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Historical Penetration Patterns of Automobile Electronic Control Systems and Implications for Critical Raw Materials Recycling

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  • Eliette Restrepo

    (Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Material Science and Technology, CH-9014 St. Gallen, Switzerland
    Industrial Ecology Programme and Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology–NTNU, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway)

  • Amund N. Løvik

    (Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Material Science and Technology, CH-9014 St. Gallen, Switzerland)

  • Rolf Widmer

    (Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Material Science and Technology, CH-9014 St. Gallen, Switzerland)

  • Patrick Wäger

    (Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Material Science and Technology, CH-9014 St. Gallen, Switzerland)

  • Daniel B. Müller

    (Industrial Ecology Programme and Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology–NTNU, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway)

Abstract

Car electronics form a large but poorly utilized source for secondary critical raw materials (CRMs). To capitalize on this potential, it is necessary to understand the mechanism in which car electronics enter and exit the vehicle fleet over time. We analyze the historical penetration of selected car electronic control systems (ECS) in 65,475 car models sold in the past 14 years by means of statistical learning. We find that the historical penetration of ECS tends to follow S-shaped curves, however with substantial variations in penetration speed and saturation level. Although electronic functions are increasing rapidly, comfort-related ECS tend to remain below 40% penetration even after 14 years on the market. In contrast, safety regulations lead to rapid ECS penetration approaching 100%, while environmental emission regulations seem to indirectly push related ECS to a medium penetration level (e.g., growing to 60% after six years). The trend towards integration of individual ECS poses long-term challenges for car electronics dismantling and recycling. Monitoring the ECS embedded in new cars, such as carried out in this study, can inform timely updates for such strategies. The results also provide a framework for developing scenarios to identify related future CRM stocks and flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Eliette Restrepo & Amund N. Løvik & Rolf Widmer & Patrick Wäger & Daniel B. Müller, 2019. "Historical Penetration Patterns of Automobile Electronic Control Systems and Implications for Critical Raw Materials Recycling," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jresou:v:8:y:2019:i:2:p:58-:d:218718
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wei, Pengfei & Lu, Zhenzhou & Song, Jingwen, 2015. "Variable importance analysis: A comprehensive review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 399-432.
    2. Abel Ortego & Alicia Valero & Antonio Valero & Eliette Restrepo, 2018. "Vehicles and Critical Raw Materials: A Sustainability Assessment Using Thermodynamic Rarity," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 22(5), pages 1005-1015, October.
    3. Yuna Seo & Shinichirou Morimoto, 2017. "Analyzing Platinum and Palladium Consumption and Demand Forecast in Japan," Resources, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-13, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marta Iglesias-Émbil & Alejandro Abadías & Alicia Valero & Guiomar Calvo & Markus Andreas Reuter & Abel Ortego, 2022. "Criticality and Recyclability Assessment of Car Parts—A Thermodynamic Simulation-Based Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Felipe Bitencourt de Oliveira & Anders Nordelöf & Maria Bernander & Björn A. Sandén, 2024. "Assessing Metal Use and Scarcity Impacts of Vehicle Gliders," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 1851-1875, September.

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