IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v10y2022i8p1307-d793900.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Stacking Ensemble Deep Learning Model for Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Twitter Comments on Bitcoin

Author

Listed:
  • Zi Ye

    (Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Yinxu Wu

    (Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Hui Chen

    (Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, China)

  • Yi Pan

    (Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, China)

  • Qingshan Jiang

    (Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, China)

Abstract

Cryptocurrencies can be considered as mathematical money. As the most famous cryptocurrency, the Bitcoin price forecasting model is one of the popular mathematical models in financial technology because of its large price fluctuations and complexity. This paper proposes a novel ensemble deep learning model to predict Bitcoin’s next 30 min prices by using price data, technical indicators and sentiment indexes, which integrates two kinds of neural networks, long short-term memory (LSTM) and gate recurrent unit (GRU), with stacking ensemble technique to improve the accuracy of decision. Because of the real-time updates of comments on social media, this paper uses social media texts instead of news websites as the source data of public opinion. It is processed by linguistic statistical method to form the sentiment indexes. Meanwhile, as a financial market forecasting model, the model selects the technical indicators as input as well. Real data from September 2017 to January 2021 is used to train and evaluate the model. The experimental results show that the near-real time prediction has a better performance, with a mean absolute error (MAE) 88.74% better than the daily prediction. The purpose of this work is to explain our solution and show that the ensemble method has better performance and can better help investors in making the right investment decision than other traditional models.

