IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v12y2024i16p2561-d1459404.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Distributed Regional Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on Stack Integration Algorithm

Author

Listed:
  • Keyong Hu

    (School of Information Science and Technology, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China
    Mobile Health Management System Engineering Research Center of the Ministry of Education, Hangzhou 311121, China)

  • Chunyuan Lang

    (School of Information Science and Technology, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China)

  • Zheyi Fu

    (School of Information Science and Technology, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China)

  • Yang Feng

    (School of Information Science and Technology, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China
    Mobile Health Management System Engineering Research Center of the Ministry of Education, Hangzhou 311121, China)

  • Shuifa Sun

    (School of Information Science and Technology, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China
    Mobile Health Management System Engineering Research Center of the Ministry of Education, Hangzhou 311121, China)

  • Ben Wang

    (School of Information Science and Technology, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China
    Mobile Health Management System Engineering Research Center of the Ministry of Education, Hangzhou 311121, China)

Abstract

With the continuous increase in the proportion of distributed photovoltaic power stations, the demand for photovoltaic power grid connection is becoming more and more urgent, and the requirements for the accuracy of regional distributed photovoltaic power forecasting are also increasing. A distributed regional photovoltaic power prediction model based on a stacked ensemble algorithm is proposed here. This model first uses a graph attention network (GAT) to learn the structural features and relationships between sub-area photovoltaic power stations, dynamically calculating the attention weights of the photovoltaic power stations to capture the global relationships and importance between stations, and selects representative stations for each sub-area. Subsequently, the CNN-LSTM-multi-head attention parallel multi-channel (CNN-LSTM-MHA (PC)) model is used as the basic model to predict representative stations for sub-areas by integrating the advantages of both the CNN and LSTM models. The predicted results are then used as new features for the input data of the meta-model, which finally predicts the photovoltaic power of the large area. Through comparative experiments at different seasons and time scales, this distributed regional approach reduced the MAE metric by a total of 22.85 kW in spring, 17 kW in summer, 30.26 kW in autumn, and 50.62 kW in winter compared with other models.

Suggested Citation

  • Keyong Hu & Chunyuan Lang & Zheyi Fu & Yang Feng & Shuifa Sun & Ben Wang, 2024. "Distributed Regional Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on Stack Integration Algorithm," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-26, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:16:p:2561-:d:1459404
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/16/2561/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/16/2561/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Niu, Dongxiao & Yu, Min & Sun, Lijie & Gao, Tian & Wang, Keke, 2022. "Short-term multi-energy load forecasting for integrated energy systems based on CNN-BiGRU optimized by attention mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zeng, Huibin & Shao, Bilin & Dai, Hongbin & Yan, Yichuan & Tian, Ning, 2023. "Prediction of fluctuation loads based on GARCH family-CatBoost-CNNLSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    2. Yifei Chen & Zhihan Fu, 2023. "Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting of the Energy Consumed by the Residential and Commercial Sectors in the United States Based on a Hybrid CNN-BiLSTM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-21, January.
    3. Siting Li & Huafeng Cai, 2024. "Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Using a VMD-Crossformer Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Zheng Wan & Hui Li, 2023. "Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on Feature Filtering and Error Compensation under Imbalanced Samples," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-22, May.
    5. Jiang, Ben & Li, Yu & Rezgui, Yacine & Zhang, Chengyu & Wang, Peng & Zhao, Tianyi, 2024. "Multi-source domain generalization deep neural network model for predicting energy consumption in multiple office buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    6. Yang, Kailing & Zhang, Xi & Luo, Haojia & Hou, Xianping & Lin, Yu & Wu, Jingyu & Yu, Liang, 2024. "Predicting energy prices based on a novel hybrid machine learning: Comprehensive study of multi-step price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    7. Hu, Yue & Liu, Hanjing & Wu, Senzhen & Zhao, Yuan & Wang, Zhijin & Liu, Xiufeng, 2024. "Temporal collaborative attention for wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    8. Salari, Ali & Shakibi, Hamid & Soleimanzade, Mohammad Amin & Sadrzadeh, Mohtada & Hakkaki-Fard, Ali, 2024. "Application of machine learning in evaluating and optimizing the hydrogen production performance of a solar-based electrolyzer system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    9. Fargalla, Mandella Ali M. & Yan, Wei & Deng, Jingen & Wu, Tao & Kiyingi, Wyclif & Li, Guangcong & Zhang, Wei, 2024. "TimeNet: Time2Vec attention-based CNN-BiGRU neural network for predicting production in shale and sandstone gas reservoirs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    10. Wang, Yongli & Wang, Huan & Meng, Xiao & Dong, Huanran & Chen, Xin & Xiang, Hao & Xing, Juntai, 2023. "Considering the dual endogenous-exogenous uncertainty integrated energy multiple load short-term forecast," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    11. Yongning Zhang & Xiaoying Ren & Fei Zhang & Yulei Liu & Jierui Li, 2024. "A Deep Learning-Based Dual-Scale Hybrid Model for Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-22, August.
    12. Zhao, Geya & Xue, Minggao & Cheng, Li, 2023. "A new hybrid model for multi-step WTI futures price forecasting based on self-attention mechanism and spatial–temporal graph neural network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    13. Zhao, Hongqian & Chen, Zheng & Shu, Xing & Shen, Jiangwei & Lei, Zhenzhen & Zhang, Yuanjian, 2023. "State of health estimation for lithium-ion batteries based on hybrid attention and deep learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    14. Yan, Qin & Lu, Zhiying & Liu, Hong & He, Xingtang & Zhang, Xihai & Guo, Jianlin, 2024. "Short-term prediction of integrated energy load aggregation using a bi-directional simple recurrent unit network with feature-temporal attention mechanism ensemble learning model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).
    15. Ma, Xin & Peng, Bo & Ma, Xiangxue & Tian, Changbin & Yan, Yi, 2023. "Multi-timescale optimization scheduling of regional integrated energy system based on source-load joint forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    16. Tao Liu & Xiting Ma & Ling Liu & Xin Liu & Yue Zhao & Ning Hu & Kayhan Zrar Ghafoor, 2024. "LAMBERT: Leveraging Attention Mechanisms to Improve the BERT Fine-Tuning Model for Encrypted Traffic Classification," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-22, May.
    17. Zhou, Guangzhao & Guo, Zanquan & Sun, Simin & Jin, Qingsheng, 2023. "A CNN-BiGRU-AM neural network for AI applications in shale oil production prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 344(C).
    18. Yuvaraj Natarajan & Sri Preethaa K. R. & Gitanjali Wadhwa & Young Choi & Zengshun Chen & Dong-Eun Lee & Yirong Mi, 2024. "Enhancing Building Energy Efficiency with IoT-Driven Hybrid Deep Learning Models for Accurate Energy Consumption Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-23, February.
    19. Hua, Pengmin & Wang, Haichao & Xie, Zichan & Lahdelma, Risto, 2024. "District heating load patterns and short-term forecasting for buildings and city level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    20. Salari, Ali & Shakibi, Hamid & Soltani, Shohreh & Kazemian, Arash & Ma, Tao, 2024. "Optimization assessment and performance analysis of an ingenious hybrid parabolic trough collector: A machine learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:16:p:2561-:d:1459404. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.