IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v8y2020i3p75-d383140.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Price Discovery and Market Reflexivity in Agricultural Futures Contracts with Different Maturities

Author

Listed:
  • Steffen Volkenand

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany)

  • Günther Filler

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany)

  • Martin Odening

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze market reflexivity in agricultural futures contracts with different maturities. To this end, we apply a four-dimensional Hawkes model to storable and non-storable agricultural commodities. We find market reflexivity for both storable and non-storable commodities. Reflexivity accounts for about 50 to 70% of the total trading activity. Differences between nearby and deferred contracts are less pronounced for non-storable than for storable commodities. We conclude that the co-existence of exogenous and endogenous price dynamics does not change qualitative characteristics of the price discovery process that have been observed earlier without the consideration of market reflexivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Steffen Volkenand & Günther Filler & Martin Odening, 2020. "Price Discovery and Market Reflexivity in Agricultural Futures Contracts with Different Maturities," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:8:y:2020:i:3:p:75-:d:383140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/8/3/75/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/8/3/75/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhepeng Hu & Mindy Mallory & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2020. "Measuring price discovery between nearby and deferred contracts in storable and nonstorable commodity futures markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(6), pages 825-840, November.
    2. Stephen J. Hardiman & Nicolas Bercot & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2013. "Critical reflexivity in financial markets: a Hawkes process analysis," Papers 1302.1405, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2013.
    3. Emmanuel Bacry & Thibault Jaisson & Jean--François Muzy, 2016. "Estimation of slowly decreasing Hawkes kernels: application to high-frequency order book dynamics," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 1179-1201, August.
    4. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    5. Henryk Gurgul & Robert Syrek, 2017. "Trading volume and volatility patterns across selected Central European stock markets from microstructural perspective," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 18(1), pages 87-102.
    6. Yosihiko Ogata, 1998. "Space-Time Point-Process Models for Earthquake Occurrences," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 50(2), pages 379-402, June.
    7. Bowsher, Clive G., 2007. "Modelling security market events in continuous time: Intensity based, multivariate point process models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 876-912, December.
    8. Gray, Roger W. & Rutledge, David J.S., 1971. "The Economics of Commodity Futures Markets: A Survey," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 39(04), pages 1-52, December.
    9. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    10. Carsten Sørensen, 2002. "Modeling seasonality in agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 393-426, May.
    11. Large, Jeremy, 2007. "Measuring the resiliency of an electronic limit order book," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, February.
    12. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    13. Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-976, July.
    14. deB. Harris, Frederick H. & McInish, Thomas H. & Wood, Robert A., 2002. "Security price adjustment across exchanges: an investigation of common factor components for Dow stocks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 277-308, July.
    15. Luc, BAUWENS & Nikolaus, HAUTSCH, 2006. "Modelling Financial High Frequency Data Using Point Processes," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006039, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    16. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. "Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
    17. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2015. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the Theory of Storage," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 4, pages 79-102, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-1199, September.
    19. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
    20. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    21. Stephen Hardiman & Nicolas Bercot & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2013. "Critical reflexivity in financial markets: a Hawkes process analysis," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 86(10), pages 1-9, October.
    22. Hélyette Geman & Vu-Nhat Nguyen, 2005. "Soybean Inventory and Forward Curve Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(7), pages 1076-1091, July.
    23. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1937 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Bicchetti, David & Maystre, Nicolas Maystre, 2013. "The synchronized and long-lasting structural change on commodity markets: Evidence from high frequency data," Algorithmic Finance, IOS Press, vol. 2(3-4), pages 233-239.
    25. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    26. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    27. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. "Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
    28. Anabelle Couleau & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2019. "Microstructure Noise and Realized Variance in the Live Cattle Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(2), pages 563-578.
    29. Filimonov, Vladimir & Bicchetti, David & Maystre, Nicolas & Sornette, Didier, 2014. "Quantification of the high level of endogeneity and of structural regime shifts in commodity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 174-192.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Filimonov, Vladimir & Bicchetti, David & Maystre, Nicolas & Sornette, Didier, 2014. "Quantification of the high level of endogeneity and of structural regime shifts in commodity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 174-192.
    2. Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2020. "Modeling aggressive market order placements with Hawkes factor models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, January.
    3. Maxime Morariu-Patrichi & Mikko Pakkanen, 2018. "State-dependent Hawkes processes and their application to limit order book modelling," CREATES Research Papers 2018-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Maxime Morariu-Patrichi & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2018. "State-dependent Hawkes processes and their application to limit order book modelling," Papers 1809.08060, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    5. Choi, So Eun & Jang, Hyun Jin & Lee, Kyungsub & Zheng, Harry, 2021. "Optimal market-Making strategies under synchronised order arrivals with deep neural networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Xinyue He & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2021. "Resilience in “Flash Events” in the Corn and Lean Hog Futures Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(2), pages 743-764, March.
    7. Maxime Morariu-Patrichi & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2017. "Hybrid marked point processes: characterisation, existence and uniqueness," Papers 1707.06970, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    8. Emmanuel Bacry & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Jean-Franc{c}ois Muzy, 2015. "Hawkes processes in finance," Papers 1502.04592, arXiv.org, revised May 2015.
    9. Anatoliy Swishchuk & Aiden Huffman, 2020. "General Compound Hawkes Processes in Limit Order Books," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, March.
    10. Back, Janis & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Rudolf, Markus, 2013. "Seasonality and the valuation of commodity options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 273-290.
    11. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 27, July-Dece.
    12. Massil Achab & Emmanuel Bacry & Jean-Franc{c}ois Muzy & Marcello Rambaldi, 2017. "Analysis of order book flows using a nonparametric estimation of the branching ratio matrix," Papers 1706.03411, arXiv.org.
    13. Constantino Hevia & Ivan Petrella & Martin Sola, 2018. "Risk premia and seasonality in commodity futures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 853-873, September.
    14. Thibault Jaisson, 2014. "Market impact as anticipation of the order flow imbalance," Papers 1402.1288, arXiv.org.
    15. Max F. Schöne & Stefan Spinler, 2017. "A four-factor stochastic volatility model of commodity prices," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 135-165, July.
    16. Wheatley, Spencer & Filimonov, Vladimir & Sornette, Didier, 2016. "The Hawkes process with renewal immigration & its estimation with an EM algorithm," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 120-135.
    17. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Kovacevic, Ivo & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2015. "Expected commodity returns and pricing models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 60-71.
    18. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2015, January-A.
    19. Bowsher, Clive G., 2007. "Modelling security market events in continuous time: Intensity based, multivariate point process models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 876-912, December.
    20. Clive Bowsher, 2002. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-W22, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:8:y:2020:i:3:p:75-:d:383140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.