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Decoding India's Low Covid-19 Case Fatality rate

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  • Minu Philip
  • Debraj Ray
  • S. Subramanian

Abstract

India’s case fatality rate (CFR) under covid-19 is strikingly low, trending from 3% or more, to a current level of around 2.2%. The world average rate is far higher, at around 4%. Several observers have noted that this difference is at least partly due to India’s younger age distribution. In this paper, we use age-specific fatality rates from 14 comparison countries, coupled with India’s distribution of covid-19 cases to “predict" what India’s CFR would be with those age-specific rates. In most cases, those predictions are lower than India’s actual performance, suggesting that India’s CFR is, if anything, too high rather than too low. We supplement the prediction exercises with the application of a decomposition technique, and we additionally account for time lags between case incidence and death, for a more relevant cross-country perspective in the growth phase of the pandemic.

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  • Minu Philip & Debraj Ray & S. Subramanian, 2020. "Decoding India's Low Covid-19 Case Fatality rate," NBER Working Papers 27696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27696
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ravi Kanbur & Diganta Mukherjee, 2007. "Premature Mortality And Poverty Measurement," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 339-359, October.
    2. Debraj Ray & S. Subramanian, 2020. "India’s lockdown: an interim report," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 31-79, November.
    3. Christian Dudel & Timothy Riffe & Enrique Acosta & Alyson A. van Raalte & Cosmo Strozza & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "Monitoring trends and differences in COVID-19 case-fatality rates using decomposition methods: contributions of age structure and age-specific fatality," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-020, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Siwan Anderson & Debraj Ray, 2010. "Missing Women: Age and Disease," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(4), pages 1262-1300.
    5. Anthony Shorrocks, 2013. "Decomposition procedures for distributional analysis: a unified framework based on the Shapley value," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 11(1), pages 99-126, March.
    6. D. Jayaraj & S. Subramanian, 2009. "The wellbeing implications of a change in the sex-ratio of a population," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 33(1), pages 129-150, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vandana Tamrakar & Ankita Srivastava & Nandita Saikia & Mukesh C Parmar & Sudheer Kumar Shukla & Shewli Shabnam & Bandita Boro & Apala Saha & Benjamin Debbarma, 2021. "District level correlates of COVID-19 pandemic in India during March-October 2020," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-17, September.
    2. John Creedy & S. Subramanian, 2022. "Mortality Comparisons ‘At a Glance’: A Mortality Concentration Curve and Decomposition Analysis for India," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 84(2), pages 873-894, November.
    3. Shah, Ajay, 2021. "Indian Health Policy in Light of COVID-19: The Puzzle of State Capacity and Institutional Design," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 31-75.
    4. Shreekant Gupta, 2020. "Pandemics, COVID-19 and India," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 1-12, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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