IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v7y2019i6p531-d238766.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Intelligence in Tourism Management: A Hybrid FOA-BP Method on Daily Tourism Demand Forecasting with Web Search Data

Author

Listed:
  • Keqing Li

    (School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China)

  • Wenxing Lu

    (School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China
    Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Process Optimization and Intelligent Decision-making, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China)

  • Changyong Liang

    (School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China
    Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Process Optimization and Intelligent Decision-making, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China)

  • Binyou Wang

    (School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China)

Abstract

The Chinese tourism industry has been developing rapidly for the past several years, and the number of people traveling has been increasing year by year. However, many problems still beset current tourism management. Lack of effective management has caused numerous problems, such as tourists stranded during tourist season and the declining service quality of scenic spots, which have become the focus of tourists’ attention. Network search data can intuitively reflect the attention of most users through the combination of the network search index and the back propagation (BP) neural network model. This study predicts the daily tourism demand in the Huangshan scenic spot in China. The filtered keyword in the Baidu index is added to the hybrid neural network, and a BP neural network model optimized by a fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOA) based on the web search data is established in this study. Different forecasting methods are compared in this paper; the results prove that compared with other prediction models, higher accuracy can be obtained when it comes to the peak season using the FOA-BP method that includes web search data, which is a sustainable means of practically solving the tourism management problem by a more accurate prediction of tourism demand of scenic spots.

Suggested Citation

  • Keqing Li & Wenxing Lu & Changyong Liang & Binyou Wang, 2019. "Intelligence in Tourism Management: A Hybrid FOA-BP Method on Daily Tourism Demand Forecasting with Web Search Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-14, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:7:y:2019:i:6:p:531-:d:238766
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/7/6/531/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/7/6/531/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Dimpfl & Stephan Jank, 2016. "Can Internet Search Queries Help to Predict Stock Market Volatility?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(2), pages 171-192, March.
    2. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juncal Cunado & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2008. "Tourism in the Canary Islands: forecasting using several seasonal time series models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 621-636.
    3. Jeremy Ginsberg & Matthew H. Mohebbi & Rajan S. Patel & Lynnette Brammer & Mark S. Smolinski & Larry Brilliant, 2009. "Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data," Nature, Nature, vol. 457(7232), pages 1012-1014, February.
    4. Yang, Xin & Pan, Bing & Evans, James A. & Lv, Benfu, 2015. "Forecasting Chinese tourist volume with search engine data," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 386-397.
    5. Francesco, D'Amuri, 2009. "Predicting unemployment in short samples with internet job search query data," MPRA Paper 18403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Haodong Sun & Yang Yang & Yanyan Chen & Xiaoming Liu & Jiachen Wang, 2023. "Tourism demand forecasting of multi-attractions with spatiotemporal grid: a convolutional block attention module model," Information Technology & Tourism, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 205-233, June.
    2. Jiahui Huang & Chenglong Zhang, 2024. "Daily Tourism Demand Forecasting with the iTransformer Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-22, December.
    3. Guanghai Zhang & Hongying Yuan, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Spatial Differences in Urban Tourism Network Attention in China: Based on the Baidu Index," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-15, October.
    4. Abang Zainoren Abang Abdurahman & Wan Fairos Wan Yaacob & Syerina Azlin Md Nasir & Serah Jaya & Suhaili Mokhtar, 2022. "Using Machine Learning to Predict Visitors to Totally Protected Areas in Sarawak, Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-16, February.
    5. Jian-Wu Bi & Tian-Yu Han & Yanbo Yao, 2024. "Collaborative forecasting of tourism demand for multiple tourist attractions with spatial dependence: A combined deep learning model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(2), pages 361-388, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Imene Ben El Hadj Said & Skander Slim, 2022. "The Dynamic Relationship between Investor Attention and Stock Market Volatility: International Evidence," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-25, February.
    2. Shenzhen Tian & Xueming Li & Jun Yang & Hui Wang & Jianke Guo, 2023. "Spatiotemporal evolution of pseudo human settlements: case study of 36 cities in the three provinces of Northeast China from 2011 to 2018," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 1742-1772, February.
    3. Ken Wong & Max Kwong & Paul Luk & Michael Cheng, 2023. "A robust textual analysis of the dynamics of Hong Kong property market," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 314-346, August.
    4. D'Amuri, Francesco & Marcucci, Juri, 2009. "‘Google it!’ Forecasting the US unemployment rate with a Google job search index," ISER Working Paper Series 2009-32, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    5. Jianchun Fang & Wanshan Wu & Zhou Lu & Eunho Cho, 2019. "Using Baidu Index To Nowcast Mobile Phone Sales In China," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(01), pages 83-96, March.
    6. María José Ayala & Nicolás Gonzálvez-Gallego & Rocío Arteaga-Sánchez, 2024. "Google search volume index and investor attention in stock market: a systematic review," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-29, December.
    7. Papadamou, Stephanos & Fassas, Athanasios P. & Kenourgios, Dimitris & Dimitriou, Dimitrios, 2023. "Effects of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic on implied stock market volatility: International evidence using a google trend measure," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    8. Long Wen & Chang Liu & Haiyan Song, 2019. "Forecasting tourism demand using search query data: A hybrid modelling approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 309-329, May.
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-405 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Hulya Bakirtas & Vildan Gulpinar Demirci, 2022. "Can Google Trends data provide information on consumer’s perception regarding hotel brands?," Information Technology & Tourism, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 57-83, March.
    11. Massimiliano Caporin & Francesco Poli, 2017. "Building News Measures from Textual Data and an Application to Volatility Forecasting," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-46, August.
    12. Zhongchen Song & Tom Coupé, 2023. "Predicting Chinese consumption series with Baidu," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 429-463, July.
    13. Zhang, Chuan & Tian, Yu-Xin & Fan, Zhi-Ping, 2022. "Forecasting sales using online review and search engine data: A method based on PCA–DSFOA–BPNN," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1005-1024.
    14. Qadan, Mahmoud & Nama, Hazar, 2018. "Investor sentiment and the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 42-58.
    15. Rivera, Roberto, 2016. "A dynamic linear model to forecast hotel registrations in Puerto Rico using Google Trends data," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 12-20.
    16. Hamid, Alain & Heiden, Moritz, 2015. "Forecasting volatility with empirical similarity and Google Trends," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 62-81.
    17. Bai, Lijuan & Yan, Xiangbin & Yu, Guang, 2019. "Impact of CEO media appearance on corporate performance in social media," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    18. McLaren, Nick & Shanbhogue, Rachana, 2011. "Using internet search data as economic indicators," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(2), pages 134-140.
    19. Fantazzini, Dean & Shangina, Tamara, 2019. "The importance of being informed: forecasting market risk measures for the Russian RTS index future using online data and implied volatility over two decades," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 55, pages 5-31.
    20. Campos, I. & Cortazar, G. & Reyes, T., 2017. "Modeling and predicting oil VIX: Internet search volume versus traditional mariables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 194-204.
    21. Yang, Yang & Fan, Yawen & Jiang, Lan & Liu, Xiaohui, 2022. "Search query and tourism forecasting during the pandemic: When and where can digital footprints be helpful as predictors?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:7:y:2019:i:6:p:531-:d:238766. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.