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Economic–Environmental Sustainability in Building Projects: Introducing Risk and Uncertainty in LCCE and LCCA

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Fregonara

    (Architecture and Design Department, Politecnico di Torino, 10125 Turin, Italy)

  • Diego Giuseppe Ferrando

    (Architecture and Design Department, Politecnico di Torino, 10125 Turin, Italy)

  • Sara Pattono

    (Architecture and Design Department, Politecnico di Torino, 10125 Turin, Italy)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for supporting decision-making in the design stages of new buildings or in the retrofitting of existing heritages. The focus is on the evaluation of economic–environmental sustainability, considering the presence of risk and uncertainty. An application of risk analysis in conjunction with Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is proposed for selecting the preferable solution between technological options, which represents a recent and poorly explored context of analysis. It is assumed that there is a presence of uncertainty in cost estimating, in terms of the Life-Cycle Cost Estimates (LCCEs) and uncertainty in the technical performance of the life-cycle cost analysis. According to the probability analysis, which was solved through stochastic simulation and the Monte Carlo Method (MCM), risk and uncertainty are modeled as stochastic variables or as “stochastic relevant cost drivers”. Coherently, the economic–financial and energy–environmental sustainability is analyzed through the calculation of a conjoint “economic–environmental indicator”, in terms of the stochastic global cost. A case study of the multifunctional building glass façade project in Northern Italy is proposed. The application demonstrates that introducing flexibility into the input data and the duration of the service lives of components and the economic and environmental behavior of alternative scenarios can lead to opposite results compared to a deterministic analysis. The results give full evidence of the environmental variables’ capacity to significantly perturb the model output.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Fregonara & Diego Giuseppe Ferrando & Sara Pattono, 2018. "Economic–Environmental Sustainability in Building Projects: Introducing Risk and Uncertainty in LCCE and LCCA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-21, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:6:p:1901-:d:151060
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wesam Salah Alaloul & Muhammad Altaf & Muhammad Ali Musarat & Muhammad Faisal Javed & Amir Mosavi, 2021. "Systematic Review of Life Cycle Assessment and Life Cycle Cost Analysis for Pavement and a Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-38, April.
    2. Patrick Bergmann & Endre Kamarás & Werner Gleißner & Edeltraud Guenther, 2020. "Enhanced Cash Flow Valuation in Real Estate Management by Integrating Innovative Materials and Risk Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-26, March.
    3. Elena Fregonara & Diego Giuseppe Ferrando, 2018. "How to Model Uncertain Service Life and Durability of Components in Life Cycle Cost Analysis Applications? The Stochastic Approach to the Factor Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-24, October.
    4. Elena Fregonara & Diego Giuseppe Ferrando, 2020. "The Stochastic Annuity Method for Supporting Maintenance Costs Planning and Durability in the Construction Sector: A Simulation on a Building Component," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, April.
    5. Pierluigi Morano & Francesco Tajani & Felicia Di Liddo & Debora Anelli, 2020. "A Feasibility Analysis of The Refurbishment Investments in The Italian Residential Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Domenico Enrico Massimo & Vincenzo Del Giudice & Alessandro Malerba & Carlo Bernardo & Mariangela Musolino & Pierfrancesco De Paola, 2021. "Valuation of Ecological Retrofitting Technology in Existing Buildings: A Real-World Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-35, June.
    7. Nima Pirhadi & Xiaowei Tang & Qing Yang & Fei Kang, 2018. "A New Equation to Evaluate Liquefaction Triggering Using the Response Surface Method and Parametric Sensitivity Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, December.

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