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Examining the structural changes of European carbon futures price 2005-2012

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Listed:
  • Bangzhu Zhu
  • Julien Chevallier
  • Shujiao Ma
  • Yiming Wei

Abstract

The aim of this research was to examine the structural changes of European carbon futures price under the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme during 2005-2012. More specifically, by relying on the daily EU allowance futures contract, we investigate the structural changes of the European carbon futures price. Structural breakpoints are detected based on the iterative cumulative sums of squares algorithm and event study models. The results show that since 2005, there have been three major breakpoints of the European carbon futures price, stemming from the two extreme events of the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2011 European debt crisis. This study contributes to understanding the pricing mechanism of the EU ETS and effectively forecasting carbon prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Bangzhu Zhu & Julien Chevallier & Shujiao Ma & Yiming Wei, 2015. "Examining the structural changes of European carbon futures price 2005-2012," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 335-342, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:22:y:2015:i:5:p:335-342
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2014.943875
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Chèze, Benoît, 2009. "Emissions Compliances and Carbon Prices under the EU ETS: A Country Specific Analysis of Industrial Sectors," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 446-462, May.
    2. Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian & Mercier, Ludovic, 2009. "Risk aversion and institutional information disclosure on the European carbon market: A case-study of the 2006 compliance event," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 15-28, January.
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    4. Creti, Anna & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Carbon price drivers: Phase I versus Phase II equilibrium?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 327-334.
    5. Emilie Alberola & Julien Chevallier & Benoît Chèze, 2009. "Emissions Compliances and Carbon Prices under the EU ETS: A Country Specific Analysis of Industrial SectorsEmissions Compliances and Carbon Price," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00649925, HAL.
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    8. Zhu, Bangzhu & Wei, Yiming, 2013. "Carbon price forecasting with a novel hybrid ARIMA and least squares support vector machines methodology," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 517-524.
    9. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2010. "An overview of current research on EU ETS: Evidence from its operating mechanism and economic effect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1804-1814, June.
    10. Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
    11. Demirer, RIza & Kutan, Ali M., 2010. "The behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices around OPEC and SPR announcements: An event study perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1467-1476, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mengrui Zhu & Hua Xu & Xingyu Gao & Minggang Wang & André L. M. Vilela & Lixin Tian, 2022. "Identification of Breakpoints in Carbon Market Based on Probability Density Recurrence Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Zhao, Lili & Wen, Fenghua, 2022. "Risk-return relationship and structural breaks: Evidence from China carbon market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 481-492.
    3. Bangzhu Zhu & Shujiao Ma & Rui Xie & Julien Chevallier & Yi-Ming Wei, 2018. "Hilbert Spectra and Empirical Mode Decomposition: A Multiscale Event Analysis Method to Detect the Impact of Economic Crises on the European Carbon Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 105-121, June.
    4. Cretí, Anna & Joëts, Marc, 2017. "Multiple bubbles in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 119-130.
    5. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Smeaton, Alan F., 2016. "Influences from the European Parliament on EU emissions prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 561-572.
    6. Karpf, Andreas & Mandel, Antoine & Battiston, Stefano, 2018. "Price and network dynamics in the European carbon market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 103-122.
    7. Reyer Gerlagh & Roweno J. R. K. Heijmans & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2020. "COVID-19 Tests the Market Stability Reserve," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 855-865, August.
    8. Pan, Di & Zhang, Chen & Zhu, Dandan & Ji, Yuanpu & Cao, Wei, 2022. "A novel method of detecting carbon asset price jump characteristics based on significant information shocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    9. Tan, Xueping & Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wang, Xinyu, 2020. "How connected is the carbon market to energy and financial markets? A systematic analysis of spillovers and dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    10. Jianfeng Guo & Bin Su & Guang Yang & Lianyong Feng & Yinpeng Liu & Fu Gu, 2018. "How Do Verified Emissions Announcements Affect the Comoves between Trading Behaviors and Carbon Prices? Evidence from EU ETS," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Friedrich, Marina & Mauer, Eva-Maria & Pahle, Michael & Tietjen, Oliver, 2020. "From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS," EconStor Preprints 196150, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    12. Bangzhu Zhu & Ping Wang & Julien Chevallier & Yi‐Ming Wei, 2023. "Enriching the value‐at‐risk framework to ensemble empirical mode decomposition with an application to the European carbon market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2975-2988, July.

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