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Two-Age-Structured COVID-19 Epidemic Model: Estimation of Virulence Parameters to Interpret Effects of National and Regional Feedback Interventions and Vaccination

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  • Cristiano Maria Verrelli

    (Electronic Engineering Department, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome, Italy)

  • Fabio Della Rossa

    (Department of Electronic, Information and Biomedical Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milan, Italy)

Abstract

The COVID-19 epidemic has recently led in Italy to the implementation of different external strategies in order to limit the spread of the disease in response to its transmission rate: strict national lockdown rules, followed first by a weakening of the social distancing and contact reduction feedback interventions and finally the implementation of coordinated intermittent regional actions, up to the application, in this last context, of an age-stratified vaccine prioritization strategy. This paper originally aims at identifying, starting from the available age-structured real data at the national level during the specific aforementioned scenarios, external-scenario-dependent sets of virulence parameters for a two-age-structured COVID-19 epidemic compartmental model, in order to provide an interpretation of how each external scenario modifies the age-dependent patterns of social contacts and the spread of COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristiano Maria Verrelli & Fabio Della Rossa, 2021. "Two-Age-Structured COVID-19 Epidemic Model: Estimation of Virulence Parameters to Interpret Effects of National and Regional Feedback Interventions and Vaccination," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-12, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:19:p:2414-:d:645096
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    1. Fabio Della Rossa & Davide Salzano & Anna Di Meglio & Francesco De Lellis & Marco Coraggio & Carmela Calabrese & Agostino Guarino & Ricardo Cardona-Rivera & Pietro De Lellis & Davide Liuzza & Francesc, 2020. "A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Christian Dudel & Timothy Riffe & Enrique Acosta & Alyson A. van Raalte & Cosmo Strozza & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "Monitoring trends and differences in COVID-19 case-fatality rates using decomposition methods: contributions of age structure and age-specific fatality," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-020, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
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