Suggested Citation

  • Zi Ye & Yinxu Wu & Hui Chen & Yi Pan & Qingshan Jiang, 2022. "A Stacking Ensemble Deep Learning Model for Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Twitter Comments on Bitcoin," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:8:p:1307-:d:793900
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/8/1307/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/8/1307/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jong-Min Kim & Chanho Cho & Chulhee Jun, 2022. "Forecasting the Price of the Cryptocurrency Using Linear and Nonlinear Error Correction Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-10, February.
    2. S M Raju & Ali Mohammad Tarif, 2020. "Real-Time Prediction of BITCOIN Price using Machine Learning Techniques and Public Sentiment Analysis," Papers 2006.14473, arXiv.org.
    3. Shen, Ze & Wan, Qing & Leatham, David J., 2019. "Bitcoin Return Volatility Forecasting: A Comparative Study of GARCH Model and Machine Learning Model," 2019 Annual Meeting, July 21-23, Atlanta, Georgia 290696, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. R. K. Jana & Indranil Ghosh & Debojyoti Das, 2021. "A differential evolution-based regression framework for forecasting Bitcoin price," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 306(1), pages 295-320, November.
    5. Katsiampa, Paraskevi, 2017. "Volatility estimation for Bitcoin: A comparison of GARCH models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 3-6.
    6. Ahmed Ibrahim & Rasha Kashef & Menglu Li & Esteban Valencia & Eric Huang, 2020. "Bitcoin Network Mechanics: Forecasting the BTC Closing Price Using Vector Auto-Regression Models Based on Endogenous and Exogenous Feature Variables," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, August.
    7. Suhwan Ji & Jongmin Kim & Hyeonseung Im, 2019. "A Comparative Study of Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Deep Learning," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(10), pages 1-20, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rolando Rubilar-Torrealba & Karime Chahuán-Jiménez & Hanns de la Fuente-Mella, 2023. "A Stochastic Analysis of the Effect of Trading Parameters on the Stability of the Financial Markets Using a Bayesian Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-14, May.
    2. José Luis Miralles-Quirós & María Mar Miralles-Quirós, 2022. "Mathematics, Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain Technology," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-2, June.
    3. Yingjie Zhu & Jiageng Ma & Fangqing Gu & Jie Wang & Zhijuan Li & Youyao Zhang & Jiani Xu & Yifan Li & Yiwen Wang & Xiangqun Yang, 2023. "Price Prediction of Bitcoin Based on Adaptive Feature Selection and Model Optimization," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Ali Mohammadjafari, 2024. "Comparative Study of Bitcoin Price Prediction," Papers 2405.08089, arXiv.org.
    5. Farman Ullah Khan & Faridoon Khan & Parvez Ahmed Shaikh, 2023. "Forecasting returns volatility of cryptocurrency by applying various deep learning algorithms," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Rasoul Amirzadeh & Dhananjay Thiruvady & Asef Nazari & Mong Shan Ee, 2023. "Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Predicting Cryptocurrency Price Directions: Uncovering Causal Relationships," Papers 2306.08157, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mingzhe Wei & Georgios Sermpinis & Charalampos Stasinakis, 2023. "Forecasting and trading Bitcoin with machine learning techniques and a hybrid volatility/sentiment leverage," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 852-871, July.
    2. Sudersan Behera & Sarat Chandra Nayak & A. V. S. Pavan Kumar, 2024. "Evaluating the Performance of Metaheuristic Based Artificial Neural Networks for Cryptocurrency Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 1219-1258, August.
    3. Yuze Li & Shangrong Jiang & Xuerong Li & Shouyang Wang, 2022. "Hybrid data decomposition-based deep learning for Bitcoin prediction and algorithm trading," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
    4. Surinder Singh Khurana & Parvinder Singh & Naresh Kumar Garg, 2024. "OG-CAT: A Novel Algorithmic Trading Alternative to Investment in Crypto Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(5), pages 1735-1756, May.
    5. Ozdamar, Melisa & Sensoy, Ahmet & Akdeniz, Levent, 2022. "Retail vs institutional investor attention in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    6. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Ma, Chao-Qun & Kong, Xiao-Lin & Baltas, Konstantinos & Zureigat, Qasim, 2022. "Past, present, and future of the application of machine learning in cryptocurrency research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Afees A. Salisu & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Ibrahim D. Raheem, 2018. "Analysing the distribution properties of Bitcoin returns," Working Papers 058, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    8. Christie Smith & Aaron Kumar, 2018. "Crypto‐Currencies – An Introduction To Not‐So‐Funny Moneys," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5), pages 1531-1559, December.
    9. Kakinaka, Shinji & Umeno, Ken, 2021. "Exploring asymmetric multifractal cross-correlations of price–volatility and asymmetric volatility dynamics in cryptocurrency markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).
    10. Hau, Liya & Zhu, Huiming & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sun, Wuqin, 2021. "Does transaction activity predict Bitcoin returns? Evidence from quantile-on-quantile analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    11. Białkowski, Jędrzej, 2020. "Cryptocurrencies in institutional investors’ portfolios: Evidence from industry stop-loss rules," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    12. Lian, Yu-Min & Chen, Jun-Home, 2021. "Pricing virtual currency-linked derivatives with time-inhomogeneity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 424-439.
    13. Syed Zwick, Hélène & Syed, Sarfaraz Ali Shah, 2019. "Bitcoin and gold prices: A fledging long-term relationship," MPRA Paper 92512, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Corbet, Shaen & Katsiampa, Paraskevi & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2020. "Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between Bitcoin, altcoins and traditional financial assets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Ghosh, Indranil & Chaudhuri, Tamal Datta & Alfaro-Cortés, Esteban & Gámez, Matías & García, Noelia, 2022. "A hybrid approach to forecasting futures prices with simultaneous consideration of optimality in ensemble feature selection and advanced artificial intelligence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    16. Sheng‐Tun Li & Kuei‐Chen Chiu & Chien‐Chang Wu, 2023. "Apply big data analytics for forecasting the prices of precious metals futures to construct a hedging strategy for industrial material procurement," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 942-959, March.
    17. Saggese, Pietro & Belmonte, Alessandro & Dimitri, Nicola & Facchini, Angelo & Böhme, Rainer, 2023. "Arbitrageurs in the Bitcoin ecosystem: Evidence from user-level trading patterns in the Mt. Gox exchange platform," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 251-270.
    18. Vidal-Tomás, David & Ibañez, Ana, 2018. "Semi-strong efficiency of Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 259-265.
    19. Wang Guizhou & Zhang Si & Yu Tao & Ning Yu, 2021. "A Systematic Overview of Blockchain Research," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 205-238, June.
    20. Köchling, Gerrit & Schmidtke, Philipp & Posch, Peter N., 2020. "Volatility forecasting accuracy for Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:8:p:1307-:d:793900. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.