of multifractal spectrum are quantified with the finite-size effect taken into consideration and an improved method in terms of constructing the surrogated time series provided. Numerical results show that the multifractality is generated mostly from the nonlinear and the fat-tailed probability distribution (PDF) part. Also, it is apparent that the PDF part changes a lot after the financial crisis. The research is contributory to risk management by providing various instructions for participants in shipping markets. Our main contribution is that we investigated both the multifractal features and the origin of multifractality and provided confirming evidence of multifractality through numerical results while applying quantitative analysis based on MF-DCCA; furthermore, the research is contributory to risk management since it provides instructions in both economic market and stock market simultaneously. However, constructing the surrogated series in order to obtain consistence seems less convincing which requires further discussion and attempts.

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  • Chen, Feier & Miao, Yuqi & Tian, Kang & Ding, Xiaoxu & Li, Tingyi, 2017. "Multifractal cross-correlations between crude oil and tanker freight rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 474(C), pages 344-354.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:474:y:2017:i:c:p:344-354
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.01.069
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    2. Bai, Xiwen, 2021. "Tanker freight rates and economic policy uncertainty: A wavelet-based copula approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    3. Nascimento Filho, A.S. & Pereira, E.J.A.L. & Ferreira, Paulo & Murari, T.B. & Moret, M.A., 2018. "Cross-correlation analysis on Brazilian gasoline retail market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 550-557.
    4. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kambouroudis, Dimos S. & Tsakou, Katerina & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2018. "Volatility forecasting across tanker freight rates: The role of oil price shocks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 376-391.
    5. Shi, Wenming & Gong, Yuting & Yin, Jingbo & Nguyen, Son & Liu, Qian, 2022. "Determinants of dynamic dependence between the crude oil and tanker freight markets: A mixed-frequency data sampling copula model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PB).
    6. Li, Xing, 2021. "On the multifractal analysis of air quality index time series before and during COVID-19 partial lockdown: A case study of Shanghai, China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    7. Bianca Borca & Lisa-Maria Putz & Florian Hofbauer, 2021. "Crises and Their Effects on Freight Transport Modes: A Literature Review and Research Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, May.
    8. Zhang, Yi, 2018. "Investigating dependencies among oil price and tanker market variables by copula-based multivariate models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 435-446.
    9. Li, Tingyi & Xue, Leyang & Chen, Yu & Chen, Feier & Miao, Yuqi & Shao, Xinzeng & Zhang, Chenyi, 2018. "Insights from multifractality analysis of tanker freight market volatility with common external factor of crude oil price," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 374-384.
    10. Fonseca, Carla L.G. & de Resende, Charlene C. & Fernandes, Danilo H.C. & Cardoso, Rodrigo T.N. & de Magalhães, A.R. Bosco, 2021. "Is the choice of the candlestick dimension relevant in econophysics?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).
    11. Naixia Mou & Yanxin Xie & Tengfei Yang & Hengcai Zhang & Yoo Ri Kim, 2019. "The Impact of Slumping Oil Price on the Situation of Tanker Shipping along the Maritime Silk Road," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-16, September.

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