IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v12y2023i1p41-d1305854.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Dynamic CGE Model for Optimization in Business Analytics: Simulating the Impact of Investment Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Ana Medina-López

    (Departamento de Economía Financiera y Contabilidad, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, 28032 Madrid, Spain)

  • Montserrat Jiménez-Partearroyo

    (Economía Aplicada II y Fundamentos Análisis Económico Department, Facultad de Ciencias de la Economía y de la Empresa, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, 28032 Madrid, Spain)

  • Ángeles Cámara

    (Departamento de Economía Financiera y Contabilidad, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, 28032 Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

This study formulates a mathematical dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model within a rational expectations framework, adhering to neo-classical principles. It emphasizes the significant role of agents’ expectations in determining the broader economic trajectory over time. The model combines microeconomic and macroeconomic perspectives by merging the concept of intertemporal choice with savings behavior. Its mathematical foundations are derived and calibrated using data from a social accounting matrix to enhance its simulation capabilities. The paper presents a practical simulation investigating the economic implications of a strategic investment impact within an specific European region, Madrid as the case of study. Such demand shock affects sectors such as electronics, food, pharmaceuticals, and education. The study models the long-term effects of heightened investment and persistent demand-side shocks. The research demonstrates the CGE model’s ability to forecast economic shifts toward a new equilibrium after an investment shock, proving its utility for assessing the impacts of extensive environmental policies within a European context. The work’s originality lies in its detailed mathematical formulation, contributing to theoretical discourse and practical application in business analytics.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Medina-López & Montserrat Jiménez-Partearroyo & Ángeles Cámara, 2023. "A Dynamic CGE Model for Optimization in Business Analytics: Simulating the Impact of Investment Shocks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-42, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2023:i:1:p:41-:d:1305854
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/1/41/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/1/41/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaime de MELO & Sherman ROBINSON, 2015. "Product Differentiation And The Treatment Of Foreign Trade In Computable General Equilibrium Models Of Small Economies," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 2, pages 21-41, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    3. David Romer, 1986. "A Simple General Equilibrium Version of the Baumol-Tobin Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 663-685.
    4. Chan, Ying Tung & Zhao, Hong, 2023. "Optimal carbon tax rates in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a supply chain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Sato, Misato, 2014. "Product level embodied carbon flows in bilateral trade," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 106-117.
    6. Oscar Bajo & Antonio Gómez Gómez-Plana, 1999. "Efectos de cambios impositivos en un modelo de equilibrio general aplicado: un análisis de la reforma de 1995," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 9905, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    7. Victor Ginsburgh & Michiel Keyzer, 2002. "The Structure of Applied General Equilibrium Models," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262571579, April.
    8. Shiyu Liu & Ou Liu & Junyang Chen, 2023. "A Review on Business Analytics: Definitions, Techniques, Applications and Challenges," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-20, February.
    9. M.S. Deepak & Carol Taylor West & Thomas H. Spreen, 2001. "Local Government Portfolios and Regional Growth: Some Combined Dynamic CGE/Optimal Control Results," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 219-254, May.
    10. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 1998. "Forecasting and Policy Analysis with a Dynamic CGE Model of Australia," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-90, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    11. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-1051, September.
    12. Madanmohan Ghosh, 2007. "R&D Policies and Endogenous Growth: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of the Case for Canada," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 187-203, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mutambatsere, Emelly, 2006. "Trade Policy Reforms in the Cereals Sector of the SADC Region: Implications on Food Security," Working Papers 127055, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    2. Smith, Richard D. & Yago, Milton & Millar, Michael & Coast, Jo, 2005. "Assessing the macroeconomic impact of a healthcare problem: The application of computable general equilibrium analysis to antimicrobial resistance," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1055-1075, November.
    3. Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Zhi, 1995. "Beyond the Uruguay Round: The implications of an Asian free trade area," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 35-90.
    4. Ahmed, Vaqar & O' Donoghue, Cathal, 2007. "CGE-Microsimulation Modelling: A Survey," MPRA Paper 9307, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Mark Partridge & Dan Rickman, 2010. "Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modelling for Regional Economic Development Analysis," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1311-1328.
    6. Kym Anderson, 2003. "Measuring Effects of Trade Policy Distortions: How Far Have We Come?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 413-440, April.
    7. Jean-Sébastien Lenfant & Jérôme Lallement, 2004. "L'équilibre général comme savoir : de Walras à nos jours," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01765036, HAL.
    8. repec:dgr:rugsom:99c01 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Sabine Mage-Bertomeu, 2006. "Les modèles d'équilibre général appliqués à la politique commerciale : développements récents," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(3), pages 357-381.
    10. Hess, Sebastian & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2007. "Assessing general and partial equilibrium simulations of Doha round outcomes using meta-analysis," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 67, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    11. Thissen, Mark, 1998. "A classification of empirical CGE modelling," Research Report 99C01, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    12. Jean-François Gautier, 2000. "Réformes douanières au Bénin et libéralisation commerciale du Nigeria : Un modèle EGC avec concurrence imparfaite appliquée au commerce trans-frontalier," Working Papers DT/2000/03, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    13. Hinojosa-Ojeda, Raul A. & Robinson, Sherman & Lewis, Jeffrey D., 1995. "Regional integration options for Central America and the Caribbean after NAFTA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 121-148.
    14. Johannes Bröcker & Jean Mercenier, 2011. "General Equilibrium Models for Transportation Economics," Chapters, in: André de Palma & Robin Lindsey & Emile Quinet & Roger Vickerman (ed.), A Handbook of Transport Economics, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2020. "Inflation And Growth With The Miu Approach And The Equation Of Exchange," Social Sciences and Education Research Review, Department of Communication, Journalism and Education Sciences, University of Craiova, vol. 7(1), pages 45-71, July.
    16. Douch, Mustapha & Edwards, Huw & Landman, Todd & Mallick, Sushanta, 2022. "Aid effectiveness: Human rights as a conditionality measure," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    17. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1696 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Filho, Leonardo Campos, 1998. "Unilateral Liberalisation and Mercosul: Implications for Resource Allocation," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 52(4), October.
    19. Hinojosa-Ojeda, Raul & Robinson, Sherman, 1992. "Labor Issues in a North American Free Trade Area," CUDARE Working Papers 198601, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    20. Jie He & David Roland-Holst, 2010. "Economic Growth, Energy demand and Atmospheric Pollution: Challenges and Opportunities for China in the future 30 years," Cahiers de recherche 10-11, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    21. Chan, Gabriel & Reilly, John M. & Paltsev, Sergey & Chen, Y.-H. Henry, 2012. "The Canadian oil sands industry under carbon constraints," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 540-550.
    22. McDonald, Scott & Kirsten, Johann F. & van Zyl, Johan, 1997. "A social accounting matrix for modeling agricultural policy reform in South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 36(4), pages 1-20, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2023:i:1:p:41-:d:1305854. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.