Price Prediction for Fresh Agricultural Products Based on a Boosting Ensemble Algorithm

The time series of agricultural prices exhibit brevity and considerable volatility. Considering that traditional time series models and machine learning models are facing challenges in making predictions with high accuracy and robustness, this paper proposes a Light gradient boosting machine model based on the boosting ensemble learning algorithm to predict prices for three representative types of fresh agricultural products (bananas, beef, crucian carp). The prediction performance of the Light gradient boosting machine model is evaluated by comparing it against multiple benchmark models (ARIMA, decision tree, random forest, support vector machine, XGBoost, and artificial neural network) in terms of accuracy, generalizability, and robustness on different datasets and under different time windows. Among these models, the Light gradient boosting machine model is shown to have the highest prediction accuracy and the most stable performance across three different datasets under both long-term and short-term time windows. As the time window length increases, the Light gradient boosting machine model becomes more advantageous for effectively reducing error fluctuation, demonstrating better robustness. Consequently, the model proposed in this paper holds significant potential for forecasting fresh agricultural product prices, thereby facilitating the advancement of precision and sustainable farming practices.