IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v10y2018i9p3255-d169312.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Do Verified Emissions Announcements Affect the Comoves between Trading Behaviors and Carbon Prices? Evidence from EU ETS

Author

Listed:
  • Jianfeng Guo

    (Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
    School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Bin Su

    (Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119620, Singapore)

  • Guang Yang

    (School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China)

  • Lianyong Feng

    (School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China)

  • Yinpeng Liu

    (Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
    School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Fu Gu

    (Department of Industrial and System Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China
    National Institute of Innovation Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China)

Abstract

Verified emissions announcements are the most influential events in the European Union emissions trading scheme (EU ETS); they reveal demand information and have a significant impact on the carbon market. The extant literature tends to focus on examining the impacts of these verification events on the prices of carbon allowances, while scholars barely discuss how trading behaviors react to the announcements. Moreover, most of the studies are carried out from a macroeconomic perspective. This paper fills this gap by analyzing the impacts of the verified emissions announcements on the comoves of trading behaviors and carbon prices in Phase I (2005–2007) and Phase II (2008–2012). Specifically, we construct GARCH models to investigate the events’ heterogeneous influences in different periods, i.e., the complete periods, the announcement periods, the pre- and post-announcement periods. We observe that the verified emissions announcements boost the volume of compliance trading, particularly in Phase I. Furthermore, we show that the over-allocation of carbon allowances can be even more influential in disturbing the comoves than the verification events. Our microeconomic findings confirm the maturity of EU ETS in Phase II, exhibiting good agreement with the extant macroeconomic literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianfeng Guo & Bin Su & Guang Yang & Lianyong Feng & Yinpeng Liu & Fu Gu, 2018. "How Do Verified Emissions Announcements Affect the Comoves between Trading Behaviors and Carbon Prices? Evidence from EU ETS," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-17, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:9:p:3255-:d:169312
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/9/3255/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/9/3255/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Perthuis, Christian & Trotignon, Raphael, 2014. "Governance of CO2 markets: Lessons from the EU ETS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 100-106.
    2. Fan, Ying & Xu, Jin-Hua, 2011. "What has driven oil prices since 2000? A structural change perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1082-1094.
    3. Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2006. "Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 461-504.
    4. Hintermann, Beat, 2010. "Allowance price drivers in the first phase of the EU ETS," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-56, January.
    5. Ji, Qiang & Guo, Jian-Feng, 2015. "Oil price volatility and oil-related events: An Internet concern study perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 256-264.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4222 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Creti, Anna & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Carbon price drivers: Phase I versus Phase II equilibrium?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 327-334.
    8. Su, Bin & Ang, B.W., 2017. "Multiplicative structural decomposition analysis of aggregate embodied energy and emission intensities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 137-147.
    9. Ang, B.W. & Su, Bin, 2016. "Carbon emission intensity in electricity production: A global analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 56-63.
    10. Jia, Jun-Jun & Xu, Jin-Hua & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of verified emissions announcements on the European Union emissions trading scheme: A bilaterally modified dummy variable modelling analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 567-577.
    11. Eugenia Sanin, María & Violante, Francesco & Mansanet-Bataller, María, 2015. "Understanding volatility dynamics in the EU-ETS market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 321-331.
    12. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 33-55, March.
    13. Bangzhu Zhu & Julien Chevallier & Shujiao Ma & Yiming Wei, 2015. "Examining the structural changes of European carbon futures price 2005-2012," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 335-342, March.
    14. Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
    15. Fell, Harrison & Maniloff, Peter, 2018. "Leakage in regional environmental policy: The case of the regional greenhouse gas initiative," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-23.
    16. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2016. "Risk spillovers across the energy and carbon markets and hedging strategies for carbon risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 159-172.
    17. Barry Anderson & Corrado Di Maria, 2011. "Abatement and Allocation in the Pilot Phase of the EU ETS," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(1), pages 83-103, January.
    18. Fan, Ying & Jia, Jun-Jun & Wang, Xin & Xu, Jin-Hua, 2017. "What policy adjustments in the EU ETS truly affected the carbon prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 145-164.
    19. Fan Dai & Ling Xiong & Ding Ma, 2017. "How to Set the Allowance Benchmarking for Cement Industry in China’s Carbon Market: Marginal Analysis and the Case of the Hubei Emission Trading Pilot," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, February.
