IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v11y2023i5p1115-d1077832.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparison of Statistical Production Models for a Solar and a Wind Power Plant

Author

Listed:
  • Irina Meghea

    (Department of Mathematical Methods and Models, Faculty of Applied Sciences, University Politehnica of Bucharest, 313 Splaiul Independentei, 060042 Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

Mathematical models to characterize and forecast the power production of photovoltaic and eolian plants are justified by the benefits of these sustainable energies, the increased usage in recent years, and the necessity to be integrated into the general energy system. In this paper, starting from two collections of data representing the power production hourly measured at a solar plant and a wind farm, adequate time series methods have been used to draw appropriate statistical models for their productions. The data are smoothed in both cases using moving average and continuous time series have been obtained leading to some models in good agreement with experimental data. For the solar power plant, the developed models can predict the specific power of the next day, next week, and next month, with the most accurate being the monthly model, while for wind power only a monthly model could be validated. Using the CUSUM (cumulative sum control chart) method, the analyzed data formed stationary time series with seasonality. The similar methods used for both sets of data (from the solar plant and wind farm) were analyzed and compared. When compare with other studies which propose production models starting from different measurements involving meteorological data and/or machinery characteristics, an innovative element of this paper consists in the data set on which it is based, this being the production itself. The novelty and the importance of this research reside in the simplicity and the possibility to be reproduced for other related conditions even though every new set of data (provided from other power plants) requires further investigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Irina Meghea, 2023. "Comparison of Statistical Production Models for a Solar and a Wind Power Plant," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:5:p:1115-:d:1077832
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/5/1115/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/5/1115/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A-Hyun Jung & Dong-Hyun Lee & Jin-Young Kim & Chang Ki Kim & Hyun-Goo Kim & Yung-Seop Lee, 2022. "Regional Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Vector Autoregression Model in South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-13, October.
    2. David Barbosa de Alencar & Carolina De Mattos Affonso & Roberto Célio Limão de Oliveira & Jorge Laureano Moya Rodríguez & Jandecy Cabral Leite & José Carlos Reston Filho, 2017. "Different Models for Forecasting Wind Power Generation: Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-27, November.
    3. Jussi Ekström & Matti Koivisto & Ilkka Mellin & Robert John Millar & Matti Lehtonen, 2018. "A Statistical Modeling Methodology for Long-Term Wind Generation and Power Ramp Simulations in New Generation Locations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-18, September.
    4. Manfredo Guilizzoni & Paloma Maldonado Eizaguirre, 2022. "Trend Lines and Japanese Candlesticks Applied to the Forecasting of Wind Speed Data Series," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, January.
    5. Prema, V. & Rao, K. Uma, 2015. "Development of statistical time series models for solar power prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 100-109.
    6. Foley, Aoife M. & Leahy, Paul G. & Marvuglia, Antonino & McKeogh, Eamon J., 2012. "Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-8.
    7. Sulaiman, M.Yusof & Hlaing Oo, W.M & Abd Wahab, Mahdi & Zakaria, Azmi, 1999. "Application of beta distribution model to Malaysian sunshine data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 573-579.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vladimir Simankov & Pavel Buchatskiy & Semen Teploukhov & Stefan Onishchenko & Anatoliy Kazak & Petr Chetyrbok, 2023. "Review of Estimating and Predicting Models of the Wind Energy Amount," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-24, August.
    2. Sharifzadeh, Mahdi & Sikinioti-Lock, Alexandra & Shah, Nilay, 2019. "Machine-learning methods for integrated renewable power generation: A comparative study of artificial neural networks, support vector regression, and Gaussian Process Regression," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 513-538.
    3. López, Germánico & Arboleya, Pablo, 2022. "Short-term wind speed forecasting over complex terrain using linear regression models and multivariable LSTM and NARX networks in the Andes Mountains, Ecuador," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 351-368.
    4. Kubik, M.L. & Coker, P.J. & Hunt, C., 2012. "The role of conventional generation in managing variability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 253-261.
    5. Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Lim, Edwin & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2018. "A database infrastructure to implement real-time solar and wind power generation intra-hour forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 513-525.
    6. Flores, Juan J. & Graff, Mario & Rodriguez, Hector, 2012. "Evolutive design of ARMA and ANN models for time series forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 225-230.
    7. Pin Li & Jinsuo Zhang, 2019. "Is China’s Energy Supply Sustainable? New Research Model Based on the Exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1) Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, January.
    8. Yıldıran, Uğur & Kayahan, İsmail, 2018. "Risk-averse stochastic model predictive control-based real-time operation method for a wind energy generation system supported by a pumped hydro storage unit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 631-643.
    9. Yang, Mao & Wang, Da & Xu, Chuanyu & Dai, Bozhi & Ma, Miaomiao & Su, Xin, 2023. "Power transfer characteristics in fluctuation partition algorithm for wind speed and its application to wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 582-594.
    10. Liu, Wen & Hu, Weihao & Lund, Henrik & Chen, Zhe, 2013. "Electric vehicles and large-scale integration of wind power – The case of Inner Mongolia in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 445-456.
    11. Botelho, D.F. & de Oliveira, L.W. & Dias, B.H. & Soares, T.A. & Moraes, C.A., 2022. "Integrated prosumers–DSO approach applied in peer-to-peer energy and reserve tradings considering network constraints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    12. Pandžić, Hrvoje & Morales, Juan M. & Conejo, Antonio J. & Kuzle, Igor, 2013. "Offering model for a virtual power plant based on stochastic programming," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 282-292.
    13. Pasta, Edoardo & Faedo, Nicolás & Mattiazzo, Giuliana & Ringwood, John V., 2023. "Towards data-driven and data-based control of wave energy systems: Classification, overview, and critical assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    14. Santamaría-Bonfil, G. & Reyes-Ballesteros, A. & Gershenson, C., 2016. "Wind speed forecasting for wind farms: A method based on support vector regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 790-809.
    15. Sen Guo & Haoran Zhao & Huiru Zhao, 2017. "A New Hybrid Wind Power Forecaster Using the Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition Method and a Relevance Vector Machine Optimized by the Ant Lion Optimizer," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    16. Wasilewski, J. & Baczynski, D., 2017. "Short-term electric energy production forecasting at wind power plants in pareto-optimality context," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 177-187.
    17. Seyed Reza Mirnezami & Amin Mohseni Cheraghlou, 2022. "Wind Power in Iran: Technical, Policy, and Financial Aspects for Better Energy Resource Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-18, April.
    18. Kim, Deockho & Hur, Jin, 2018. "Short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind energy resources using the enhanced ensemble method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 211-226.
    19. Reikard, Gordon & Haupt, Sue Ellen & Jensen, Tara, 2017. "Forecasting ground-level irradiance over short horizons: Time series, meteorological, and time-varying parameter models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 474-485.
    20. Àlex Alonso & Jordi de la Hoz & Helena Martín & Sergio Coronas & Pep Salas & José Matas, 2020. "A Comprehensive Model for the Design of a Microgrid under Regulatory Constraints Using Synthetical Data Generation and Stochastic Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-26, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:5:p:1115-:d:1077832. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.