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Modeling seasonality in agricultural commodity futures

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  • Carsten Sørensen

Abstract

The stochastic behavior of agricultural commodity prices is investigated using observations of the term structures of futures prices over time. The continuous time dynamics of (log‐) commodity prices are modeled as a sum of a deterministic seasonal component, a non‐stationary state‐variable, and a stationary state‐variable. Futures prices are established by standard no‐arbitrage arguments and the Kalman filter methodology is used to estimate the model parameters for corn futures, soybean futures, and wheat futures based on weekly data from the Chicago Board of Trade for the period 1972–1997. Furthermore, in a discussion of the estimated seasonal patterns in agricultural commodity prices, the paper provides empirical evidence on the theory of storage that predicts a negative relationship between stocks of inventory and convenience yields; in particular, convenience yields used in this analysis are extracted using the Kalman filter. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:393–426, 2002

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  • Carsten Sørensen, 2002. "Modeling seasonality in agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 393-426, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:22:y:2002:i:5:p:393-426
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    1. Zi‐Yi Guo, 2020. "Stochastic multifactor models in risk management of energy futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(12), pages 1918-1934, December.
    2. Población, Javier & Serna, Gregorio, 2016. "Is the refining margin stationary?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 169-186.
    3. Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2018. "A common long-term trend for bulk shipping prices," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 20(3), pages 421-432, September.
    4. Peilun He & Nino Kordzakhia & Gareth W. Peters & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2024. "Multi-Factor Polynomial Diffusion Models and Inter-Temporal Futures Dynamics," Papers 2409.19386, arXiv.org.
    5. Steffen Volkenand & Günther Filler & Martin Odening, 2020. "Price Discovery and Market Reflexivity in Agricultural Futures Contracts with Different Maturities," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-17, July.
    6. Zi-Yi Guo & Yangxiaoteng Luo, 2017. "Dynamic Stochastic Factors, Risk Management and the Energy Futures," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(9), pages 50-59, September.
    7. Constantino Hevia & Ivan Petrella & Martin Sola, 2018. "Risk premia and seasonality in commodity futures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 853-873, September.
    8. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2021. "Price volatilities of bitcoin futures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    9. Adam Zaremba, 2015. "Portfolio Diversification with Commodities in Times of Financialization," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 4(1), pages 18-36, January.
    10. Lin, Chuanyi & Roberts, Matthew C., 2006. "Storability on Modeling Commodity Futures Prices," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21484, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Ponomareva, Natalia & Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2024. "Metal and energy price uncertainties and the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    12. Marcel Prokopczuk & Yingying Wu, 2013. "Estimating term structure models with the Kalman filter," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 4, pages 97-113, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Andrés Mirantes & Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2015. "Commodity derivative valuation under a factor model with time-varying market prices of risk," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 75-93, April.
    14. Power, Gabriel J. & Eaves, James & Turvey, Calum & Vedenov, Dmitry, 2017. "Catching the curl: Wavelet thresholding improves forward curve modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 312-321.
    15. Sharon K Jose & Girish G P, 2021. "Seasonality in Indian Commodities Market: Insights for modeling from preceding commodity cycle," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 167-173.
    16. Andrés García Mirantes & Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2012. "The Stochastic Seasonal Behaviour of Natural Gas Prices," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(3), pages 410-443, June.
    17. Dolores Furio & Javier Poblacion, 2018. "Electricity and Natural Gas Prices Sharing the Long-term Trend: Some Evidence from the Spanish Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 173-180.
    18. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2017. "Models with Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Risk Management of Commodity Derivatives," EconStor Preprints 167619, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    19. Rodriguez, J.C., 2007. "A Preference-Free Formula to Value Commodity Derivatives," Other publications TiSEM 7354a9fa-3202-40c1-aeb2-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Andrés García-Mirantes & Beatriz Larraz & Javier Población, 2020. "A Proposal to Fix the Number of Factors on Modeling the Dynamics of Futures Contracts on Commodity Prices," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-13, June.
    21. Sheng-Hung Chen & Song-Zan Chiou-Wei & Zhen Zhu, 2022. "Stochastic seasonality in commodity prices: the case of US natural gas," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2263-2284, May.
    22. Javier Población, 2017. "Are recent tanker freight rates stationary?," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(4), pages 650-666, December.
    23. Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2021. "Measuring bulk shipping prices risk," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(2), pages 291-309, June.

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