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A Comparison between Explainable Machine Learning Methods for Classification and Regression Problems in the Actuarial Context

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  • Catalina Lozano-Murcia

    (Department of Information Systems and Technologies, University of Castilla La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real, Spain
    Master Program in Actuarial Science, Escuela Colombiana de Ingeniería Julio Garavito, Bogota D.C. 205, Colombia
    Current address: School of Computer Engineering, University of Castilla La Mancha, Paseo de la Universidad, 4, 13071 Ciudad Real, Spain.)

  • Francisco P. Romero

    (Department of Information Systems and Technologies, University of Castilla La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real, Spain)

  • Jesus Serrano-Guerrero

    (Department of Information Systems and Technologies, University of Castilla La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real, Spain)

  • Jose A. Olivas

    (Department of Information Systems and Technologies, University of Castilla La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real, Spain)

Abstract

Machine learning, a subfield of artificial intelligence, emphasizes the creation of algorithms capable of learning from data and generating predictions. However, in actuarial science, the interpretability of these models often presents challenges, raising concerns about their accuracy and reliability. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has emerged to address these issues by facilitating the development of accurate and comprehensible models. This paper conducts a comparative analysis of various XAI approaches for tackling distinct data-driven insurance problems. The machine learning methods are evaluated based on their accuracy, employing the mean absolute error for regression problems and the accuracy metric for classification problems. Moreover, the interpretability of these methods is assessed through quantitative and qualitative measures of the explanations offered by each explainability technique. The findings reveal that the performance of different XAI methods varies depending on the particular insurance problem at hand. Our research underscores the significance of considering accuracy and interpretability when selecting a machine-learning approach for resolving data-driven insurance challenges. By developing accurate and comprehensible models, we can enhance the transparency and trustworthiness of the predictions generated by these models.

Suggested Citation

  • Catalina Lozano-Murcia & Francisco P. Romero & Jesus Serrano-Guerrero & Jose A. Olivas, 2023. "A Comparison between Explainable Machine Learning Methods for Classification and Regression Problems in the Actuarial Context," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-20, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:14:p:3088-:d:1193020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher Blier-Wong & Hélène Cossette & Luc Lamontagne & Etienne Marceau, 2020. "Machine Learning in P&C Insurance: A Review for Pricing and Reserving," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-26, December.
    2. Vladislav N. Kovalnogov & Ruslan V. Fedorov & Dmitry A. Generalov & Andrey V. Chukalin & Vasilios N. Katsikis & Spyridon D. Mourtas & Theodore E. Simos, 2022. "Portfolio Insurance through Error-Correction Neural Networks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(18), pages 1-14, September.
    3. Roel Henckaerts & Marie-Pier Côté & Katrien Antonio & Roel Verbelen, 2021. "Boosting Insights in Insurance Tariff Plans with Tree-Based Machine Learning Methods," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 255-285, April.
    4. Shapiro, Arnold F., 2004. "Fuzzy logic in insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 399-424, October.
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