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A regression model for electric-energy-consumption forecasting in Eastern Saudi Arabia

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  • Al-Garni, Ahmed Z.
  • Zubair, Syed M.
  • Nizami, Javeed S.

Abstract

Electrical energy consumption in Eastern Saudi Arabia is modeled as a function of weather data, global solar radiation and population. Five years of data have been used to develop the energy-consumption model. Variable selection in the regression model is carried out by using general, stepping-regression techniques. The problem of colinearity between the regressors is investigated by using standard statistical procedures. Model adequacy is determined from a residual analysis technique. The final model involves the parameters air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and population. However, the model coefficients are functions only of solar radiation and relative humidity or constant.

Suggested Citation

  • Al-Garni, Ahmed Z. & Zubair, Syed M. & Nizami, Javeed S., 1994. "A regression model for electric-energy-consumption forecasting in Eastern Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 19(10), pages 1043-1049.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:19:y:1994:i:10:p:1043-1049
    DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(94)90092-2
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    1. Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.
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    3. Zhang, Ming & Mu, Hailin & Li, Gang & Ning, Yadong, 2009. "Forecasting the transport energy demand based on PLSR method in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1396-1400.
    4. Khan, Ahsan Raza & Mahmood, Anzar & Safdar, Awais & Khan, Zafar A. & Khan, Naveed Ahmed, 2016. "Load forecasting, dynamic pricing and DSM in smart grid: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1311-1322.
    5. Kumar, Ujjwal & Jain, V.K., 2010. "Time series models (Grey-Markov, Grey Model with rolling mechanism and singular spectrum analysis) to forecast energy consumption in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1709-1716.
    6. Wen-Ze Wu & Chong Liu & Wanli Xie & Mark Goh & Tao Zhang, 2023. "Predictive analysis of the industrial water-waste-energy system using an optimised grey approach: A case study in China," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(5), pages 1639-1656, August.
    7. Y, Kiguchi & Y, Heo & M, Weeks & R, Choudhary, 2019. "Predicting intra-day load profiles under time-of-use tariffs using smart meter data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 959-970.
    8. Tso, Geoffrey K.F. & Yau, Kelvin K.W., 2007. "Predicting electricity energy consumption: A comparison of regression analysis, decision tree and neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1761-1768.
    9. Hu, Ting & Wang, Ting & Yan, Qingyun & Chen, Tiexi & Jin, Shuanggen & Hu, Jun, 2022. "Modeling the spatiotemporal dynamics of global electric power consumption (1992–2019) by utilizing consistent nighttime light data from DMSP-OLS and NPP-VIIRS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    10. Jeong, Jaewook & Hong, Taehoon & Ji, Changyoon & Kim, Jimin & Lee, Minhyun & Jeong, Kwangbok, 2016. "Development of an integrated energy benchmark for a multi-family housing complex using district heating," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1048-1061.
    11. Radhi, Hassan & Sharples, Stephen, 2013. "Quantifying the domestic electricity consumption for air-conditioning due to urban heat islands in hot arid regions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 371-380.
    12. Nsangou, Jean Calvin & Kenfack, Joseph & Nzotcha, Urbain & Ngohe Ekam, Paul Salomon & Voufo, Joseph & Tamo, Thomas T., 2022. "Explaining household electricity consumption using quantile regression, decision tree and artificial neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    13. Hu, Ting & Huang, Xin, 2019. "A novel locally adaptive method for modeling the spatiotemporal dynamics of global electric power consumption based on DMSP-OLS nighttime stable light data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 778-792.
    14. Kaneko, Nanae & Fujimoto, Yu & Hayashi, Yasuhiro, 2022. "Sensitivity analysis of factors relevant to extreme imbalance between procurement plans and actual demand: Case study of the Japanese electricity market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    15. Sánchez, Gustavo Crespo & Monteagudo Yanes, José Pedro & Pérez, Milagros Montesino & Cabrera Sánchez, Jorge Luis & Padrón, Arturo Padrón & Haeseldonckx, Dries, 2020. "Efficiency in electromechanical drive motors and energy performance indicators for implementing a management system in balanced animal feed manufacturing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    16. Javeed Nizami, SSAK & Al-Garni, Ahmed Z, 1995. "Forecasting electric energy consumption using neural networks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1097-1104, December.
    17. Hong, Taehoon & Koo, Choongwan & Jeong, Kwangbok, 2012. "A decision support model for reducing electric energy consumption in elementary school facilities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 253-266.
    18. Kaneko, Nanae & Fujimoto, Yu & Kabe, Satoshi & Hayashida, Motonari & Hayashi, Yasuhiro, 2020. "Sparse modeling approach for identifying the dominant factors affecting situation-dependent hourly electricity demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    19. Salma Hamad Almuhaini & Nahid Sultana, 2023. "Bayesian-Optimization-Based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Super Learner Approach for Modeling Long-Term Electricity Consumption," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-23, September.
    20. Salma Hamad Almuhaini & Nahid Sultana, 2023. "Forecasting Long-Term Electricity Consumption in Saudi Arabia Based on Statistical and Machine Learning Algorithms to Enhance Electric Power Supply Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-28, February.
    21. Yu-Sheng Kao & Kazumitsu Nawata & Chi-Yo Huang, 2020. "Predicting Primary Energy Consumption Using Hybrid ARIMA and GA-SVR Based on EEMD Decomposition," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-19, October.
    22. Jimyung Kang & Soonwoo Lee, 2018. "Data-Driven Prediction of Load Curtailment in Incentive-Based Demand Response System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-14, October.
    23. Liu, Yuan & He, Li & Shen, Jing, 2017. "Optimization-based provincial hybrid renewable and non-renewable energy planning – A case study of Shanxi, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 839-856.

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