    20. Jie Zhang & Lu Zhang, 2016. "Impacts on CO 2 Emission Allowance Prices in China: A Quantile Regression Analysis of the Shanghai Emission Trading Scheme," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-12, November.
    21. Aleksandar Zaklan, 2013. "Why Do Emitters Trade Carbon Permits?: Firm-Level Evidence from the European Emission Trading Scheme," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1275, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    22. Michael Grubb & Karsten Neuhoff, 2006. "Allocation and competitiveness in the EU emissions trading scheme: policy overview," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 7-30, January.
    23. Frank Convery, 2009. "Origins and Development of the EU ETS," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 391-412, July.
    24. Zhi-Fu Mi & Yi-Ming Wei & Bao-Jun Tang & Rong-Gang Cong & Hao Yu & Hong Cao & Dabo Guan, 2017. "Risk assessment of oil price from static and dynamic modelling approaches," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(9), pages 929-939, February.
    25. Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian & Mercier, Ludovic, 2009. "Risk aversion and institutional information disclosure on the European carbon market: A case-study of the 2006 compliance event," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 15-28, January.
    26. Efimova, Olga & Serletis, Apostolos, 2014. "Energy markets volatility modelling using GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 264-273.
    27. Zhang, Zhonghua & Zhao, Yuhuan & Su, Bin & Zhang, Yongfeng & Wang, Song & Liu, Ya & Li, Hao, 2017. "Embodied carbon in China’s foreign trade: An online SCI-E and SSCI based literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 492-510.
    28. Atle C. Christiansen & J�rgen Wettestad, 2003. "The EU as a frontrunner on greenhouse gas emissions trading: how did it happen and will the EU succeed?," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 3-18, March.
    29. Yingying Zeng & Stefan E. Weishaar & Hans H. B. Vedder, 2018. "Electricity regulation in the Chinese national emissions trading scheme (ETS): lessons for carbon leakage and linkage with the EU ETS," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 1246-1259, November.
    30. Brouwers, Roel & Schoubben, Frederiek & Van Hulle, Cynthia & Van Uytbergen, Steve, 2016. "The initial impact of EU ETS verification events on stock prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 138-149.
    31. Baochen Yang & Chuanze Liu & Zehao Gou & Jiacheng Man & Yunpeng Su, 2018. "How Will Policies of China’s CO 2 ETS Affect its Carbon Price: Evidence from Chinese Pilot Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-26, February.
    32. Guo, Jian-Feng & Ji, Qiang, 2013. "How does market concern derived from the Internet affect oil prices?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1536-1543.
    33. Yinpeng Zhang & Zhixin Liu & Xueying Yu, 2017. "The Diversification Benefits of Including Carbon Assets in Financial Portfolios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-13, March.
    34. Unknown, 2016. "Energy for Sustainable Development," Conference Proceedings 253270, Guru Arjan Dev Institute of Development Studies (IDSAsr).
    35. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13539 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. J. Doyne Farmer & Austin Gerig & Fabrizio Lillo & Szabolcs Mike, 2006. "Market efficiency and the long-memory of supply and demand: is price impact variable and permanent or fixed and temporary?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 107-112.
    37. Cameron Hepburn, 2017. "Make carbon pricing a priority," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(6), pages 389-390, June.
    38. Roselyne Joyeux & George Milunovich, 2010. "Testing market efficiency in the EU carbon futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 803-809.
    39. Eva Benz & Andreas Löschel & Bodo Sturm, 2010. "Auctioning of CO 2 emission allowances in Phase 3 of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 705-718, November.
    40. Michael Grubb & Christian Azar & U. Martin Persson, 2005. "Allowance allocation in the European emissions trading system: a commentary," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 127-136, January.
    41. A. C. Christiansen & A. Arvanitakis & K. Tangen & H. Hasselknippe, 2005. "Price determinants in the EU emissions trading scheme," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 15-30, January.
    42. Daskalakis, George, 2018. "Temporal restrictions on emissions trading and the implications for the carbon futures market: Lessons from the EU emissions trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 88-91.
    43. Ying Fan & Yin-Peng Liu & Jian-Feng Guo, 2016. "How to explain carbon price using market micro-behaviour?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(51), pages 4992-5007, November.
    44. Regina A. Betz & Tobias S. Schmidt, 2016. "Transfer patterns in Phase I of the EU Emissions Trading System: a first reality check based on cluster analysis," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 474-495, May.
    45. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4221 is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Inha Oh & Yeongjun Yeo & Jeong-Dong Lee, 2015. "Efficiency versus Equality: Comparing Design Options for Indirect Emissions Accounting in the Korean Emissions Trading Scheme," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-21, November.
    47. Daskalakis, George, 2013. "On the efficiency of the European carbon market: New evidence from Phase II," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 369-375.
    48. Zhang, Ming & Su, Bin, 2016. "Assessing China's rural household energy sustainable development using improved grouped principal component method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 509-514.
