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Risk and return of a trend-chasing application in financial markets: an empirical test

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  • Jukka Ilomäki

    (University of Tampere)

Abstract

The paper introduces an application of the moving average trend-chasing rule that effectively reduces the risk of portfolios. The results are fairly robust: all our moving average lags produce about 36% (34%) less Value-at-Risk and about 31% (30%) less expected shortfall without giving up any returns on average after transaction costs compared to the buy-and-hold strategy, calculated in local currencies (in U.S. dollars). In addition, the paper finds that the volatility of returns follows a similar pattern by producing on average 29% (30%) less volatility in local currencies (in U.S. dollars). Moreover, the CAPM betas of the trading rule are significantly lower (50%) than in the buy-and-hold strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jukka Ilomäki, 2018. "Risk and return of a trend-chasing application in financial markets: an empirical test," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 258-272, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:risman:v:20:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1057_s41283-018-0036-1
    DOI: 10.1057/s41283-018-0036-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Long Run Returns Predictability and Volatility with Moving Averages," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Chia-Lin Chang & Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Market Timing with Moving Averages for Fossil Fuel and Renewable Energy Stocks," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2018-24, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value-at-Risk; Expected shortfall; Volatility; Investment decision; Stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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