    49. Zhi-Fu Mi & Yue-Jun Zhang, 2011. "Estimating the 'value at risk' of EUA futures prices based on the extreme value theory," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 35(2/3/4), pages 145-157.
    50. Passey, Robert & MacGill, Iain & Outhred, Hugh, 2008. "The governance challenge for implementing effective market-based climate policies: A case study of The New South Wales Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2999-3008, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Kai-Hua & Liu, Lu & Zhong, Yifan & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and carbon emission trading market: A China's perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. Dai, Peng-Fei & Xiong, Xiong & Duc Huynh, Toan Luu & Wang, Jiqiang, 2022. "The impact of economic policy uncertainties on the volatility of European carbon market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    3. Xinghua Fan & Ying Zhang & Jiuli Yin, 2018. "Evolutionary Analysis of a Three-Dimensional Carbon Price Dynamic System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Yue Xu & Dayu Zhai, 2022. "Impact of Changes in Membership on Prices of a Unified Carbon Market: Case Study of the European Union Emissions Trading System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, October.
    5. Su, Chi Wei & Wei, Shenkai & Wang, Yan & Tao, Ran, 2024. "How does climate policy uncertainty affect the carbon market?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. Gu, Fu & Wang, Jiqiang & Guo, Jianfeng & Fan, Ying, 2020. "How the supply and demand of steam coal affect the investment in clean energy industry? Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Gu, Fu & Wang, Jiqiang & Guo, Jianfeng & Fan, Ying, 2020. "Dynamic linkages between international oil price, plastic stock index and recycle plastic markets in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 167-179.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Friedrich, Marina & Mauer, Eva-Maria & Pahle, Michael & Tietjen, Oliver, 2020. "From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS," EconStor Preprints 196150, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    2. Balietti, Anca Claudia, 2016. "Trader types and volatility of emission allowance prices. Evidence from EU ETS Phase I," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 607-620.
    3. Cretí, Anna & Joëts, Marc, 2017. "Multiple bubbles in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 119-130.
    4. Remes, Piia, 2013. "Putting a Price on Carbon – Econometric Essays on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and its Impacts," Research Reports 62, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Aatola, Piia, 2013. "Putting a Price on Carbon – Econometric Essays on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and its Impacts," Research Reports P62, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Medina, Vicente & Pardo, Ángel & Pascual, Roberto, 2014. "The timeline of trading frictions in the European carbon market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 378-394.
    7. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Kim, Jihun, 2022. "The relationship between carbon-intensive fuel and renewable energy stock prices under the emissions trading system," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    8. Karpf, Andreas & Mandel, Antoine & Battiston, Stefano, 2018. "Price and network dynamics in the European carbon market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 103-122.
    9. Jia, Jun-Jun & Xu, Jin-Hua & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of verified emissions announcements on the European Union emissions trading scheme: A bilaterally modified dummy variable modelling analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 567-577.
    10. Fang, Sheng & Lu, Xinsheng & Li, Jianfeng & Qu, Ling, 2018. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis of carbon emission allowance and stock returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 551-566.
    11. Yue Xu & Dayu Zhai, 2022. "Impact of Changes in Membership on Prices of a Unified Carbon Market: Case Study of the European Union Emissions Trading System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, October.
    12. Su, Chi Wei & Wei, Shenkai & Wang, Yan & Tao, Ran, 2024. "How does climate policy uncertainty affect the carbon market?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    13. Schleich, Joachim & Lehmann, Sascha & Cludius, Johanna & Abrell, Jan & Betz, Regina Annette & Pinkse, Jonatan, 2020. "Active or passive? Companies' use of the EU ETS," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S07/2020, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    14. Hintermann, Beat & Peterson, Sonja & Rickels, Wilfried, 2014. "Price and market behavior in Phase II of the EU ETS," Kiel Working Papers 1962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Tan, Xueping & Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wang, Xinyu, 2020. "How connected is the carbon market to energy and financial markets? A systematic analysis of spillovers and dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    16. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
    17. Yan, Kai & Zhang, Wei & Shen, Dehua, 2020. "Stylized facts of the carbon emission market in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 555(C).
    18. Duan, Kun & Ren, Xiaohang & Shi, Yukun & Mishra, Tapas & Yan, Cheng, 2021. "The marginal impacts of energy prices on carbon price variations: Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    19. Chune Young Chung & Minkyu Jeong & Jason Young, 2018. "The Price Determinants of the EU Allowance in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-29, November.
    20. Zhu, Bangzhu & Ye, Shunxin & Han, Dong & Wang, Ping & He, Kaijian & Wei, Yi-Ming & Xie, Rui, 2019. "A multiscale analysis for carbon price drivers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 202-216.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:9:p:3255-:d:169312. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.